#5-5 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD

SUMMARY - This is the 11/17/23, 15-min bar, 5-day, working draft of the CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. #5-4 rally really got killed at 1:04 AM this morning when I said "CANCEL EVERYTHING" because there were perfect curves aiming for 1956. At 2:45 AM, I said gold had bought 2 more hours and had to move to 1990, HOLD, AND KEEP GOING to 2000, 2012 and higher to stop the rug pull. Holding 1993 for an hour did not cut it and we find ourselves in the retrace. The bad part is that the retrace is likely not over until Sunday or Monday. The good part is WE START THIS RALLY ALL OVER.

WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.

HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bull routes. Oranges are strong bear routes (none this time). The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path.

DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.

IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by telling people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth will help make this regular thing. The current rates of followers and readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, but I keep trying to help you cash that trade everyday. If you can't have friends because your wife say they are too much fun, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.

코멘트:

2:57 PM ET NOTES...
1) so I we are still waiting for Sunday or Monday bottom
2) while this is not official bc we haven't seen that
3) I like this draft even more than the last draft
4) so if you didn't play with us the last time
5) maybe consider kicking it with us for this rally
6) on a side note, be aware of time and time frame
7) bc I cancelled #5-4 last night while still 1983.xx at 1:04 AM
8) see the ending notes of that draft for what happened
9) but I do understand that some readers are not aware that I change things on the fly
10 ) respective of what I see in front of me
11) and that daily notes always supersede all forecasts

코멘트:

12) this is a working draft in preparation for #5-6
13) I will put that out on Monday after seeing what that bottom looks like
14) in the meantime, in chart above:
15) arrow is entry
16) black box is a blank day for Thanksgiving
17) which may or may not change what the tail end looks like

코멘트:

18) current extrapolations show next bottom 1962-197

코멘트:

FRIDAY, 11/17, 5:18 PM ET, A REALLY IMPORTANT NOTE:
1) so if you noticed..
2) my charts used to have 2 colors
3) now, I keep making entirely blue ones
4) I'm not being an idiot here
5) it's because I can see something with my software that most can't
6) I don't personally care any more if it's ultimately bull or bear
7) it's just WE NEED TO NAIL THE BIG MOVE WHEN IT COMES...
8) like I've said recently, if it's going to go bull...
9) the most likely path would be:
a) 2120, 2220
b) 2120 or 20 80
c) 2380
d) 2670 or 27xx
10) and this would have to fit FROM NOW TO MARCH 8TH 2024,
11) previous I kept say ing JAN 10 - MAR 8, 2024
12) because I had thought the move would be something like 2040-2540 in that span
13) but we are doing the higher move
14) THERE IS NO MORE WAITING
15) IT IS NOW
16) so by next Wed 2030-2040
17) 11/29-30 WE HAVE TO CLEAR 2110-21120
18) then we do 2220 DECEMBER ahead of the JAN 8TH CHECK DOWN
19) and that check down should be higher thatn 2080
20) the moment that I kept saying we wait for
21) THAT MOMENT IS NOW!!!!
22) if you've been following me since 9/12, we've had some amazing weeks
23) THAT IS NOTHING compared to what is coming
24) so settle down, set out some funds for gol
25) and I'm going to make you SERIOUS MONEY

코멘트:

26) TYPOS!!! had to get it out fast so...
>> 9), b) 2120 or 2080 (meaning after 2200, checkdown, then go to c) 2380)
>> 11) previously, I kept saying time frame should be 01/10-03/08, 2024
>> 17) WE HAVE TO CLEAR 2110-2120
>> 24) ... set out some funds for gold!!

