Still bullish on Crude & OXY

2023년 7월 24일

Im going to try and post this a THIRD time now, as you can see from the first post on June 26th & June 28th. Apparently you cant utilize the Twitter post feature on charts because its solicitation or advertisement, even though im just using the timestamps to show I actually called it publicly like I am stating here.



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"Ive been looking at XLE and CL1! lately and becoming more bullish for multiple reasons, specifically on OXY

• OPEC supply cuts and Geopolitical tensions with BRICS nations could cause supply uncertainty
  
• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve's have been drained
  
• Tech exhaustion is setting in and I believe buyers will rotate into Energy
  
• Trading well after breaking 770/BBL
• WTI 50DMA is $73.45
  
• CTA flows are skewed to the upside
  
• OXY 52w low 55.51 - 52w high 77.13 (todays open - 56.15)
  
• price-to-sales ratio in 2016 was 5.5 and is currently 1.54 now
  
• Berkshire keeps buying more and now owns 24.97% of OXY
  

So my thesis is a mixture of macro, fundamental and technical indications.
The risk-to-reward ratio was there for me so I went long at 1030am on the pullback 6/26/23 and add more on 6/27/23 on the big pullback.
XLE was the leading sector by a mile today.

It needs to clear 58 and 58.75 for a continuation higher.

The chart below illustrates all the timed purchases by Birkshire(Warren Buffet) and the amount of money in each order. As you can see, he buys around the same exact levels for the past year."
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OXY is currently sitting at 62.66, up roughly 11.6% since my original post 28days ago.



CL1! made a high of 79.28 today, up roughly 15.38% since my original post 28 days ago.
I believe it will be a slow grind from here to 82, but that break upwards needs to happen for continuation.



I maintain my thesis on Crude and the rising tension in the GeoPolitical climate and how it will affect its price. The Saudis maintain their resolve to lessen production in accordance with OPEC. I have theories relating to this one on a potential good trading setup which I will post later. That is all for now.