A brief analysis of EUR-USD to understand the situation we are experiencing. Above, you can see the chart with highlighted the "sensitive" levels/zones of the currency pair.
What appears graphically is a distribution phase, after the rise from mid-May to the end of August. This is what the Euro COT report also shows. In fact, during the lateralization phase of EUR-USD, the net position fell from the record level reached at the end of August by over 200k. This means that the funds have closed long positions on the Euro.
On the other hand, in recent weeks, the net position of the Dollar Index has risen returning, albeit slightly, to the positive.
As concerns fundamentals, the Euro ones are worsening (with the addition of the various lockdowns that will increase this deterioration), while those of the dollar are slightly improving. You can verify this yourself by analysing the most important macroeconomic data of the two economies.
In conclusion, my view of Eur-Usd is bearish in the coming weeks with a medium-term target in the 1.12300/1.13000 area.
What appears graphically is a distribution phase, after the rise from mid-May to the end of August. This is what the Euro COT report also shows. In fact, during the lateralization phase of EUR-USD, the net position fell from the record level reached at the end of August by over 200k. This means that the funds have closed long positions on the Euro.
On the other hand, in recent weeks, the net position of the Dollar Index has risen returning, albeit slightly, to the positive.
As concerns fundamentals, the Euro ones are worsening (with the addition of the various lockdowns that will increase this deterioration), while those of the dollar are slightly improving. You can verify this yourself by analysing the most important macroeconomic data of the two economies.
In conclusion, my view of Eur-Usd is bearish in the coming weeks with a medium-term target in the 1.12300/1.13000 area.