Ethereum | ETH & ETF 🌔

99 days are left until the Ethereum spot ETF Approval and so many good news on the way 🚀
lets see why we are bullish on Eth

• EIP4844 on March 13th
• Many Asset Managers chasing ETH Yield
• ETF Inflow > GBTC sell off
• Multiple L2's Launching

📅Feb & March

The Ethereum Dencun upgrade will take place on March 13th and looking back at last year's Shanghai Upgrade, ETH +50% from about a month before to the day which ETH might behave in a similar way

📅March & April

Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 17 and Historically Bitcoin has averaged a +70% increase from about 50 days before to the day of the halving.The halving event will indirectly help sustain the ETH rally

📅May & Moon

Earliest decision for the 7 ETH spot ETFs is set for May 23 While the scenario won't play out the same, the market knows that Spot BTC ETF saw BTC jump +80% in the 3 months pre launch.
Also a rally without any market corrections is not realistic

There were at least 3 dips before BTC ETF Approval:
- Fake Cointelegraph ETF News (where is that Intern? probably he is the CEO now!)
- Matrixport ETF Rejection Scenario
- SEC Hacked

Even after BTC ETF approval, a GBTC Sell off event occurred.
Similarly, as the ETH ETF deadline nears, expect FUDs like:
- Celsius ETH Sell-off
- SEC "Security token"
- Coinbase·SEC Lawsuit
- Grayscale's ETHE

These FUDs will also likely provide 2-4 juicy dips to buy. Why Juciy?
Because Onchain signals often lead market sentiment so lets check exchanges eth

also Ethereum balance on Exchanges is getting very low
- The Merge burning & EIP1559
- Liquid Staking & Restaking
- Other important Ethereum projects like Starknet, LayerZero,are expected to launch in H1 2024

🇼allstreet chasing ETH Yield

ARK/21Shares' case may set a precedent, indicating other institutions could also include staking in their ETF proposals plus Franklin has expressed interest in staking the ETH held by their proposed fund.

Conclusion 🐂

ETH has cleared the hurdles from past market downturns (FTX, Celsius, GBTC) and is now entering a new phase driven by ETF demand.As the ETF decision nears, I think we could witness a strategic rotation of capital from BTC to ETH in the upcoming weeks so Im All In

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Eth/Btc

액티브 트레이드:

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Justin Sun address purchased 54,721 ETH through Binance and DEX in the past 32 hours, worth approximately $154.4 million. The wallet withdrew 500 million USDT from HTX on February 18 and deposited 50 million USDT into Binance today

액티브 트레이드:

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Grayscale CEO says a spot Ethereum ETF is "a matter of when, not a matter of if."

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Ethereum Foundation: The Dencun network upgrade has successfully activated on all testnets. It is now set for deployment on the Ethereum mainnet and will activate on the network at epoch 269568, occuring on March 13, 2024 at 13:55 UTC. Most notably the introduction of ephemeral data blobs with EIP-4844, also known as "protodanksharding", which will help reduce L2 transaction fees.

액티브 트레이드:

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eth is not even started yet

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Ethereum's funding rates have seen a significant uptick, reaching levels reminiscent of late 2020 when Ethereum was poised for a robust bullish rally toward its all-time high

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Vitalik: If quantum computers are available, and bad actors are able to use them to steal users’ funds. The blockchain would have to hard fork and users would have to download new wallet software, but few users would lose their funds. The infrastructure to implement a hard fork like this could in principle start to be built tomorrow, making the Ethereum ecosystem maximally ready in case a quantum emergency does actually come to pass

액티브 트레이드:

we just hit the 4k

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a decrease in the exchange reserves means there isn’t much selling pressure in the Ethereum market. If this steep downtrend continues, the price could go up even further

코멘트:

> Sell all of our ETH.
> Tell Gary to drop the ETF FUD.
> Tell Gary to drop the security FUD.
> Hit em with the headlines.
> The plebs will panic sell.
> We buy up ALL the coins.
> Force the SEC to lose every case.
> Approve the ETF.

Thanks for playing!