코멘트:

7:22 PM, AN EVEN MORE IMPORTANT NOTE:
1) if you have friend or buddy you know that's a trader
2) tell them about what we are doing
3) really bc, moves like this for gold (from here to rest of 2025)...
4) comes but once every 25 years
5) it's not terrible

코멘트:

7:38 PM ET, so that means this:

코멘트:

a) in chart above:
b) that is my base case
c) so we need 2 things:
1) entry on Sunday or Monday
2) wait for Fed minutes spike all to 2040-ish come Tuesday

코멘트:

:01 PM, continuing...
3) let make this clear...
4 since I started doing this daily or sometimes twice a day
5) I've nailed 90% of the price action a head of time
6) even if that meant putting in notes the middle of the night
7) but of all I did SO CAN WE DO THIS MOVE...
8) compared to the work I give you daily this is a DIFFERENT PARADIGM
9) and why?
10) bc I put in the previous 8 years of my life so I could do this today
11) this move to 2670-2740 whatever it is...
12) is not something I arrived at over night
13) who else would try to annoy people with "THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD"
14) I didn't say in "CANADA" or "JACKSONVILLE"...
15) this is a whole NEW LEVEL OF SERIOUSNESSS

코멘트:

16) if your are new to us, replay this call AT THE 1610 FLOOR 12 MONTHS AGO:

17) that one was a response to "rumors of a FED pivot" ... it's going the nail the MOVE TOO....
18) but it's a year ago, IT COULD NOT HAVE SEEN what the ceiling looks like now

코멘트:

19) that one was the call from 1735, here is prepwork when it was 1670:

코멘트:

20) this one from 1650s:

코멘트:

21) that one above NAILED THE MOVE TO 1780s (missed the rest, but I'm WAY better now)
22) finally:

코멘트:

23) this one, from 9/28/2022 AHEAD OF 1610 LOW:

코멘트:

a) chart above was work-up for as a response to BANK OF ENGLAND capitulation
b) (meant that U.S. was coming soo)
c) AND NAILED WHERE THE SPIKE WOULD BE
d) this after 1680 floor 2 and half years broke the month before

코멘트:

e) typo, sorry, coming soon, not sooo.. .hehe

코멘트:

f) that's for people who say, that was easy calling the floor at 1735...
g) no, it BEFORE WE HIT 1610

코멘트:

h) call for 2080 top in March 2022:

코멘트:

i) chart above, that one I was early... but made up for later ...

코멘트:

j) in that PART 7:

코멘트:

k) bar size in chart above too small to replay so here's the outcome to compare:

코멘트:

l) in between though, half of it was trash
m) and the reason was simply they didn't respond to new conditions
n) and that's why I do SO MUCH NOTES and in order to maintain relevancy
o) all that just to say, this is serious stuff coming up if you capital to deploy
p) have a good night

코멘트:

11/18, 8: 06 PM, I'm going through the history because:
a) I am trying to convince fence sitters to join us
b) because it's valuable for them if they come with us, it's
c) it's valuable for my reputation if I want to make forecasts a career
d) 2700/1980 is a 36% move
e) 2700/1810 is 50% if you've been reading my daily work from early October (September NFP release)

코멘트:

f) so since 9/12, the notes I put in have nailed the price action proving my theory that:
g) in order to get it all right, you have to watch price action "ALL THE TIME"
h) this I realized in May of 2022, but didn't execute it until this September
i) because it takes SOOOOOOO much time, and is only worth it if there are HUGE swings in prices (one is coming up for gold to March 8th, 2024; and really all the way through January 2026)
j) that's also saying daily and week stuff before that was 50/50 (trash, you can't win with it)
k) I have solved that problem now for 77 days running
l) what we are going to review is intermediate charts since porting my work to Tradingview February 2022

코멘트:

m) for those that bar history is too short to replay, I will add the actual chart so you can see comparison on this page
n) let's begin!

