XAUUSD: Crucial point at 1996 with a roadmap from 1968 to 2025!

2023년 11월 24일

In Friday's session, the XAU/USD is gaining momentum, taking advantage of mixed S&P PMIs and a weakening US Dollar. In early November, the US private sector exhibited slight growth in economic activity, as reflected in the S&P Global Composite PMI, maintaining its position at 50.7. However, the Manufacturing PMI declined from 50.0 to 49.4 during the same period, indicating contraction. On the other hand, the Services PMI showed a modest improvement, rising from 50.6 to 50.8. Notably, employment in the US service and manufacturing sectors declined in November for the first time since 2020, influenced by sluggish demand and elevated costs. In response, markets seem to be assessing the weakening of the manufacturing sector, increasing dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could explain the weakness of the US dollar. However, rising US Treasury yields may limit the upward momentum of gold. The 2-year rate rose to 4.95%, while the 5 and 10-year yields reached 4.50% and 4.48%, respectively.

Examining the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought conditions, indicating strong buying momentum but suggesting a potential reversal. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a positive trend with rising green bars, signaling increasing bullish momentum. The price is currently at the 2002 level, and there is a significant level at 1996, where the price originated and where it could return for a retest before continuing towards 2010 and then on to 2025. Conversely, if the price were to return to 1996, it could break the H4 structure and fall towards 1968, where we have a daily support level. Wishing everyone a good weekend.