Litecoin Breaks The Long Term Uptrend + Altcoin Collapse
업데이트됨
Victor, enough with the bearish posts already!!! Honestly, with such a gloomy outlook, the market might as well just reverse here and punish all the people who sell out of fear, and punish you for selling early, you paper hand you!!!
But I'm just writing about what I see and expressing my current opinion. Here goes the analysis. I apologize if I seem a little delirious - I'm nearing the end of my graduate program and feel quite burned out. That's it with the disclaimers.
Anyway, Litecoin has never closed a week below the long term uptrend (light blue). It looks like it's just about to do so. Violating such a long term uptrend is an extreme sign of weakness for the once lauded alternative to Bitcoin. Confirmation here could send it all the way back to $20-40 quickly, and eventually even back to levels not seen since prior to the 2017 bull market. I know, this may sound nuts, but the market always does what no one is expecting. Currently, either people are expecting Bitcoin to reach 100k eventually, or that it'll bounce if it drops below 30k. I actually think that if it drops below Summer 2021 lows, the chances of it ever reaching 100k decrease dramatically, and the entire market could actually collapse. A drop below those levels would invalidate Bitcoin's last remaining use-case: a store of value and a better performer than "traditional" assets.
In December, 2021, I wrote about why the crypto market looked precarious, and explained that altcoins could drop another 50-80% from those levels. Here is the post:
That was one of my last bullish-leaning posts on the market. Since then, a number of bearish confirmations have occurred, as a recovery seems less and less likely.
Back in February, I also wrote a post about why Cosmos (ATOM) could head right back to $8 once the uptrend was broken. Here's the original post:
As shown on the main chart for this analysis, the uptrend for ATOM is now broken.
In March, I wrote about why I thought we could see similar market behavior to July-August 2018. Since then, the market managed to recover slightly, only to find strong resistance at the 50 week MA, confirming the bearish trend. Right now, this idea is dangerously close to coming to fruition:
Bitcoin dominance is very close to breaking the 50 week MA (Red).
If this coincides with a drop in Bitcoin price, it will be a total massacre for alts.
There is always a chance the market will reverse and recover. However, I've personally divested almost entirely from this market, and have begun to reassess and adapt. Bitcoin continues to be accumulated, as coins on exchanges are at a record low. But is such low liquidity really that good for Bitcoin, especially when demand is so low? I guess we'll see.
This represents my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
But I'm just writing about what I see and expressing my current opinion. Here goes the analysis. I apologize if I seem a little delirious - I'm nearing the end of my graduate program and feel quite burned out. That's it with the disclaimers.
Anyway, Litecoin has never closed a week below the long term uptrend (light blue). It looks like it's just about to do so. Violating such a long term uptrend is an extreme sign of weakness for the once lauded alternative to Bitcoin. Confirmation here could send it all the way back to $20-40 quickly, and eventually even back to levels not seen since prior to the 2017 bull market. I know, this may sound nuts, but the market always does what no one is expecting. Currently, either people are expecting Bitcoin to reach 100k eventually, or that it'll bounce if it drops below 30k. I actually think that if it drops below Summer 2021 lows, the chances of it ever reaching 100k decrease dramatically, and the entire market could actually collapse. A drop below those levels would invalidate Bitcoin's last remaining use-case: a store of value and a better performer than "traditional" assets.
In December, 2021, I wrote about why the crypto market looked precarious, and explained that altcoins could drop another 50-80% from those levels. Here is the post:
That was one of my last bullish-leaning posts on the market. Since then, a number of bearish confirmations have occurred, as a recovery seems less and less likely.
Back in February, I also wrote a post about why Cosmos (ATOM) could head right back to $8 once the uptrend was broken. Here's the original post:
As shown on the main chart for this analysis, the uptrend for ATOM is now broken.
In March, I wrote about why I thought we could see similar market behavior to July-August 2018. Since then, the market managed to recover slightly, only to find strong resistance at the 50 week MA, confirming the bearish trend. Right now, this idea is dangerously close to coming to fruition:
Bitcoin dominance is very close to breaking the 50 week MA (Red).
If this coincides with a drop in Bitcoin price, it will be a total massacre for alts.
There is always a chance the market will reverse and recover. However, I've personally divested almost entirely from this market, and have begun to reassess and adapt. Bitcoin continues to be accumulated, as coins on exchanges are at a record low. But is such low liquidity really that good for Bitcoin, especially when demand is so low? I guess we'll see.
This represents my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
노트
CRO is another one that looked pretty good for a while, but broke back into its channel. Looks like it's easily headed for another 50%+ haircut in price, especially after the recent news. 
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