A very good time to update the Euro chart after the infamous "Worm in the apple". For those who have not played before I highly recommend seeing the textbook examples from the playbook here:
EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown.
For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance. The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support.
Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing:
I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD .
The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency.
Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues.
Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
EUR holding well and failing to give anything back to bears after our flawless swing earlier in the week (but also not taking the widely mentioned key 1.11xx resistance). While its both unsurprising and clear that risk markets are less sanguine, perhaps what is surprising is the resilience the Euro has shown.
For those macro players this is screaming loudly !!!! that FX positioning is changing into yearend and the flight to quality into USD is losing its importance. The technical jurisdictions are clearly mapped with 1.109x acting as resistance, if US data undershoots again today a break of the highs is in play. Those looking to add bullish exposure should track the 1.103x support.
Remember we can comfortably lean on the long-term swing:
I am expecting EUR to find a strong bid next year as we see a new chapter in growth differentials. This will act as a catalyst in the reversal of capitals flows from the euro area to the US and serve as support in EURUSD .
The risk to the thesis comes from European growth flopping next year, investors will therefore expect lower returns from the euro area and therefore European assets would sell off, weighing heavy on the currency.
Short-term threatening to enter into wide consolidation till year-end, price action eminent of strong support at current levels. I sense that a clean break of 1.11 is now being watched as the catalyst for fresh demand and am comfortable buying anything inside the 1.09xx handle, as opposed to chasing the breakout. Watching EURJPY through 120.70 for clues.
Good luck to all those trading the buy side and today's data. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
