NZDUSD reverses from 200-SMA hurdle on RBNZ’s surprise rate cut

NZDUSD dropped over 1.0% today, making the biggest move among major currencies. This happened because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its main interest rate by 0.25%, surprising markets which expected no change. As a result, the NZDUSD pair fell from a one-month high and struggled to break through a key resistance level, namely the 200-day SMA.

Despite this, positive MACD and RSI indicators suggest that buyers may stay optimistic, as long as the price remains above a support line from late October 2023, currently around 0.5885. For the short-term, the quote could drop to the 0.6000 mark and potentially test a 23.6% Fibonacci support level around 0.5920. A drop below 0.5885 could push the pair towards its late 2023 low of around 0.5770.

For a new buying opportunity, buyers should wait for the price to break above the 200-SMA resistance at about 0.6085. If successful, the next targets could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a significant resistance zone near 0.6170 and 0.6220. If the price stays above 0.6220, the 78.6% Fibonacci level around 0.6275 and a long-term resistance line near 0.6320 could be the next barriers for the bulls.

In summary, while NZDUSD might see a short-term drop due to negative factors, the overall bullish trend is expected to continue.