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Core inflation expected to remain hot

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the most important inflation measure, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, on Tuesday, March 14 at 12:30 GMT.

The annual US inflation is expected to decline to 6.0% from 6.4% in January, while the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen to remain hot at 5.5% from 5.6%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast at 0.4%, while the Core CPI is also expected at 0.4% – for 3rd straight month in February.

If headline inflation comes in at or above 6.2% YoY, it would further shake risk sentiment as the Fed would likely be forced to hike again despite several bank collapses this week.

If headline inflation turns out to be at or below 5.9% YoY, that would support risk sentiment and give the Fed more room to pause its rate hiking cycle and possibly ease monetary policy if required.

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