Bitcoin - Do not get fooled by bullish calls

2022년 7월 11일

Persistence of bearish fundamental factors continues to support our bearish view on the cryptocurrency market. We expect more rate hikes (by the FED) and economic tightening to bolster the selloff in the general stock market. Subsequently, we expect that to drag the price of Bitcoin to new lows. The same picture is painted by technical factors, which point to more downside for Bitcoin. Accordingly, we maintain our price targets of 17 500 USD and 15 000 USD.

Illustration 1.01

The chart depicts Bitcoin trading at 2018 price level. The upper yellow dashed line connects peaks; the lower yellow dashed line is parallel to the upper line. Corrections of the downtrend are indicated by yellow arrows; it is observable that prior pauses in the selling pressure were followed by sideways moving price action. Subsequently, that was followed by a new low in the price of Bitcoin. At the moment, we observe the same development on the daily chart.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. The MACD flattens. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.02

The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for BTCUSD.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish.

Illustration 1.03

The chart above shows the price of BTCUSD and volume. It can be seen that volume is at monthly lows over the past ten years. Although, in the past three months, as selloff progressed, volume picked up a little bit.

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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.