In this post ill mention the new price range, what supports the downtrend?, and at what price the downtrend may be capped, and for what reasons?.
What supports the downtrend?
1- EU is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures if the U.K. fails to implement its post Brexit obligations.
2- U.S. Congress members agreed to $761.8 billion in new spending over 8 years, Senate passed $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's economic heft by bolstering American manufacturing and technology.
3- Germany government has extended financial support until the end of September as the fallout from Covid-19 persists for EU's largest economy even as infections ebb.
4- EU judges hit back a "declaration of war" from German court.
6- ECB speech " spread of virus continues to be a source of downside risks, too early to end PEPP, inflation risks, dovish stance, rising yields that hinders the economic recovery.
For what reasons the downtrend may be capped?
1- Fed is expected to be dovish despite the overheating economy and the high inflation risks that would put the U.S. at risk of political and economic disruption.
2- The NFP release which was seen less than forecasted and signs for the Fed's unachieved goal of unemployment.
3- Italy won more than 65 billion euros of orders for its sale of 10-year bonds, more than six times the amount on offer.
4- EU businesses are increasing in China and moving supply chains on shore.
5- EU approved vaccine passports.
What is the new price range?
- According to the new mixed fundamentals and as the inflation and central banker's decisions taking all the investors attention there are 2 likely scenarios to happen,
1- To hold exchange rate (1.21-1.22) till FED's interest rate decision (1.2050-1.2240), (THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN).
2- To hold exchange rate (1.20-1.21) till FED's interest rate decision (1.1960- 1.2150), (MEANS FAVORING THE DOLLAR ANYWAY, POSSIBLE BUT UNLKELY TO HAPPEN).
- IF THE FED HAPPENS TO BE HAWKISH THE DOWNTREND WILL GAIN STRENGTH AND WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1950 -
What supports the downtrend?
1- EU is ready to consider tougher retaliatory measures if the U.K. fails to implement its post Brexit obligations.
2- U.S. Congress members agreed to $761.8 billion in new spending over 8 years, Senate passed $250 billion bill aimed at countering China's economic heft by bolstering American manufacturing and technology.
3- Germany government has extended financial support until the end of September as the fallout from Covid-19 persists for EU's largest economy even as infections ebb.
4- EU judges hit back a "declaration of war" from German court.
6- ECB speech " spread of virus continues to be a source of downside risks, too early to end PEPP, inflation risks, dovish stance, rising yields that hinders the economic recovery.
For what reasons the downtrend may be capped?
1- Fed is expected to be dovish despite the overheating economy and the high inflation risks that would put the U.S. at risk of political and economic disruption.
2- The NFP release which was seen less than forecasted and signs for the Fed's unachieved goal of unemployment.
3- Italy won more than 65 billion euros of orders for its sale of 10-year bonds, more than six times the amount on offer.
4- EU businesses are increasing in China and moving supply chains on shore.
5- EU approved vaccine passports.
What is the new price range?
- According to the new mixed fundamentals and as the inflation and central banker's decisions taking all the investors attention there are 2 likely scenarios to happen,
1- To hold exchange rate (1.21-1.22) till FED's interest rate decision (1.2050-1.2240), (THIS SCENARIO IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN).
2- To hold exchange rate (1.20-1.21) till FED's interest rate decision (1.1960- 1.2150), (MEANS FAVORING THE DOLLAR ANYWAY, POSSIBLE BUT UNLKELY TO HAPPEN).
- IF THE FED HAPPENS TO BE HAWKISH THE DOWNTREND WILL GAIN STRENGTH AND WOULD BREAK BELOW 1.1950 -