10-2 Curve Yield Inversion is foreshadowing recession

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (FRED:T10Y2Y)

FRED:T10Y2Y 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

trendanalysis fundamental chartpattern yieldinversioncurve recession

T10Y2Y Here is my DD on why I think we will officially enter recession early 2023. Current situation is identical to 2000 tech bubble.

Back then 10-2 curve yield inversion dropped to its lowest around Spring-Summer 2000. Then the official recession started Spring 2001. Market didn’t fully bottom until end of 2002/early 2003.

Fast forward to 2022, we’ve just reached the lowest 10-2 curve yield inversion since 2000. Meaning a few months from now we will officially be in recession, either end of 2022 or early 2023. Which I suspect could last until early 2024. Since U.S election is scheduled for Fall 2024, Fed and politicians will have to prop the economy back up so they can use “economy recovering” for voting narratives which is what can trigger the next real bull trend.

Conclusion: curve yield inversion has always been indicative of an upcoming recession, so the real bear market hasn’t even really begun yet. What we recently experience was most likely just a warmup👀