USDJPY (Continuation)

The previous USDJPY thread became too long to remain practical hence, this new thread for the USDJPY.

Previous thread summary
-----------------------------------
Calendar days: 96
Net profit: (USDJPY only) +1073 pips (including the currency hedge adjustments in support of Nikkei long positions - +1132% Net)
Max risk; 0.71% of capital;
Max draw-down: -0.43%
Number of trades: 52 (including hedge adjustments)
Average R/R: 1:10.25 (Exclusive of hedge adjustments)
-----------------------------------

Here is the Daily;

Currently: FLAT -> Long Bias.

코멘트:

거래청산: 타겟 닿음:

(+42 pips)

FLAT, for now

코멘트:

Note;
Going into next month (July) expiration, 30-days out there are significant increases (almost double) in FX Yen Calls, matched with similar gains in the end-of-July Sterling 125.00 Puts, while spot cash flows point to continued Euro weakness (inline with the potential 106 target, I have pointed to, earlier).
FX options action continue to point to much increased “fears” of a (“surprise” - Really?!) BoJ tightening - as I keep advocating it being a very real possibility!! - while Euro weakness is now being accepted as a foregone conclusion.
E.g. the Yen continues to hold the potential to shock markets (in the event of which the EURJPY will bear the brunt of it!), while there is still some “disbelief” for a sub-125.00 Sterling but (“just in case”? ;-) there is continued, brisk 125 Put buying, now outstripping the short flows in the EURUSD.
E.g., If you’ve been following any of these posts then by now you should be comfortably positioned in all the right places and with room to spare! I.e.; Short all USD base pairs - EURUSD, GBPUSD, etc - and the EURJPY; (very) LONG USDCHF and company.
Most importantly, those “Yen fears” remain just that until something actually happens - normally.
HOWEVER, considering the nature of a 30-year, $3 Trillion short position, and the necessity in such an event for global markets to cover it!…That just simply is Not something that one is very likely to get a chance to waltz in, in the middle of it, to take advantage of the moves that will prompt. E.g. Be strongly advised!!

코멘트:

p.s. Without any intent of beleaguering it, this is just to illustrate the above point - this was in the EURJPY;

That was the single largest Yen move (700 pips), prompted by just the hint of the BoJ "may do something" - at some future date. I.e., There, nothing really happened, yet.

코멘트:

This is just a gentle reminder where we are, at present,...

... and that now would be a good time to inform ourselves as to the location of the various exits. (within 60 pips.)
While the EURJPY Short remains the focus nevertheless, this pair is also exposed to any potential BoJ move!

거래청산: 타겟 닿음:

Having tightened up the Stops here, considerably, on this most recent trade ...

... it is now completed - for all practical purposes -, locking in +480 pips. (Not counting any of the +1200 pips which was strictly part of that ginormous Nikkei position/hedge.)

코멘트:

There is clearly a potential here for a push higher;

코멘트:

This is probably going to get pushed back up here

because A) The PBC (China) keeps dumping the Yen; B) The calls are still relatively cheap (although, ever less so) thus, everybone keeps dumping the spot (cash) against them. In any case, this is not the place to be short now!

액티브 트레이드:

SHORT

거래청산: 타겟 닿음:

This is likely to continue to come down, very little doubt about it, however

... there is now over $3 Billion pushing against that 144.00 level for two days of options expiration! We took our +100 pips and FLAT, for now, until tomorrow - or if something gives here sooner ...

코멘트:

Having switched from the outright Shorts from the USDJPY, to Shorts in the EURJPY & CHFJPY, we did slightly worse (+385 pips profit vs. the potential 440 pips here.) than if we'd just stayed with the outright Shorts here.
As this pair is now clearly working on a Monthly reversal;

.... there is very little doubt that this remains an aggressive SHORT
Furthermore, upon more detailed examination of the USD's situation, it became clear that the US Dollar is in substantially more, imminent trouble than previously thought! (Due to the Fed.'s sustained and utterly deranged "policy actions".)
Making this is a "trap door situation" here with declines expected to be sudden and violent!

코멘트:

Visualization of the BoJ's interest rate policy;

코멘트:

Lightened up (~1/3) here for +210 pips.

액티브 트레이드:

Chances are ...

액티브 트레이드:

SHORT

코멘트:

코멘트:

A fast break here back to the 142.75-143.00 range would be significant because, aside from knocking out $4 billion in options (10 am EST), there is an additional ~$2 billion of gamma purchases ready to jump in!

액티브 트레이드:

I know it's hard to tell from this particular 2-D perspective but ...

... it also happens to be a full wave, perfectly translated (rotated & scaled -> e^(2^1/(1-dP)). Let's see what happens ...

액티브 트레이드:

LONG

코멘트:

Just something to watch out for;

코멘트:

... and IFF the above worked out as projected, then

... that would complete a "Hanging Man" on the Weekly chart. (Definitely bearish)

액티브 트레이드:

SHORT - Not the most overvalued Yen cross, nevertheless ...

코멘트:

Last Friday's action does Not look good for the shorts. LONG, for now.

코멘트:

Here is the full picture;

액티브 트레이드:

At the very minimum, do Not sell into support!!

LONG

거래청산: 타겟 닿음:

FLAT] - +72 pips.

코멘트:

Is this where one goes: Told you so? ... ;-)

코멘트:

That inverse H & S did get the full extension, exactly!

Chances are, this is the turn here - down.
NOT the best of the Yen pairs to short, this being the most fairly valued of them all.

코멘트:

This looks like ...

... it's drifting out of it's channel, coming up from 140.00.
While this is still Not the best "Long Yen" pair, nevertheless, this is rolling over by all measures.

p.s. This thread is getting overly looong here. Probably it will be time to start a new one, soon.

주문취소됨:

This Yen thread is closed!

The new Yen Thread is here: