Can EUR/USD Bounce From it's strong trendline Support?

EUR/USD is testing its strong trendline support zone. Fundamentally EUR/USD has the most possibility to drop below its trendline support. After breaking below 1.0800 will confirm the trendline support zone breakout. But as long as EUR/USD is above the trendline support zone, it still has chances to go upside technically. But different fundamental factors say, this time EUR/USD may drop[ below the trendline support zone.

In my view, we should not be in hurry. W should wait. If EUR/USD creates a bullish-pin bar or Ukraine negotiates with Russia, in this case, the most possible scenario is EUR/USD may bounce back. But, if Russia and Ukraine tension accelerate more, I think EUR/USD must drop below the trendline support zone.

Higher oil prices will also hurt the EUR. Yeah, as long as EUR/USD is above its strong trendline support zone, there is still hope. But if it breaks below 1.0800 daily of H4 candle, EUR/USD must die. On the downside, our first target will be 1.0650, and breaking 1.0650 final target is 1.0400.

On the other hand, as long as EUR/USD is above the Trendline support zone, it may test the 1.1120 and finally 1.1500 price zone again.