On this chart, I track $BTC on a higher time frame on a logarithmic price scale. As displayed in the chart, $BTC creates triangles with rising support on a macro scale. As shown in the image, generally, these triangles can break either up or down. Ascending triangles can be observed by spotting higher lows, while highs remain at a similar price. Descending triangles are described by lower highs with stable support (which eventually breaks). With the adoption on a rise, I believe $BTC will break out of this triangle and will set a new ATH yet again before the next financial crisis.
The chart shows that post each halving cycle, there is a substantial rise in the price of $BTC due to its scarcity and realization of how much less $BTC will be available to the market. In all 3 halving cycles, there are three similarities observed:
1. Breakout out of the macro triangle
2. Swing high and retracement
3. Blow off top/Cycle top
So far, in the current halving cycle, we have had both a break out of the triangle and the swing high with the retracement (accumulation zone). We are still missing the 4) Halving Cycle High. Also, a blow-off top is a parabolic run, or the grand finale, of a bull run in which $BTC sees a sharp price increase, just before the bear market. Bitcoin has made a new ATH in April 2021 and then again in November of the same year - this would not constitute a blow-off top.
Currently, $BTC is ranging in an ascending triangle (in blue) and is making a higher low. From here, $BTC should break out of the accumulation zone, retest it, and attempt to make a new ATH for this halving cycle. The longer the consolidation, the larger the reaction will be.
Also, $BTC has formed a falling wedge twice (marked in orange), while ranging in the rising triangle (in blue). The first time, the price found the support at the support line of the rising triangle (blue support), as well as, at the bottom of the reversal pattern (falling wedge in orange).
As pointed out in the chart (white line), previous bear markets following the cycle high ended up retracing $BTC back to 2) swing high area. Therefore, we can assume $BTC would retrace back to the $60K area during the next bear market.
The chart shows that post each halving cycle, there is a substantial rise in the price of $BTC due to its scarcity and realization of how much less $BTC will be available to the market. In all 3 halving cycles, there are three similarities observed:
1. Breakout out of the macro triangle
2. Swing high and retracement
3. Blow off top/Cycle top
So far, in the current halving cycle, we have had both a break out of the triangle and the swing high with the retracement (accumulation zone). We are still missing the 4) Halving Cycle High. Also, a blow-off top is a parabolic run, or the grand finale, of a bull run in which $BTC sees a sharp price increase, just before the bear market. Bitcoin has made a new ATH in April 2021 and then again in November of the same year - this would not constitute a blow-off top.
Currently, $BTC is ranging in an ascending triangle (in blue) and is making a higher low. From here, $BTC should break out of the accumulation zone, retest it, and attempt to make a new ATH for this halving cycle. The longer the consolidation, the larger the reaction will be.
Also, $BTC has formed a falling wedge twice (marked in orange), while ranging in the rising triangle (in blue). The first time, the price found the support at the support line of the rising triangle (blue support), as well as, at the bottom of the reversal pattern (falling wedge in orange).
As pointed out in the chart (white line), previous bear markets following the cycle high ended up retracing $BTC back to 2) swing high area. Therefore, we can assume $BTC would retrace back to the $60K area during the next bear market.