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QuantNomad - Bitcoin NVT/NVTSIn this script I included 2 quite interesting indicators for Bitcoin: * NVT (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) * NVTS (NVT Signal) Both indicators are based on Bitcoin Network Value (Market Cap) and 24h transaction volume. For both these values I'm using Quandl datasets from Blockchainc.com: market_cap: QUANDL:BCHAIN/MKTCP transac_vol: QUANDL:BCHAIN/ETRVU Calculation for both indicators are pretty simple: NVT = median(market_cap / transac_vol, 14 bars) NVTS = market_cap / sma(transac_vol, 90 bars) NVT and NVTS are cryptocurrency's answers to P/E ratio. They can help you to understand if bitcoin is under/overvalued. When NVT or NVTS is relatively high it can be a pretty good point to short bitcoin, if it's low it good time to buy bitcoin. NVT Ratio - was created by Willy Woo NVT Signal - was created by Dimitry Kalichkin Because of different sources of transaction volume data, these indicators can differ in values from originals, but magnitude should be the same. This is a pretty simple example where you can select only static overbought/oversold levels and when indicator will be above/below it you will see in changing in color. I have many more things in my head how these indicators can be developed further and what strategies can be derived from them, but as is they can be a pretty good base for you. Will share my advanced findings later.
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QuantNomad의
1
Metcalfes Law - Bitcoin Fair PriceMetcalfe's Law has been successfully used to value a variety of network effect technologies and businesses, including Facebook and Tencent. Applying Metcalfe's Law to Bitcoin, using "Daily Active Addresses" (DAA) as the "n" value, yields interesting results. Historically, Bitcoin has tracked the Metcalfe Law Fair Price reasonably well. A number of studies have been performed over recent years which validate this and have used various derivations of Metcalfe’s Law. Note: this indicator sticks to the original Metcalf’s Law. Prior to 2018, every time Bitcoin was above the Metcalfe’s Law fair price (calculated using a default “A” of 0.5 here), a bubble had formed, and price quickly reverted back down to the mean. Nonetheless, since February 2018, Metcalfe's Law Fair Price has remained below the actual Bitcoin price, suggesting Bitcoin is currently overvalued. There may be a few reasons for this: 1. Possibility A: Bitcoin may still be extremely overvalued. Since the December 2017 peak, Bitcoin has only reverted to the Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price briefly during the December 2018 bottom. If this case is true, there could be further to fall unless DAA numbers pick up to fill the gap. 2. Possibility B: The introduction of side-chains, private transactions and the Lightning Network may have fundamentally altered the effectiveness of using DAA to value Bitcoin. As more daily transactions are completed off-chain, or on large platforms/exchanges which use fewer addresses, the relative number and growth of DAA may be misrepresented and artificially low. In this case, DAA as it is reported today is no longer useful in assessing the fair value of Bitcoin with Metcalfe’s Law and this Indicator is effectively useless. 3. Possibility C: Neither of the above are true. We are just in an anomalous period in which price and Metcalfe’s Law Fair Price have deviated from the mean for an extended period (and will meet again in the future, potentially at a higher price). 4. Possibility D: Metcalfe’s Law doesn’t really work for Bitcoin. I am inclined to believe Possibilities “C” and “D” are unlikely. Given the way Bitcoin infrastructure is being developed and used in 2019, Possibility “B” seems the most likely, as this case is supported by the fact that a number of other metrics indicate that Bitcoin is currently on the lower side of “fair value” (including Dynamic Range NVT Signal). Regardless, Possibility “A” remains a strong candidate. Only time will tell. It will be interesting to check back on this indicator in 12-24 months time. Hopefully this indicator has been proven redundant by then.
