RLinda ! BTCUSD-> Forming a new cycle? Or...

2022년 11월 22일

BTCUSD is entering the beginning of a new phase based on cycle formation. The breakdown of the consolidation indicates a continuation of the movement to critical marks, which may motivate many holders of the asset to capitulate. Market maker continues to destroy investors and miners?)

1)
( Chart 1: Falling price below the bitcoin mining industry average)

Bitcoin (BTC) miners are seeking (unwittingly :D) strong selling, which peaked back in 2015 on the back of the cryptohedon of those days. The flagship asset's price is falling below the bitcoin mining industry average, making miners quite nervous. The entire segment seems to be going through a rough patch.

Over the past three weeks (since the first FTX insolvency rumors), BTC miners have increased their selling pressure by almost 400%. That figure has jumped to 2015 levels.

If the price of BTC does not recover in the coming weeks, many miners will be forced to stop working due to heavy losses.
In addition, this period signals that mining can no longer be considered passive income.

The only way to explain the rising hash rate when the price is dumping is for some very big players with access to extremely cheap energy coming into the mining game on a scale of


(Graph 2. Weekly timeframe and estimated development of the situation against historical data)

The current crypto market tests the confidence and trust of participants in the sector:

• -Many institutional investors expect the current bearish phase to continue
  
• -Glassnode report supports the same
  

Average deposit size on all major exchanges is increasing in dollar terms as the bottom is forming (presumably). Average inflow volume is a metric for determining cryptocurrency returns on exchanges after investors sell them.

This trend has been a priority since May and echoes the maneuvers of 2018-2019.
In 2018, a sell-off from the $20000 level led to bitcoin falling to around $3000 in December 2018.
The overall bearish trend continued through 2019. It took about the same time this year for Bitcoin to fall 77% from $60000 levels in November 2021 to a new cycle low on November 22 at $15479

Analysts believe the current downward trend will continue in the coming months following the same pattern as in 2018, where it took several months to form a bottom and move up after the 2018 crash


(Chart 3: Three senior bitcoin timeframes. technical analysis)

• The flagship is testing the lows of the last two years and updating the two-week bottom. The price is already below 15500.
  
• Weekly chart: Last week closes near a local low. On Tuesday of the new week, price is headed below the low.
  
• On the monthly chart, price comes out of a 5-month consolidation down. Drill the bottom further.
  
• The daily moving averages are still as resistance.
  
• The daily MACD is in the bearish zone, a new bearish wave is developing on the chart after two big bearish candles form
  
• The daily RSI is in the bearish zone and is falling back to the oversold zone
  

Sincerely R. Linda!

2022년 11월 22일

노트

Miner sales continue since FTX collapse
Sales are ramping up to 135% of mined.
That is, they are selling 1/3 more of what they are mining. Cumulative balance of BTC miners for at least 10 months (approximately $30 billion) (based on data (Glassnode)
The bottom indicator (blue line) shows the difficulty of mining, which continues to break records despite the ongoing decline.

While the price is entering the miners' risk zone, namely below the industry average cost of mining bitcoin, a cascade of margin calls and other forced selling by miners and other investors is increasing

2022년 11월 23일

노트

(Chart-5. 2-week timeframe. History of the largest corrections from the hawks)

*The current drop is inferior in percentage terms to the 2017-2018, 2013-2015, 2010 corrections

2022년 11월 23일

노트

(Chart 5. Logarithmic data and pattern based on three extreme cycles)

Visualization based on logarithmic data
Logarithmic support outlines wedges minima.
There are 3 full cycles on the chart, which include a bearish wedge - a bullish set-up, which the data shows is working perfectly

The last two full cycles form a drop of about 85%, after which the wedge reaches the bottom, price reverses and exits the wedge up
The very first cycle formed a pullback based on the logarithmic data of about 82%.

What's happening now?
1) The wedge is forming.
2) volatility is declining
3) Price is in the correction phase at 77%

It's worth making an assumption. Based on the data of three extreme cycles: we can assume that the price may fall another 5-8% to the approximate mark of $10000, after which bitcoin may go into the phase of consolidation, which will outline the bottom

2022년 11월 25일

노트

(Chart 6. Monthly timeframe. Technical analysis)

Stochastic is at its bottom and crossing lines are forming))

Monthly chart, Stochastic is on its bottom, at the same time stochastic moving lines are forming a crossover
Price is renewing its two year lows and heading towards 13880

Glassnode reports cumulative balance on centralized exchanges down to a 4-year low.
Santiment: miners continue to sell BTC. Their cumulative balance fell to an 11-month low.