The path back to target inflation, like the path to a soft landing, is always narrow and treacherous. And there are some worrying developments that could shake up the “endless deflation” the US has experienced over the past few months, potentially pushing back policy easing beyond March.
Favorable financial conditions: a leading indicator of real GDP, which has increased from 10% to 90% in six months, suggests that economic conditions are likely to remain stable at least in the short term. And if GDP increases, inflation may be difficult to reduce.
Labor costs are not increasing: Rebalancing in the labor market occurs between job openings and quit rates, not unemployment rates. The employment cost index tends to follow the National Federation of Independent Business's small business compensation plan. At that point, the number rose, approaching the point where the Fed had to react hawkishly.
Helter Skelter Shelter: Rents are forecast not to fall much in 2024, likely to contribute 17-20 basis points to core inflation in January and February, leaving no room for further contributions before Core inflation exceeds the Fed's target.
Tensions in the Red Sea have begun to impact freight costs, leading to increased pressure on supply chains - a key driver of rising inflation in 2022, especially in Europe.
Favorable financial conditions: a leading indicator of real GDP, which has increased from 10% to 90% in six months, suggests that economic conditions are likely to remain stable at least in the short term. And if GDP increases, inflation may be difficult to reduce.
Labor costs are not increasing: Rebalancing in the labor market occurs between job openings and quit rates, not unemployment rates. The employment cost index tends to follow the National Federation of Independent Business's small business compensation plan. At that point, the number rose, approaching the point where the Fed had to react hawkishly.
Helter Skelter Shelter: Rents are forecast not to fall much in 2024, likely to contribute 17-20 basis points to core inflation in January and February, leaving no room for further contributions before Core inflation exceeds the Fed's target.
Tensions in the Red Sea have begun to impact freight costs, leading to increased pressure on supply chains - a key driver of rising inflation in 2022, especially in Europe.
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TP1: 2017
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