In the scenario that the massive builds this past five weeks were due to mess-ups with the hurricanes and import data and the bull run continues as before. This also requires republicans to win the house next week and eia -0.10% to improve dramatically.
코멘트:
The past five weeks have seen the fastest unloading of managed money nymex funds of crude contracts ever. Faster than 2008 rate. And as they say, buy when there's blood in the streets. Could just be panic selling, but a few weeks of sideways accumulation.
The case for the bull is that 80% of the past 5 weeks massive draws were caused by "adjustments" from errors in previous weeks which could be explained either by a conspiracy, or haphazard import data due to that tropical storm turning cat 5 in 10 hours in the gulf
if that's true. one assumes that in the next week or two it will be over and normal draws or builds will be around +1-1 million and product draws which are typical around this time will continue to be -3-4
furthermore the trade war with china may be ending which if people believe is true will cause a gradual softening in the dollar and an increase in global growth so 80+