Bitcoin: ETF = sell the news event + pre-halving drop align
The closer we get to a spot bitcoin ETF approval (~2nd to 10th of January 2024) the more I think it will play out as a crypto typical "sell the news" event. I kind of think it's priced in already and the latest rally was 90% driven by this narrative. Please don't get me wrong, I'm sure BTC-ETFs will have a positive impact on price for all the obvious reasons, but not immediately on approval but ~2 months later when the ETFs will actually be available.
And now imagine you are one of the Blackrock guys who want to sell their brand new btc ETF to large customers, wouldn't it be beautiful, if you could offer them BTC at a great price?
What I'm preparing for is this:
(Please note: the whole idea of a "sell the news" event around the ETF approval obviously only makes sense as long as BTC stays at least above 40k. If it sells off significantly (35-30k) before it might as well play out exactly the other way round and we'll see some ETF approval rally in January.)
And now imagine you are one of the Blackrock guys who want to sell their brand new btc ETF to large customers, wouldn't it be beautiful, if you could offer them BTC at a great price?
What I'm preparing for is this:
- Sell the news event in early January 2024 --> price down to the green buying area (30k - 25k) and very maybe (though unlikely) even wicks down below closer to 20k.
- Sideways into the halving ~18th of April 2024.
- Next bull run 24/25 from there.
(Please note: the whole idea of a "sell the news" event around the ETF approval obviously only makes sense as long as BTC stays at least above 40k. If it sells off significantly (35-30k) before it might as well play out exactly the other way round and we'll see some ETF approval rally in January.)