EXPECTATIONS: Nonfarm payrolls (exp. 182k, prev. 49k); Private Payrolls (exp. 210k, prev. 6k); Manufacturing Payrolls (exp. 18k, prev. -10k); Government Payrolls (prev. 43k); Unemployment Rate (exp. 6.3%, prev. 6.3%); Average Hourly Earnings M/M (exp. +0.2%, prev. 0.2%); Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y (exp. 5.3%, prev. 5.4%); Average Workweek Hours (exp. 34.9hrs, prev. 35.0hrs); Participation Rate (prev. 61.4%), U6 Underemployment (prev. 11.1%).
MARKET REACTION: While a clear report in itself is not expected to alter the Fed's stance -- Powell Thursday repeated that it would be a while before the US is back at full employment -- there are concerns that a strong report might continue to pressure the long-end of the Treasury curve, lifting yields further upwards, which could also apply pressure to the equity complex. Conversely, a soft jobs report could perhaps rein in the long-end, although fixed income participants will begin to look to next week's long-end auctions, particularly within the context of questions that remain over whether SLR relief for banks will be extended beyond March, perhaps keeping the bond market on edge.
MARKET REACTION: While a clear report in itself is not expected to alter the Fed's stance -- Powell Thursday repeated that it would be a while before the US is back at full employment -- there are concerns that a strong report might continue to pressure the long-end of the Treasury curve, lifting yields further upwards, which could also apply pressure to the equity complex. Conversely, a soft jobs report could perhaps rein in the long-end, although fixed income participants will begin to look to next week's long-end auctions, particularly within the context of questions that remain over whether SLR relief for banks will be extended beyond March, perhaps keeping the bond market on edge.