Hello and please appreciate my first BTC analysis. :)
Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium.
Green line - bullish trend line
Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market
Violet upper area - sell signal
Violet lower area - accumulation signal
Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area.
But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling.
First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out!
What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily.
But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :>
P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks!
P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.
Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium.
Green line - bullish trend line
Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market
Violet upper area - sell signal
Violet lower area - accumulation signal
Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area.
But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling.
First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out!
What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily.
But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :>
P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks!
P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.
코멘트:
BTC bounced off the lower violet area. May still test the ground. My target for accumulation is $3675.
코멘트:
$3000 hodling.
코멘트:
Funny how BTC bottomed exactly at the lower violet area...
코멘트:
Accumulation continues.
코멘트:
Pretty nice move to the upside. We are again in the green chanel. We need to break $4250 to move higher, following the green trend line. Another bigger resistance will be @ $6000 and $8000. Why $8000? Read here: blog.goodaudience.co...plified-8ad656af299a
코멘트:
#testpump#testdump #simulationofasimulation
코멘트:
Ok, so we moved up guys. We have already retraced 5-6% from yesterday's run. Look @ $4880 to accumulate more. Observe ALT/BTC pairs. I would not recommend shorting, rather adding during pullbacks to your inventory. Cheers!
P.S.: That bounce back from the violet upper area doesn't look nice.
P.S.: That bounce back from the violet upper area doesn't look nice.
코멘트:
If we go to the upper violet area do not forget to lock in some profits, folks! Observe the $5450 level carefully.
In other case, keep accumulating.
My target for next 3 weeks: $6350 - $6800.
In other case, keep accumulating.
My target for next 3 weeks: $6350 - $6800.
코멘트:
I remind you guys of the $8000 resistance mentioned in the 24th Feb comment.
코멘트:
I assume we will stabilize @ ~ $10000 per BTC during September 2019. My bias is to the fact that we won't break the green trend line. Maybe one or two false breakouts to shake out woollies. ;)
코멘트:
---> $8700
코멘트:
The green line has become a support again. Respecting the support, we may finish 2019 @ $15000. #hodl
코멘트:
Green line as resistance atm.