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Brian Quintenz: “When the SEC allowed ETH Futures ETFs to trade on its regulated security exchanges, it explicitly acknowledged the status of the underlying, ETH, as being a non-security and outside of its jurisdiction”.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that even if the U.S. SEC designates Ethereum as a security, it is still possible to launch an Ethereum ETF, and it will continue to try to launch an Ethereum spot ETF. Currently, eight potential issuers, including BlackRock, have submitted Ethereum spot ETF applications to the SEC

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China Asset Management, Bosera Capital, HashKey Capital Limited, etc. announced that their applications for Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, allowing investors to directly use Bitcoin and Ethereum to subscribe for corresponding ETF shares

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Franklin Templeton's application for the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF "FRANKLIN ETHEREUM TR ETHEREUM ETF" has been listed on the DTCC website, and the Create/Redeem column shows Y. DTCC emphasized that this is a standard practice to prepare for the launch of new ETFs to the market and does not represent the result of the approval process

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- First round of Spot ETH ETF deadlines approaching this week
23-May: VanEck
24-May: Ark Invest/21Shares
- ETHBTC reaching Feb 2021 levels last Friday coupled with the lacklustre interest in the options market, hints that the market is anticipating a rejection and a non-event.
- ETH has successfully defended the 2900 levels multiple times this year and has formed a strong support
- Given ETH's duality of a store of value and a layer 1 Blockchain network. An approval would likely result in ETH outperforming the price action of BTC upon it's approval.
- Given the resounding lack of interest in the market, the risk is to the topside with a surprise approval catching everyone off guard, triggering a short squeeze taking us easily back to recent highs

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Ethereum whales bought over 110,000 ETH in the past 24 hours, worth around $341 million.

액티브 트레이드:

Wen lambo?

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affected by the news that the SPOT ETH ETF suddenly may pass, on May 20 (UTC), ETH rose by more than $590 in a single day, and its market value increased by more than $70 billion, setting its largest single-day increase in market value in history

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Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra estimate that the approval of a spot Ethereum ETF will send the price of Ethereum surging 75% to $6,600. They noted that the SEC's approval of a similar Bitcoin product in January spurred a 75% rise in Bitcoin prices in the following weeks, and expected similar changes in ETH's price action.

액티브 트레이드:

- ETH 24-May contracts at 105 vols signal anticipation for a big move by the application deadline.
- ETH Perp funding went from 50% to flat in 12 hours, with Jun forwards still yielding 15%, possibly reflecting diminished short-term speculation but sustained medium-term bullishness.
- ETH 24 and 31 May risk reversals at -7 suggest lingering market fear of short-term downside volatility, potentially prompting tactical hedging of long ETH positions.
- Spot BTC ETF sees a 7-day inflow streak totalling nearly 1.5bn.
- Growing narrative around crypto in US elections gains traction, especially following SEC's recent shift in their stance.

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US lawmakers urge SEC to approve spot Ethereum ETFs

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Yesterday's headline: the Spot Ethereum ETF got approved!
But why isn't ETH mooning already?

In order for the ETFs to launch, the SEC must approve both:

- the 19b-4s (exchange rule changes)
- and the S-1s (registration statements)

Yesterday, only the 19b-4s got the nod, not the S-1s.
However, there's a 10-day window for a commissioner to step in and challenge it

액티브 트레이드:

the game is on

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Ether price nears $4,000 as market awaits Ethereum ETFs going live

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BlackRock filed an amended S-1 registration statement for SPOT ETH ETF, disclosing information about seed capital investors. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects other companies to file similar documents soon, and trading could begin around the end of June or July 4.

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Outflows from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) could dampen the Spot Ethereum ETF approval party but create significant opportunities for traders.

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Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. SEC, said that the next step in the approval of the ETH ETF will take some time, which may indicate that the S-1 approval process may be slow. Gary also made remarks that cryptocurrency exchanges are doing things that the law will never allow the New York Stock Exchange or traditional exchanges to do.

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The gas price on the Ethereum network was down to 5 gwei this morning

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Ethereum ETF issuers are still waiting on the SEC to provide comments on their S-1 filings after they submitted first drafts on May 31. They expect the S-1 forms to go through at least two more rounds of draft filings before they are ready.

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ETH jumped slightly and again broke $3,500 in the minutes after Consensys reported the SEC had dropped its investigation into Ethereum.

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ETH vs BTC !

- Mt Gox has no ETH
- The Germans aren't selling ETH
- Ethereum doesn't have constant miner sell pressure to pay for expenses
- ETF ALSO coming to ETH
- Supply shock bigger on ETH vs BTC

코멘트:

the U.S. SEC has returned the S-1 form to potential Ethereum spot ETF issuers with only a few comments. The issuer has been asked to process these comments and resubmit by July 8. This means that at least one more round of filings will be required before the ETF finally starts trading.

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We had studied the wallet address of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the total value of ETH currently held has exceeded $800 million, most of which came from the ETH allocation he received during the launch of Ethereum, about 246,730 ETH. He also invested in many projects such as StarkNet.