*Markets have likely turned a blind eye to domestic factors for many pro-cyclical currencies over the past few weeks, with global risk dynamics driving most losses. This was the case for NZD too.
*Markets are almost fully pricing in a rate hike by year-end from the RBNZ, which is now looking increasingly likely. 1Q GDP jumped to 2.4% YoY (exceeding expectations), inflation may have moved to the 2.5-3.0% region in 2Q, housing inflation has remained high, and a weaker NZD is surely welcome by the Bank.
*We think the chances of a late-2021 hike are 50/50, but surely the reasons to keep the stimulus going in other forms are lacking, so some material tapering should be on the way. This should keep the rate profile of NZD significantly more attractive than AUD and support a move to 0.75 in NZD/USD by year-end.
*Markets are almost fully pricing in a rate hike by year-end from the RBNZ, which is now looking increasingly likely. 1Q GDP jumped to 2.4% YoY (exceeding expectations), inflation may have moved to the 2.5-3.0% region in 2Q, housing inflation has remained high, and a weaker NZD is surely welcome by the Bank.
*We think the chances of a late-2021 hike are 50/50, but surely the reasons to keep the stimulus going in other forms are lacking, so some material tapering should be on the way. This should keep the rate profile of NZD significantly more attractive than AUD and support a move to 0.75 in NZD/USD by year-end.