If you’ve followed the financial media lately, it’s a lot of doom and gloom. I’ve largely been in that camp too and have repeatedly said that I don’t how the Fed is going to be able to raise interest rates to tackle inflation without swinging the U.S. economy back into recession. I think the base case is still that a reversal to negative growth probably won’t happen in 2022. There’s a narrow window that the Fed can work with, but they’ll really have to thread the needle.
Most of the data is pointed in the wrong direction. The housing market is slowing. Consumers are showing signs of changing their spending patterns due to high inflation. The yen is plunging. The FANG stocks are breaking down. The S&P 500 may only be 10% off of its highs, but it feels like another 10-15% downside wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Most of the data is pointed in the wrong direction. The housing market is slowing. Consumers are showing signs of changing their spending patterns due to high inflation. The yen is plunging. The FANG stocks are breaking down. The S&P 500 may only be 10% off of its highs, but it feels like another 10-15% downside wouldn’t be all that surprising.