ETHs CENTURY Parabolic Countermeasure

2022년 1월 9일

ETHUSD The slow down in volume from the most recent parabolic move is an indication of the baton changing hands. Most of the early entries during Sep/Oct run out are going to be cashing chips or dollar cost avg out...

Therefore this is why I believe we're going for the big CENTURY pullback.

2nd Impulsive Run Stats
Lasted 217 days - Volume of 72Mil (Coinbase) With a growth of 1110%

And as we know, parabolic runs = healthy corrections within the eco system.

We already saw a 60% bearish engulf off the ATH. However the candle sticks and price action show this was a FOMO / dip opp rather than a major correction.
This mild breather allowed for late byers to pile in which allowed price to climbing another micro leg or two. (greedy monkey)

FOMO leg-up stats
ETH pushed another 180% off FOMO impulsive in 112d.
Bringing us to... A 329 DAY BULL RUN
This time vol output was 23.3 Million.
*Notice something ?*

Considering we just made a new ATH. Why isn't the volume increasing... Bull Trap. Ladies and Gents.
ETH imo is in a full blown trap phase.
We can tell by matching the RSI (Relative Strength Index) to the overall chart trend to see despite ETH pushing higher the RSI was in fact making lower highs. Causing for a strong case of hidden bearish divergence to form.
Which means due to the a lack of strength coming into the market, price simply cannot maintain its bullish momentum no more. Although we got a 2nd ATH within the cycle I wouldn't be screaming off the roof tops over 12%.
Considering 2018 High was broken by around 230%.

Now I think the July late entries are going to be quite scared and since we didn't see a further breakout -- we could see a blow off top in a form of a BTC head and shoulders
The dotted lines show my S/Rs So I feel if price does sell, 19xx would be the neckline. If the trap holds true this will be the HOLD THE LINEEE. (the last major line of defence) for them later investors.
I feel that POI. Has potential to create a Right shoulder. Now if that happens and we see a move similar too the BTC H&S formation, it wouldn't be off the cards to say a deeper ETH correction is looming.

If we target correctly by timesing the Neckline to the top of the head by two, price lines up to some interesting areas and some key fib extension levels.
We would also get the 100% impulsive correction like the one we had from 2018 bull run and since history loves to repeat its self this theory isn't so wild for it to play out.

I personally wouldn't be calling ETH back to 3 figure territory. Though, I do feel a cycle cleanse is closing in with the phasing of ETH 2.0. So my personal target of ETH is 1150 USD before going on a bullish run to 8k+

Since TA is subjective options do change but as of now I can see a Big winter blowout, Hoo-Hoo.
Please let me know if you agree and can strengthen or weaken this theory and I'll see you in my BTC breakdown.

2022년 1월 11일

노트

We have a Head and Shoulders in a smaller range of the overall macro structure. Although with oversold levels in the current market I expect to see a leg up towards these potential fib levels. There is alot of market depth in and around the peak of the left shoulder so I will be interesting to see how price reacts to that resistance if it get theres.
For now we have to wait for price to come to us. Structure is king.