FibMarketWatch 의 BITFINEX:BCHUSD 용 BCH-Cycle Wave 3-The Great Wave-Part 1

BITFINEX:BCHUSDhas completed Cycle Wave 2 and is beginning Cycle Wave 3 now!

Wow, finally the correction is over! I have been tracking the Waves since the all-time high in December 2017. It has been pretty exhausting and was a LONG process. The good news is that we will rally from here till at least July 2019. Thanks for all the questions and for supporting the idea.

Third waves are wonders to behold! Prices will typically take off in a powerful fashion, and the more you delay joining in the direction of the move, the farther it will go away. Stop loss orders will all get executed and push the prices more and more. Even fundamental news will get interpreted to suit the move (i.e. even if the news was bad, the market will somehow interpret it to mean the worst is over!) During an uptrend, any trader who tries to pick a top and sell for a brief correction will soon find himself stopped out.

Now, the important part...we need to profit from the sub-waves while on the way up to the terminal of Cycle Wave 3. So, this idea will track the sub-waves to find profitable trading opportunities.

Analysis Method: Fibonacci + Wave Theory

Cycle Wave 3 Target: $6,743.30+
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(1yr+)

Primary Wave 3 Target: $708-$1432
Fib Ext. 1 & 2 = 1.618
(30-90 days)

Review:

Last Idea: BCH - Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal Apex

Cycle Wave Sequence
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days

Cycle Correction Sequence
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)

Cycle Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

Cycle Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

Fibonacci Time Extension: Cycle Wave 1

Primary Wave Sequence

Primary Wave
Wave 1 = 10.01%
Wave 2 = -9.00%
Wave 3 = 24.98%
Wave 4 = -16.67%
Wave 5 = 39.27%

Primary Correction Sequence
A = -28.62%
B = +12.87%
C = -14.83%

Primary Wave Fib Time

Primary Wave Fib Extension:

Primary Wave Fib Spirals:

The Failed Wave

I thought that the correction was over and a new wave sequence was forming but instead I miss counted the ABC Correction as a Flat (3-3-5) instead of a ZigZag (5-3-5) Correction. This is why my handle is The HUMBLE Watcher. Yes, I can miss count Waves but generally I'm very close to the exact wave count.

Review:

Cycle Wave 1 & 2

Monthly:

Weekly:

Daily:

Currently, we are finishing a ABC Correction. Waves A and B are complete and Wave C is underway. Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to complete.

This idea series is to track the 3rd Cycle Wave and profit from the sub-waves.

Will update.

-AB

코멘트:

Lower Degree Wave 1 Retrace was approx. 23.6%.

Lower Degree Wave 1 Extended

= Higher Degree Extend

코멘트:

Added: Fib Time Ext. on Higher and Lower Wave 1

코멘트:

Massive move incoming...

코멘트:

Wave C needs 5 Sub-Waves to be complete

코멘트:

Think I count 5 Sub-Waves...

코멘트:

Wave C Complete.

코멘트:

Now we should see a sharp move higher...

코멘트:

Spirals can be a great timing and target mechanism...

코멘트:

Above: The Complete ABC correction

코멘트:

Check the indicators for confirmation...

코멘트:

FYI: Spirals are distorted since indicators are shown

코멘트:

Favorite MACD setting: 21, 33, 18

Shows less false signals than 12, 26, 9

코멘트:

Indicators all look good.

Ultimate Oscillator momentum trending higher

EMA Wave indicating a Positive Convergence

MACD is about to crossover

Elder Force shows a Divergence

코멘트:

Wave C = Wave 1

코멘트:

Russian Nesting Doll Effect

If you do not know what Russian Nesting Dolls are please Google "Russian Nesting Dolls".

Otherwise you will have no idea what I am talking about...

코멘트:

Above: Wave C = Wave 1

코멘트:

Purple = Wave 1 Sequence
Yellow = Wave C Sequence

코멘트:

The only Wave Sequence that is allowed to violate Elliot's Wave Rules

코멘트:

Wave 3 violated Wave 1 Price Area

코멘트:

Excuse me: Wave 4 violated Wave 1 Price Area

코멘트:

Better View of Sequence

코멘트:

Sub Wave Count: ABC Correction

코멘트:

Sub-Wave Count for Primary Wave

코멘트:

Added:
Fib Ext. = Wave 1 (0) - Wave 1 (T) - Wave C = Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 1 (T) - Sub-Wave 2 (T) = Sub-Wave 3 Levels
Fib Ext. = Sub-Wave 1 (0) - Sub-Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 4 (T) = Sub-Wave 5 Levels
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (1-0) = Target Wave 3
Fib Spiral = Wave 1 (T) - Wave C (T) = Timeline Wave 3 to begin

코멘트:

Changed Spiral Color
Added Time Range

코멘트:

(0) = Point Zero or Beginning of Wave/Sub-Wave
(T) = Terminal Wave Point or End of Wave/Sub-Wave
(x) = Sub-Wave (1,2,3,4,5)

코멘트:

After C Wave Finished the price-action has done a sets of 5-3-5.

Complex Correction.

코멘트:

We are right at the APEX!

코멘트:

Broke the Leading Diagonal...

코멘트:

Once that dam (Leading Diagonal) is broken the price-Action should be racing higher...

