TOTAL Carnage

2022년 5월 11일

A lot of investors are probably asking, WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? We're seeing unbelievable amounts of deleveraging, not just in the cryptocurrency market. Over the last several months, I have posted consistently on why I believed there was significant risk for something like this to occur.

Within the crypto market itself, we're now seeing consistent bad news. Trust is evaporating, as participants now feel that nowhere is safe. The profiteers and the moguls are now being exposed, and the system is failing. Microstrategy's share price is in freefall - and this is something I suggested could happen months ago, before the broader market was considering this as a significant risk. Here is my post about MSTR and Bitcoin from April 30th:

Bitcoin has declined over 20% since that post, while MSTR has collapsed by a staggering 50%+. This tells me that it is very possible investors see Bitcoin has worth far below its market value, and see it as a big risk to Michael Saylor. That means Bitcoin can fall quickly to sub-20k levels.

Bitcoin has also now broken its long term trend against SPX convincingly.

If Bitcoin is to head back to those lower levels against SPX, and if SPX drops by another 30-50%, Bitcoin could collapse to lows not seen since the 2018-2020 bear market, meaning Saylor would indeed be liquidated at 3.5k. Already, many altcoins are deflating at an alarming rate back to some of those levels. And why would SPX drop by another 30-40%? It's still a ways above a pretty significant long term trendline. If markets can't get it together soon, that remains a glaring target.

Here is where I wrote about the asset bubble and the (actual) death of Bitcoin:

Recently, I wrote about a potential altcoin collapse after noticing the long term trendline break for Litecoin:

I even wrote about an altcoin capitulation back in March, right before the last major market bounce:

Now as for that bounce to $46-48k, here is the post where I speculated why it could happen. Pressing play on this one is fun.

Here are a few of my bearish altcoin posts from the last few months, including where I showed weakness in the Terra (LUNA) chart, while it was still above $90. Pressing play on these charts is also fun, but in a bit of a sickening way.

Terra (LUNA)

Cosmos (ATOM)

Solana

Polkadot

Looking at the above chart for this analysis, you can see that the TOTAL cryptocurrency market cap is now back inside of a broadening wedge pattern, which momentarily broke out to the upside this year.

This is after already breaking a couple of long term uptrends. Falling back inside the wedge and failing to close this week above leaves room for TOTAL to continue its free-fall towards 2018 valuations. This means that Bitcoin can return to 20k or lower within the next week or two, while ETH can venture back to near $1000. There is not much technical support at this point for the market, should the current level fail to hold. This is what a free-fall truly looks like.

If this occurs, it would be continued disaster for the crypto space, as exchanges would likely not have enough stablecoin liquidity to support supply from sellers. Although it may seem impossible, the situation would actually escalate. I can't even imagine the level of nonsense that would occur in this instance, but people's funds would not be particularly safe, and it might even be impossible to sell. If exchanges do collapse, then it would be revealed that Tether was simply the largest counterfeiting scheme in human history, and quite successful. People forget that even once these schemes are revealed, the leaders of the schemes have already won and pocketed billions of dollars in real cash.

Is there any hope? Sure, TOTAL could bounce back over that trendline before the end of the week. That would be a decent bottom signal. But then, in looking at charts for many "promising" projects over the years you'll see that most have failed to maintain significant value. People are holding out for another cycle, thinking that this is just "Crypto winter," and that the hype will occur again. I believe that crypto reached a critical mass - essentially the minimum required value for it to have a permanent negative impact on the broader sentiment towards the market. That value was over $2 Trillion. If this market were completely erased from existence, almost nothing would change about the world, except we'd need to find something more meaningful to believe in. All that energy that has been spent in crypto communities (much if it actually positive energy) can easily go elsewhere.

This is not meant as financial advice. This represents my opinion, and so is meant for speculation and entertainment only. Over the summer, I plan to finally transition to YouTube for video content. So that’s something to look forward to!

-Victor Cobra

2022년 5월 12일

노트

This post from March 27th provides a pretty good overview of why I took issue with Do Kwon and Terra (LUNA), and why I saw it as a bearish signal:

2022년 5월 12일

노트

Now that this bearish gloating post has been featured, the bottom is probably in. Obviously that’s how it works ;) Let’s see if we can at least get a decent bounce. High volume is at least a good sign of some demand, but ETH is beginning to look concerning, as noted on my recent post about the ETH/BTC ratio.

2022년 5월 13일

노트

Decent volume on this bounce - if Bitcoin can clear that $33-34k level, perhaps at least the short term bottom is in. Otherwise, this cane easily roll back over, particularly if ETH shows weakness.

2023년 7월 21일

노트

It's been over a year since this post, and the crypto market is still below where it was at the time of writing. The low target was reached, but a bigger recovery has not truly happened market-wide. TOTAL remains well below the 100 week MA, and any sizable drop from here is likely to make that weekly death cross look worse.