stagflation is the base case for the UK! I cant see the Tories winning in 24months time, so I expect the pound to start pricing in a Labour victory, which also means a spending round to get public services back to par!
I really think the pound is now like a 3rd world country, when Labour comes into power, it will target the very rich, those who are mobile, and I suspect financial planning will start as early as 2023 and London house prices will take a massive hit. The BoE will have no choice but to cut rates and the government will have to rollback taxes, they are now the highest in peacetime.
It could go the other way, but I don't know what will make it, certainly wont be Sunak, it has to be something like paying off all of its debt while the US and EU plunge into some kind of war or economic depression and the UK stays out!
I really think the pound is now like a 3rd world country, when Labour comes into power, it will target the very rich, those who are mobile, and I suspect financial planning will start as early as 2023 and London house prices will take a massive hit. The BoE will have no choice but to cut rates and the government will have to rollback taxes, they are now the highest in peacetime.
It could go the other way, but I don't know what will make it, certainly wont be Sunak, it has to be something like paying off all of its debt while the US and EU plunge into some kind of war or economic depression and the UK stays out!
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I like to add, its not 24months until the next election, it is 18months! So selling the pound in what is a certain Labour victory is the right thing to do