Nasdaq100 MAKE it or BREAK it

After seven weeks of downward movement in the Nasdaq100 losing more than 22% it closed this week at 11835 points, it is now near to test the 200EMA at 11362 points (red line) for the first time since 2020 pandemic sell-off and that’s the last major support on the medium term and historically the 200EMA is the strongest support in the uptrend, so we have two scenarios now first one is to rebound from here like what happened in 2018 and 2020 with aggressive buyers and huge volumes signaling a clear control for the buyers, in this case, investors are advised to wait till the first confirmation and reenter the market and accumulate long positions and to close all short positions.
The second scenario is to penetrate this level to the downside to break the 200EMA for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 and accordingly that will break the uptrend in the medium term and enter a downtrend market controlled by Bears, in this case, investors are advised to close all the long positions and keep as much cash as they can using maximum 30% of the cash to open short positions till the confirmation of the market direction or any appearance of reversal signs.