As most of you know, $VIX measures volatility index. It is usually inverse to $SPX/ US500. We have been trading within this curved pattern in $VIX since COVID. Break of this monthly curved pattern will likely imply a change in market sentiment. Downward break would likely imply a bull run resumption. Bounce from this area would likely lead us back to lows. Heavy supply and demands are marked in this chart. $VIX going back under 20 would be more bullish for the market.
34-38 is where I'd like to short as you all know. Break of this supply would be very unlikely as it would require a catastrophe news such as world war/ nuclear war.
Keeping an eye for another bounce on $VIX from this lower part of the curve to start shorting the market again. Would be patient for that, as it will provide plenty opportunities along the way.
Break of this curved trendline to the downside would be ending a 2yr trend in $VIX which may not happen until inflation is back under control.
Another bounce from this curve would likely imply market going back for another leg down. Been in this curved path for nearly 2yrs now.
Potential scenarios highlighted in the chart.
Approaching near the weekly demand where we have seen multiple bounces in 2022.
34-38 is where I'd like to short as you all know. Break of this supply would be very unlikely as it would require a catastrophe news such as world war/ nuclear war.
Keeping an eye for another bounce on $VIX from this lower part of the curve to start shorting the market again. Would be patient for that, as it will provide plenty opportunities along the way.
Break of this curved trendline to the downside would be ending a 2yr trend in $VIX which may not happen until inflation is back under control.
Another bounce from this curve would likely imply market going back for another leg down. Been in this curved path for nearly 2yrs now.
Potential scenarios highlighted in the chart.
Approaching near the weekly demand where we have seen multiple bounces in 2022.