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Litecoin - The Last Stand

업데이트됨

The reason I still track Litecoin is because I think it can be useful as a bellwether for Bitcoin's price movements. Since it also operates on a 4 year halving cycle and uses proof-of-work (with a different algorithm), I think it offers useful clues as to how the market really feels. Sure, it might be going out of fashion, but volume for LTC shows otherwise. In fact, on-balance-volume (OBV, blue at bottom) has continued to trend UP while price has moved sideways/down. Traditionally, this implies that the asset is being accumulated.

Of course, this theory will go up in smoke if LTC cannot hold this trendline, which could indicate a pretty quick selloff back towards $80. Zoomed in, you can see the $80-90 price target more easily, along with a $250 target at the downtrend, should Litecoin hold up here.

There are some concerning developments in the market. For instance, the TOTAL crypto market cap is on the verge of breaking down from an important trendline, after already breaking down from the trendline held since March, 2020. ETH has also already broken down from its uptrend since March, 2020. Zoomed out:

Zoomed in:

Here's ETH:

Needless to say, crypto is getting to a point where it can move sideways/down for quite some time if things don't pick back up pretty quickly. From a technical standpoint, this seems to be a bit of a "last stand" for the market. Even if the market does bounce and make a new high, I am still essentially in "sell the rally" mode, as I explained in my last video.

If LTC bounces here and breaks the downtrend, the probability of hitting the top of the long term channel increases, or at the very least LTC can finally make a new all-time high. The network is getting it's MimbleWimble upgrade this month, which adds fungibility to one of the most liquid crypto assets out there. I'm surprised this isn't playing a larger role in the news cycle, though I guess it's being overshadowed by all the other ridiculous stuff going on. Nevertheless, this is a pretty big advancement for the space, considering true adoption is difficult due to ledger transparency. Corporations and individuals do not want others seeing their full transaction history and balances. A larger amount of our economy than we'd like to admit probably operates on various money laundering and tax-evasion schemes. Ironically, cash and dollars are still the best tools for that. The media will paint a dark picture of Bitcoin, but the powers that be might not want crypto adoption because it would force them to become more transparent about their nefarious activities. With fungibility, crypto becomes more like cash, which is both a good and a bad thing.

Let's see what happens. The future unfolds before us in the charts, which are just a representation of our collective behavior. It's not meant to be predictive. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only - not financial advice.

-Victor Cobra

노트

I finally took some more profit off the table (bought most of my crypto during the previous bear market). Would be nice to have some extra cash on hand in case things get REALLY ugly, but still enough crypto to feel good if things continue up eventually. Just not liking the way things are looking fundamentally at the moment.

노트

Ooof,