I am bearish on the US dollar, and I expect the loonie to gain ground. The BoC is not engaging in reckless monetary policy, even though, at times, traders found them absent. Canadian CPI is stronger - just above two percent YoY - than in the US, which should favor CAD.
The Fed wants a weaker dollar. The Fed said it; Yellen said it. Don't fight the Fed, right? The Canadian economy is so-so, but I expect US economics to weaken considerably. There is underlying weakness in the labor market nobody is focused on. Since 2007, over two million jobs in the key 25-54 age demographic have been lost, while almost six million jobs in the 55 and older demo were gained. We don't need to worry about the participation rate. We should be worrying about the bulk of US employees simply passing away.
I look for a weaker USD throughout 2015. Fed won't raise rates next year. Fed Pres. Bullard is already talking about extension of QE3 (after several bumblings about needing to raise rates). What 200 measly points of the top can do.
Long CAD, Short USD in a position trade. Forecasts do not necessarily follow each other. Simply 1.08 within three months and 1.05 in 12.
Check me out of Dukascopy TV: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGAt8fE-...
The Fed wants a weaker dollar. The Fed said it; Yellen said it. Don't fight the Fed, right? The Canadian economy is so-so, but I expect US economics to weaken considerably. There is underlying weakness in the labor market nobody is focused on. Since 2007, over two million jobs in the key 25-54 age demographic have been lost, while almost six million jobs in the 55 and older demo were gained. We don't need to worry about the participation rate. We should be worrying about the bulk of US employees simply passing away.
I look for a weaker USD throughout 2015. Fed won't raise rates next year. Fed Pres. Bullard is already talking about extension of QE3 (after several bumblings about needing to raise rates). What 200 measly points of the top can do.
Long CAD, Short USD in a position trade. Forecasts do not necessarily follow each other. Simply 1.08 within three months and 1.05 in 12.
Check me out of Dukascopy TV: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGAt8fE-...
