Pound, and we are preparing for the Fed announcement

2019년 12월 11일

On December 15, the United States will not increase tariffs on Chinese goods.The reason is that the negotiation process between the US and
China continues. The news was supposed to provoke sales in safe-haven assets, but it did not happen. That only confirmed our recommendation to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday basis.

Another quite revealing statement yesterday was the growth of the pound after frankly weak macroeconomic data came out: GDP, industrial production, and the trade balance were worse than expected and were generally weak (GDP growth at minimum levels since 2012). Nevertheless, the pound, as a result, did not decline but even strengthened. The reason is the same - markets expect a conservative party to succeed in the Thursday elections and the subsequent “soft” Brexit. We continue to recommend buying the pound.

The key event on Wednesday will be the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee on the parameters of monetary policy in the United States.

After the publication of data on the labour market in the United States last Friday, it became clear that the Fed would not lower or raise the rate. Thus, the probability of maintaining the status quo is 98%. Therefore, do not count on strong movements in dollar pairs today.

Accordingly, our trading tactics for the dollar today are unchanged - we will continue to look for opportunities to sell the dollar.

As for the oil market, despite the data on the growth of oil reserves in the United States (figures from the API showed an increase of 1.41 million barrels, official statistics from the US Department of Energy will be published tonight), we continue to consider oil purchases in the current conditions quite pe promising trading idea.