SPY
experienced a significant sell-off at the beginning of the past week, followed by a strong bounce near YTD highs. Undeniably, technicals appear bullish due to the strong bounce, particularly with
VIX
volatility subdued. However, given the upcoming #FOMC and
AAPL
ER, I'm watching for volatility to resist further suppression. This pivotal week will help determine the future price direction. The momentum we saw at the end of the week does not imply a bullish cycle, and it may continue to shake out bears as it crosses the key level around 415.
A potential reversal could occur at the YTD high (near 417), especially with FOMC around the corner. This scenario isn't guaranteed, but I would caution on taking long positions at these levels. Watching for higher price discovery to offer a better risk-to-reward setup to ride into sell strength.