코멘트:

1) some of this won't port a picture so you have to click on the link, sigh....
2) first post ever illustrating incoming double top crash to 1450 in Feb of 2020 (no replay):
www.tradingview.com/...eEJ9ylK9-GOLD-CRASH/

코멘트:

3) that's when software wasn't available yet, it called this part:

코멘트:

4) chart analyzing volume AT THE 1450 BOTTOM:

코멘트:

5) the bounce:
www.tradingview.com/...-1630-KISS-OF-DEATH/

코멘트:

6) for this:

코멘트:

7) got the first part of the next bounce, but missed the rest:
www.tradingview.com/...-REAL-KISS-OF-DEATH/

코멘트:

8) so I am only hi-lighting the parts I caught, those I didn't not hi-lighted:

코멘트:

9) after missing the next week, I didn't post for weeks trying to learn Elliot Wave, which has some value but created problems for me later
10) I returned with these 3 for the sideways catching the summer June 2020 bottom:

코멘트:

11) the move sideways, to 1980

12) got this one said "route to 2040", but the chart DID have 2070 BUT A MONTH LATE

13) so won't even count that in the hi-light chart:

코멘트:

14) I'll add the rest later but the hi-light chart still incomplete looks like this:

코멘트:

a) for chart above:
b) but EVERYTHING BEFORE 9/12 are "in genearal"
c) the charts since 9/12 don't look as impressive, BUT THE NOTES CATCH EVERYTHING
d) here's an example of daily notes being perfect through the move even as the chart failed:

e) notes even ended with this and then drafting bull scenario
f) which was replaced by bear scenario 6 hours later

코멘트:

코멘트:

15) here's the one I wanted to post for 2022 run to 2080 before but couldn't find:

코멘트:

16) here's a better one before I saw the rejection at 2080

코멘트:

a) for I chart above, you want to talk about NAILING and entry?
b) announcing in in the exact time frame calling for the exact high?

코멘트:

17) so:

a) in chart above the light blue one I cannot prove because I don't have it here on Tradingview
b) but that hi-light is a trace of the 2011 high reaction at 1910

코멘트:

c) it was the first high in August 2011
d) I used that with regression fractal to prove my point on a certain Elliot Wave membership site
e) and then quit that web site
f) the gray stretch is gray for 2 reasons
g) knowing that it's going to be an irregular shape
h) I offered 5 different routes based on different methods
I) none of them hit
ex:

코멘트:

l1) the most likely fractal comparison

l

코멘트:

l2) volume derivative:

코멘트:

l3) this is after I stopped thinking about and got "the look" right, but ALL WRONG too

코멘트:

m) but these things were still early development, when they were just a stab in the dark
n) during this time I was doing a whole bunch of tickers, Dow, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, SP500, crude oil, Tesla, DXY, EEM, and on and on ...
q) I DON'T DO THAT NOW, I do gold only

코멘트:

r) bc you only have so much attention to spread around
s) in the difficult parts, you can only do ONE ticker, if you want to get it right

코멘트:

t) oh yeah, bitcoin too during this stretch that I attempted to prove my method work in other tickers

코멘트:

18) sometimes the replay seem like it work but will display the wrong bars ex:

a) chart above is what chart below is for:

b) but if you replay the forecast, it will be wrong bc the bars are set a year into the future

코멘트:

c) the next 90 days I only did 3 gold forecasts, that's 1 per month
d) each time at a high, each time COMPLETELY 200% WRONG
e) my average since 9/12 this year is 28 per month
f) proving my point that you can't just "dabble" you are either all in with the process or you are not
g) that's why I do ONLY GOLD AND ALL THE TIME
h) that gives us this battering average, don't worry, the the rest of the way is 90% blue:

코멘트:

i)

코멘트:

j) the stuff from late '19 into early ''20, I can't prove with a chart
k) I can prove by my TD statement

코멘트:

l) so why red dots at those 3 places?
m) I literally picked at those spots THE MIRROR IMAGE of the outcome (hence why this is a major theme for our forecasts
n) this is why after picking up gold almost exclusively since
o) the intermediate charts have so strong (bc they usually have a "paired" moves
p) I do all that now with blues and oranges hi-lights (so they can be on the same chart)

18) continuing with following months by first ABSOLUTELY nailing the first move 1680

코멘트:

19) early call of reversal nailing move to 1950 on March 8, 2021

코멘트:

