SPY - Larger Context

2022년 9월 24일

Let's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away.

Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish.

It may, however, be cringeworthy.

NQ below 200 W SMA.

What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below
this most important of level @ 3585.55.

Powell - simple... NO CHANGE.

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There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons.

The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much.
It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now.

We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections.

I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely
significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies.


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Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique
from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods".

The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly.

What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options
positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum
confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself.

They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time.

And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured.

Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY.

The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard.

Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail.

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Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix:

Call Skew ATM

$ 53,140,489.00 384.94
43.41% 365.06
Range 19.88
IV% Gamma Dependent

PUT Skew ATM

$ 122,410,005.00 384.94
230.35% 365.06
Range 19.88
IV% Gamma Dependent

The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close
based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95.

Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67.

Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide
margin - an absurd failure on their effort.

Here is the Open Data Set:

Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $

375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00
376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00
377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00
380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00

$ 93,224,516.00


Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $

370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00
372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00
373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00
374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00
375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00
376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00

$ 187,809,933.00


In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work.


It is garbage.

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The important points in the Chart:

Notice where the 55 EMA resides.

Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses.

EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets.

Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective.

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On to the Fundamentals:

AAII Sentiment has crossed 60%

Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp

The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well,
consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions.

Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account
of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK 500B recent Default last week).

Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading
to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%.

FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary
to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all.

Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline.

It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions
to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks
horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps.

Breadth - collapsing

TRIN - Horror Show

TRIX - Ditto

Market Internals - No Nieno

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Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition.

Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your
thoughts - it is appreciated.