In this analysis I want to discuss the possibility that Bitcoin is copying the 2019 mid-cycle bull-market and the following bear market.
I don't see this as the most likely scenario, but it's still a scenario that can happen one way or another.
As seen on the chart, Bitcoin saw a massive ~370% gain after bottoming in November 2022. A similar gain was achieved back in 2019, which ended up in a ~70% drop. I'm aware that the majority of the drop was caused by the COVID-dump. But, since the post-COVID bull-market also followed previous market patterns I don't see why we can't have a 70% dump again.
A 70% dump from the 74k top would result in a move towards ~22k, a major hit for crypto as a whole.
Furthermore, this would strongly diminish the probability of BTC topping out in Q4-2024 as mentioned in my analysis below.
Maybe this cycle is going to be different all together? We reached a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever, so chances are that the cycle-theory is dead and that BTC is behaving as a highly volatile stock?
Interested to hear your thoughts!
I don't see this as the most likely scenario, but it's still a scenario that can happen one way or another.
As seen on the chart, Bitcoin saw a massive ~370% gain after bottoming in November 2022. A similar gain was achieved back in 2019, which ended up in a ~70% drop. I'm aware that the majority of the drop was caused by the COVID-dump. But, since the post-COVID bull-market also followed previous market patterns I don't see why we can't have a 70% dump again.
A 70% dump from the 74k top would result in a move towards ~22k, a major hit for crypto as a whole.
Furthermore, this would strongly diminish the probability of BTC topping out in Q4-2024 as mentioned in my analysis below.
Maybe this cycle is going to be different all together? We reached a new ATH before the halving for the first time ever, so chances are that the cycle-theory is dead and that BTC is behaving as a highly volatile stock?
Interested to hear your thoughts!
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