20) calling silver to go down 11 days before that makes sense bc same trend right?
www.tradingview.com/...ER-MOMENTUM-ZOOM-IN/
21) but still calling sliver to down 11 days after that:

22) nailing the double bottom

코멘트:

23) predicting channels BEFORE THEY EXIST started with run to 1900

24) here detailing the move to 1900 (it hit "mirror image on slant"

25) spotting the FOMC hard check down (didn't have time for complete chart)

코멘트:

26) hit the first box but MIRROR IMAGE IN THE NEXT 2, meaning the result in this case will end in mirror image:

27) more boxes to detect mirror image:

28) nailing the mirror image before it happened

29) ABSOLUTELY CRUSHING the mirror image in 30-min bars (but you can't replay it, just zoom it out)

a) in chart above it lead with 1-2 red boxes and hit ALL ITS BOXES INCLUDING THOSE 30 DAYS LATER
b) zoom it out to see
c) too bad you can't replay it

코멘트:

30) this one is really awesome bc it really show mirror image side by side:

a) in chart above, replay both of them
b) it''s like biggest liar, IT SAYS it will go one way, but then last miniute, GOES the other
30) early casting 120 days ahead:

코멘트:

31) mirror on a curve where I started using different color hi-lights:

32) and finished with the move to 2080 in notes above

코멘트:

a) that's in note 16) and 17) above
b) so that put us here:

코멘트:

코멘트:

c) I've already covered half the rest too, will cover the move from 2080 to 1610 later

코멘트:

33) "EXIT STRATEGY" the week before 2080 top (no replay):

34) "DIE GOLD DIE"AT the top (no replay)

35) nailed this move sideways to 4/24/22 (I know the rest is wrong)

36) detailed 4/18-4/24 (the rest still wrong)

37) but ON 4/24/22 released the crash afterwards to May

a) in chart above, didn't have time for "detailing"
b) it was at this point that I realized that in order to get it ALL RIGHT EVERY DAY
c) I have to "update continuously", in other words, watch and recast prices ALL THE TIME
d) which is what I am DOING NOW...
38 ) from 4/28/22 to 5/17

39) detailing for blue and orange for that move

a) in chart above, started orange
b) switched to blue, then finished by following orange but mirroring blue

40) so that puts us here:

a) in chart above
b) the light blue for 2023 is because I've only shown GENERIC evidence (the pivot chart from the 1610 floor)
c) haven't shown DETAILED evidence
d) that's the difference between a trade for a week and a a year
f) what my daily notes are attempting to do is help you win day in day out"
e) finish soon

코멘트:

41) in notes above: 33) and 39) posted twice by accident, but here is missing 34)

코멘트:

42) and for everything since 9/12, use this page bc there's SO MANY dailies to cover and I've already done this several times in the last month:

43) the reason i stopped updating that thesis page is bc Moderators consider "too many update comments" as gaming the system for views...
44) I think I hit some kind of limit today too for this one
45) so to stay in the right lane, I will stop here with this post and
46) continue w/ to fill out blue hi-light chart for #5-6
....
TO CLOSE THIS OUT ( AND CONTINUE WITH #5-6):
a) consider the work you have seen (and will see next) as strong evidence in quality of work
b) but the whole point is this, is all that work better than regular technical analysis??
c) ONLY IF THE MOVE IS BIG ENOUGH in your time frame (bc of labor cost)
d) and YES we have giant moves coming next 800 days in gold (to and through January 2026)
e) consider this post #5-5, and next piece #5-6 as evidence and rationale for:
f) MY PERSONAL BEGGING INVITATION FOR YOU - if you are on the fence - TO JOIN US FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
g) if whaty you've have seen so far does NOT move the needle to convince you...
h) I'm not your guy, so you should move on to not waste time
i) that's a wrap for #5-5
j) I will post #5-6 here next when that's ready

매매 수동청산:

THIS POST HAS ENDED - HERE IS #5-6: