Current Market 79 Billion
Up an impressive 200,000% over the last 20 years, Netflix reached an all time high of $700.99 back in November 2021.
It has since corrected a whopping 77% and hovers around the $165-$180 range.
The biggest correction Netflix had to endure was back in 2011-2012, it reached an all time high of around $43 before a staggering 82.5% drop.
If we pull a fib from its 2002 low, to its ETH in 2011, we can see that price found support at the 0.382 level. (Fib pulled from body close to body close)
I've then pulled a fib from the 0.382 to its November 2021 ETH. A similar 82.5% correction would place it once again in the 0.382 range.
We also have a lifelong trendline approaching that could also be tested as support.
If the 0.382 doesn't hold, long term bulls should look for buys at the next fib levels.
RSI is at record lows, Stochastic oversold. We could have a little rally before testing the 0.382/trendline as we did back in 2012.
We could even just rally from here, only time will tell! If your bullish long term, DCAing is best.
Here's an extract from from the Q1 shareholders growth outlook report sent out in April.
In the near term though, we’re not growing revenue as fast as we’d like. COVID clouded the picture by
significantly increasing our growth in 2020, leading us to believe that most of our slowing growth in 2021
was due to the COVID pull forward. Now, we believe there are four main inter-related factors at work.
First, it’s increasingly clear that the pace of growth into our underlying addressable market (broadband homes)
is partly dependent on factors we don’t directly control, like the uptake of connected TVs
(since the majority of our viewing is on TVs), the adoption of on-demand entertainment, and data costs.
We believe these factors will keep improving over time, so that all broadband households will be potential Netflix customers.
Second, in addition to our 222m paying households, we estimate that Netflix is being shared with over 100m additional households,
including over 30m in the UCAN region. Account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn’t changed much over the years,
but, coupled with the first factor, means it’s harder to grow membership in many markets - an issue that was obscured by our COVID growth.
Third, competition for viewing with linear TV as well as YouTube, Amazon, and Hulu has been robust for the last 15 years.
However, over the last three years, as traditional entertainment companies realized streaming is the future, many new streaming services have also launched.
While our US television viewing share, for example, has been steady to up according to Nielsen, we want to grow that share faster.
Higher view share is an indicator of higher satisfaction, which supports higher retention and revenue.
Fourth, macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation , geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact as well.
Hope this helps, yours truly-
Thomas Shelby, Shelby Company Limited.
Speculative Setup, DYOR. Allow 3-24 months for this idea.
Up an impressive 200,000% over the last 20 years, Netflix reached an all time high of $700.99 back in November 2021.
It has since corrected a whopping 77% and hovers around the $165-$180 range.
The biggest correction Netflix had to endure was back in 2011-2012, it reached an all time high of around $43 before a staggering 82.5% drop.
If we pull a fib from its 2002 low, to its ETH in 2011, we can see that price found support at the 0.382 level. (Fib pulled from body close to body close)
I've then pulled a fib from the 0.382 to its November 2021 ETH. A similar 82.5% correction would place it once again in the 0.382 range.
We also have a lifelong trendline approaching that could also be tested as support.
If the 0.382 doesn't hold, long term bulls should look for buys at the next fib levels.
RSI is at record lows, Stochastic oversold. We could have a little rally before testing the 0.382/trendline as we did back in 2012.
We could even just rally from here, only time will tell! If your bullish long term, DCAing is best.
Here's an extract from from the Q1 shareholders growth outlook report sent out in April.
In the near term though, we’re not growing revenue as fast as we’d like. COVID clouded the picture by
significantly increasing our growth in 2020, leading us to believe that most of our slowing growth in 2021
was due to the COVID pull forward. Now, we believe there are four main inter-related factors at work.
First, it’s increasingly clear that the pace of growth into our underlying addressable market (broadband homes)
is partly dependent on factors we don’t directly control, like the uptake of connected TVs
(since the majority of our viewing is on TVs), the adoption of on-demand entertainment, and data costs.
We believe these factors will keep improving over time, so that all broadband households will be potential Netflix customers.
Second, in addition to our 222m paying households, we estimate that Netflix is being shared with over 100m additional households,
including over 30m in the UCAN region. Account sharing as a percentage of our paying membership hasn’t changed much over the years,
but, coupled with the first factor, means it’s harder to grow membership in many markets - an issue that was obscured by our COVID growth.
Third, competition for viewing with linear TV as well as YouTube, Amazon, and Hulu has been robust for the last 15 years.
However, over the last three years, as traditional entertainment companies realized streaming is the future, many new streaming services have also launched.
While our US television viewing share, for example, has been steady to up according to Nielsen, we want to grow that share faster.
Higher view share is an indicator of higher satisfaction, which supports higher retention and revenue.
Fourth, macro factors, including sluggish economic growth, increasing inflation , geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
and some continued disruption from COVID are likely having an impact as well.
Hope this helps, yours truly-
Thomas Shelby, Shelby Company Limited.
Speculative Setup, DYOR. Allow 3-24 months for this idea.
