ETH Losing Range Midpoint?

Similarly to Bitcoin, Ethereum finds itself around the midpoint of the high time frame range, only ETH has already lost the level and has rejected when retesting. Such a lack of strength is concerning for the project as well as the broader altcoin market.

So there are a few actionable moves I'm looking out for:

Bullish scenario is we maybe chop for a while around/under the midpoint then with high volume the midpoint gets flipped with conviction. That would open the door for the top half of the range to be accessible again. I think this scenario relies on the US Government shutdown coming to an end and QT also ending. Right now there just isn't the liquidity needed to prop up prices hence the slow bleed.

Bearish scenario is a simple continuation of the local bearish trend where 0.25 ($2,800) is the target. This area signaled the break in structure responsible for the previous rally and so I believe it will provide support but is also the target for the bears to reach.