While recent EUR/USD gains have been exaggerated in our view and could be followed by a correction lower in the near term, we think that the mix of drivers behind the currency pair would remain largely positive, allowing it to regain more ground in the next 6-12M. Turning to EUR/USD, we expect that the policy convergence between the ECB and the Fed will remain the main support for the pair in the coming months. In particular, ECB rate hikes should support the EUR’s relative rate appeal while its QT could continue to boost EGB yields and thus attract portfolio inflows from abroad.
EUR/USD 4HR
Stronger selling price action on the lower timeframes I would like to see a base formed around the 1.11 level.
EUR/USD 1HR
We would have to wait for the the 20 EMA (Blue) and 50 EMA (Red) to cross over and strong buying price action lead the way for long positions to be taken.
EUR/USD 4HR
EUR/USD 1HR