GOLD Waiting for Manipulation Phase at 2019!

2023년 11월 28일

Positive trend and multi-month peak: the price of gold has shown a positive trend for four consecutive days and is near a multi-month peak. on monday, the price surpassed the horizontal barrier of $2,008-2,010, reaching $2,018, the highest level since mid-may.

Fed policy expectations: the positive momentum in gold is attributed to the belief that the federal reserve (fed) has completed the cycle of raising interest rates and is expected to shift towards a more accommodative policy in 2024. this expectation supports gold prices.

Inflationary pressures and weakness of the us dollar: anticipation of a pause in the fed's monetary tightening is fueled by signs of easing inflationary pressures. this situation weakens the us dollar (usd), further contributing to the positive outlook for gold, which is a non-yielding asset.

Concerns about global economic contraction: gold is considered a safe-haven asset, and concerns about a global economic contraction contribute to its support. investors often turn to gold during periods of economic uncertainty.

Impact of asian equity markets and the us dollar: while global economic concerns support gold, a positive tone in asian equity markets is noted as a headwind. additionally, the depreciation of the us dollar contributes to the positive trend in gold prices.

Caution among traders: despite the positive momentum, bullish traders appear cautious and are not making aggressive bets. there is a preference to wait for additional information that can move the market, such as the release of the personal consumption expenditure (pce) price index from the united states.

Upcoming events: short-term trading opportunities are expected based on the release of the conference board's consumer confidence index and speeches by influential members of the federal open market committee (fomc) later in the week.

Trading forecast: I expect a liquidation of price above the level of the last swing high h4 and then enter to sell during the distribution phase with a target of retesting the previous supply at the level of 1997. i wish everyone happy trading, greetings from Nicola.