What should we expect in 2023?

2022년 12월 31일

First I would like to say "Happy New Year" to all my followers and wish you good fortune in 2023.

This chart shows yearly candles in the past 40 years for NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones.

In these charts, you can see yearly changes in 2022, 2009,2008, 2001, and 2000.

To plan your investment strategies in 2023, you need to answer this question:

What stage of an Economic Cycle are we in?

To answer this question you need to know what an Economic Cycle is, and what data can help us determine its current stage.

An economic cycle is the overall state of the economy as it goes through four stages in a cyclical pattern:

- Expansion
- Peak
- Contraction
- Trough

Factors that can help determine the current stage of the economic cycle:

- GDP
- Interest rates
- Total employment
- Consumer spending




What do you think?

What stage of an Economic cycle are we in?

My answer to this question is: Economic cycle has peaked and we will enter the contraction phase in 2023.

Average Contraction Duration, peak to trough between 1854-2022: 17 months.


Once again I wish you a happy new year.

Best,

If you like to read more, here is the link to the article I used as a reference:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/economic-cycle.asp

2023년 1월 3일

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2023년 2월 7일

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Contractions speed up:

Dell is laying off 6,650 employees, 5% of the workforce

We are approaching 100,000 total tech layoffs this year in just 5 weeks. There were 159,000 tech layoffs in all of 2022.

2023년 4월 19일

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