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capriole_charles의
4
Dynamic Range NVT SignalABOUT DYNAMIC RANGE NVT SIGNAL NVT Signal (Credit: Willy Woo and Dmitry Kalichkin) is akin to a "PE" ratio for Bitcoin , and can be used to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold based on the relative value of transactions sent across the network. This indicator includes a 2 year moving average and standard deviation to identify outlier values, instead of declaring a static high-low range for relative valuation. THEORY A dynamic "high-low" range was chosen for the following reasons: - Bitcoin is only 10 years old, it is likely that relatively "high" and relatively "low" NVT values will change with time, as have PE ratios over the last century. - Some transactions are now made off-chain (eg. Liquid Network's private side-chain which is used by many major exchanges). If this trend continues, we can expect "normal" NVT ranges to increase with time (as the relative portion of public on-chain transaction values decreases). CALCULATION - NVT = Circulating Market Cap / 90 average On-chain Transaction Value* - Overbought (default): NVT > 2-year mean + 2*standard deviations. I.e. NVT Signal is in the top 2.5% of values for the prior 2 years. - Oversold (default) NVT < 2-year mean - 0.5 * standard deviations.** *Data source: Blockchain.info, estimated transaction value does not include returned to sender as change. **Oversold under 2-year mean was chosen due to the skewness of NVT Signal, it is not normally distributed. For example: NVT Signal has never been less than the 2-year mean - 2* standard deviations. This may change in the future. NOTES ON USAGE - Use with care. Bitcoin can remain "overbought" or "oversold" for extended periods (eg. 2015-2016). - As Bitcoin ages, the validity of NVT Signal will need to be monitored. Particularly with respect to potentially increasing use of side-chains, private transactions and potentially the lightning network. - It is likely that a 2-year “look back period” for calculating mean and standard deviation will not be sufficient in the decades to come. As Bitcoin matures and stabilizes (some time in the future), a longer "look back period" should probably be used. To allow for this, the defaults for this indicator can be easily adjusted.
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capriole_charles의
24
REAL STRATEGY : Dow_Factor_MFI/RSI_DVOG_StrategyI'm actually one of those who think it's more important to extract clues from indicators than strategy, but I wanted to test the data about the probability and dow factor I've shared for a long time. Usually, Bitcoin is used as an eye stain for strategy success, since the graph has increased significantly from the beginning. To prevent this, I used a commission and in the last lines of document I shared Bitmex's Bitcoin and Ethereum 1W test results. I don't think there's a factor to repaint. ( Warn me if u see or observe ) I considered Bitcoin because I found working with liquid parities much more realistic. Ethereum and Bitmex have been featured as a spot and may soon find a place at the CME , so I've evaluated the Ethereum . But since the Ethereum Bitmex was also spot new, I deleted results that were less than 10 closed trades. Since the Dow Theory also looks at the harmony in the indices, just try it in the Cryptocurrency market. Use as indicator in other markets. Support with channels, trend lines with big periods and other supportive indicators. And my personal suggestion : Use this script and indicator TF : 4H and above. Specifications : Commission. ( % 0.125 ) Switchable Methods ( Relative Strength Index / Money Flow Index ) Alarms. (Buy / Sell ) Position closure when horizontal market rates weighs. Progressive gradual buy/sell alarms. Clean code layout that will not cause repaint. (Caution : source = close ) Switchable barcolor option (I / 0 ) *****Test results :***** drive.google.com Summary: It was a realistic test. It has achieved great success in some markets, but as I mentioned earlier, use it only to gain insight into the price movements of cryptos. Use as indicator in other markets. This code is open source under the MIT license. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository : github.com Stay tuned ! Noldo.
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Noldo의
4
Strategy based on the principles of Price ActionIt is considered the percentage of candles with low and high closure for a certain period. Then, a moving average is built from these values. When the moving average of the ratio of tall candles to low candles is greater than the ratio of low candles to high, then long (that is, when the green line crosses the red). And vice versa - a condition for short. It also works on crypto with other settings. Idea for improvement: you can make partial exit by taking, at certain profit levels, the chart will be more stable. Result with a commission of 0.004% You can create an optimizer, and use this strategy on any liquid asset. (Sorry for google translator)
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UnknownUnicorn3282100의
2
Open Interest Exponential Ease of MovementModified Ease of Movement : * Open Interests used on Futures instead of Volume (Includes Bitcoin) * Exponential Moving Average used instead of Simple Moving Average * Division Number cancelled. (Division Number gives wrong signals inside strong trends.) NOTE : This code is open source under the MIT License. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository github.com Stay tuned. Best regards !
