USDJPY H4 | Market Outlook

- Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 104.18 support. A break of 104.18 will confirm a bearish case and target to 61.8% projection at 103.43. The longer-term charts indicate that a failure to hold 104.189 could lead to an eventual break into the 102.00 to 101.00 area.
- On the upside, above 104.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias into neutral for some consolidations, before staging another decline.
- Although the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan say they are ready to ease more if needed, markets are beginning to doubt whether either of them has much scope left beyond monetizing debt. Meanwhile the Fed’s shift to near-zero rates this year gutted the dollar’s Treasury-JGB yield spread advantage while global uncertainty continues to drive investors into the safe-haven Japanese.