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Noldo의
4
[BERA] SUper BOSSHey beras and bulas, this is another gift for you! work in sync with KNIFE CUT script Please message me if you like my indicators. Thanks you. This indicator work in sync with KNIFE CUT, check it. SUper BOSS Is a special indicator with 2 metrics you can use for be a better trade and stop losing money entering useless positions. using also KNIFE CUT you will get up to 4 parameters you can compare, for enter only good trades. This indicator can: Supports and resistances area as point of reference. OverBought, Oversold candles Green line is a LONG, Red line is a SHORT. 4H example, work with all timeframes also for excellent 15m scalping. SEE? many opportunities. Tried this with 15m timeframe trading ALGO MOON or DOOM and the result is incredible. With SUper BOSS and KNIFE CUT, you will earn money in any timeframe! I may find 15 trades a day with this system. See price history. You not believe? i believe.
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PeaceOfShiette의
6
[BERA] KNIFE CUT Hey beras and bulas, this is my gift for you! Please message me after you tried my indicators. This indicator work in sync with SUper BOSS or SB , check it. KNIFE CUT Is a special indicator with 2 metrics you can use for be a better trade and stop losing money entering useless positions. This indicator can: The Area in the center measure "Market cycles" check below, and "BUY PRESSURE", check the reaction with the price action, impressive? i know. About the bars green or red, are trend bars, compare it to the price action and you can see that these bars catched all uptrends and downtrends. (you can change also resolutions of background bars, current H4 resolution if you watch lower timeframes.) *BUY PRESSURE / TREND BACKGROUND BARS *MARKET CYCLES This script work with every exchange and pairs, also forex. See price history. You not believe? i believe.
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PeaceOfShiette의
4
Ultimate LOTUS - strategy tester Welcome to the Ultimate LOTUS - Strategy Tester. This indicator is used for back-testing. Once you have found settings that you like, you can use my other published indicator "Ultimate LOTUS" to set alerts. How to use: Apply to any chart, on any time frame. You will see LONG and SHORT signals on the chart. A LONG signal represents an entry/buy in, and a SHORT signal represents an exit/sell. You can use the Express - Strategy Tester to scalp on low time frames such as the 5m, 15m, 30m etc. Or use it on higher time frames such as the 1hr, 2hr, 4hr. You can use regular candles but Heikin Ashi are recommended for better accuracy. You cannot set alerts with this indicator!
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danborovik의
2
CS Trading Bot Study - Crypto EditionWhat is this Study about? The CS Trading Bot Study is for getting Open Long (Buy) and Close Long signals (Sell) that you can use to get alerts in various ways (Webhooks, Emails, etc). The Study is very profitable for a vast amount of Crypto assets and the algorithm behind is not overfitted. How to use it? Make sure to start your research and find your favorite Crypto assets using the corresponding strategy: The research process is very important as you can see beforehand how well the alerts for this Study would perform. Make sure to read the Strategy's description, as well! After you found your Crypto assets of interest using the corresponding Strategy... Open a new chart for each asset and add the Study from your favorite indicators. Click on the alert symbol on your chart and from "Condition" choose the "CS Bot" Strategy. Then below choose "CS Bot Buy Alert" and "CS Bot Sell Alert" (each separate alerts). Under "options" check "Once per bar" (very important) . Pick your desired way of getting the alerts (app, popup, email, webhook). The webhooks for setting alerts are very interesting as you can forward your signals to your own trading bot or simply wait until my trading bot is available (currently in development) Since I develop myself, rest assured it will be available soon. Look out for comments below as soon as it is available! How to access? If you are interested to get access to the complete package, please don't hesitate to send me a private message for a quote. The amount of concurrent users using the package (=licenses) is limited to max. 500 a month (more we cannot manually handle has Tradingview has no automation for this yet). Access to the bot package is based on a monthly basis. If you get access, you will asked in person at the end of the month if you want to continue or not. The monthly fee depends on the demand, but for as long as you continue using the package your initial price stays the same!
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CoinStudio의
7