코멘트:

Added Fib Extension: S1 & S2 = S3 Key Levels

코멘트:

Vindication

코멘트:

Analysis Proven.

Confirmed Correction is OVER!

코멘트:

Yup...

Lovin it.

This will take awhile to cool down...

코멘트:

ZigZag Correction Anticipated

코멘트:

If Wave A comes down in 5 Sub-Waves

코멘트:

Wave C could be a good trade...

코멘트:

Wave C happening now...

Fib Ext. Wave A & Wave B = Wave C Levels

코멘트:

$507-$520. Possible Trade Level.

코멘트:

Wave 3 is extending

코멘트:

Wave 3 significantly passed 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Level from Wave 1 & 2.

코멘트:

Note: Sub-Wave 3 extended

코멘트:

ZigZag Correction

코멘트:

Higher Wave

코멘트:

Wave Sequence so far...

코멘트:

Fib Spiral Theory -

Wave 1 Spiral = Wave 3 Terminal = Check

코멘트:

Finding levels where the 5th Wave/Higher 1st Degree could end.

코멘트:

$556 looks interesting
$520 looks interesting

코멘트:

This could be a Wave Sequence.

Wave 1 - 5.85%
Wave 3 -12.40%
Wave 5 - 6.42%

Or

Wave 5 could trend near equality to Wave 3

코멘트:

I’m more inclinded to Wave 5 extending...

코멘트:

Current Sub-Wave Count

코멘트:

Might have a ZigZag Correction here...

코멘트:

Sold @ 483.03

코멘트:

STOP Hit 484.99

코멘트:

If the 5th Wave did not extend...the correction would have been at the $484 level.

Now, $520-$566 are the next levels to watch for...

코멘트:

Added Fib Spiral: Wave 4

코멘트:

1.618 Breached

Still extending

코멘트:

Still going...

코멘트:

$590 is the next level...

코멘트:

Fib Ext: 0-3-4 = 5th Key Levels

Passing 1.618

코멘트:

Lower Extension Trigger Added

코멘트:

Lower=Blue
Higher=Green

코멘트:

Correction looks to be inbound...

코멘트:

Yellow box = Wave Sequence

코멘트:

Sell: $546.00
Buy: $480.00

Watch for Extensions

코멘트:

Yellow Box Sequence:

1 - 6.4%
2 - 16.4%
3 - 6.5%

코멘트:

$590 next stop

코멘트:

I think we MAY have hit exhaustion with the First Wave Sequence.

코멘트:

Stopped out again...

Passed Extension line

코멘트:

Ignore Stop Sell...forgot to remove

코멘트:

$613-$671 Levels to watch.

코멘트:

BCH is looking to take off again...

코멘트:

Fib Spiral Target: $720

코멘트:

Not going to put on another trade until 100% certain we are at the Terminal 5th/Higher 1st.

I suspect that will be around $720.

코멘트:

Correction Now:

코멘트:

Target $508 - $498

코멘트:

Added:
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Wave A (T)
Fib Spiral : Wave 3 (T) - Sub-Wave 3 (T)
Regression Trend: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 3 (T)
Channel Line: Wave 1 (0) to Wave 2 (T)
Wave 1 = 15.72%
Wave 3 = 30.41%

Wave C = -11.44% Estimate

코멘트:

Watch $530 level...

If $530 Fails...watch $480-$485

코멘트:

STOP-BUY triggered $547

코멘트:

4.52% Gain

코멘트:

STOP-SELL $550

코멘트:

Still Sold @ $550

Stop-Limit Buy @ $475

코멘트:

1st Wave Sequence Complete
2nd Wave Correction Now...

코멘트:

The most common retrace for Wave 2 is Fibonacci Level .618.

코멘트:

Wave 1 only retraced .382

STOP-BUY triggered $553.

코멘트:

590 Key Level I have been talking about for awhile...

코멘트:

STOP-BUY turns into STOP-SELL but a little higher to cover exchange fees...

코멘트:

Looks like a Wave Sequence to me...

코멘트:

Good Trade opportunity possible...

코멘트:

Looking to test $566...

코멘트:

Always watch for extensions and have a STOP-BUY on ALWAYS! If you are trading the Waves!

코멘트:

Let's find the 5th Extension levels...

코멘트:

Above: Key 5th Levels

코멘트:

Let's see if a Wave will trend near equality...

코멘트:

Wave 1 & 5 are currently trending toward equality...

코멘트:

It's either Correction or Snap higher...

코멘트:

Inclined to correction...

코멘트:

Added Fib Time Extension to Correction Sub-Wave Sequence
Added Fib Time Extension to Sub-Wave Sequence

코멘트:

Ignore STOP.
Chart is just price-action update.

코멘트:

Still extending...

코멘트:

$720 area still looks to be a Terminal point.

코멘트:

Correction Now.

Unsure if it is the Higher Degree Correction

코멘트:

Stop Sell Triggered @ 620

코멘트:

The way it sold off makes me think it is the higher degree

코멘트:

Review

코멘트:

$660 next level...

코멘트:

STOP SELL triggered @ 628.90

코멘트:

Having trouble here with the Fibonacci Level .5...
Fib Ext. (0-3-4)

코멘트:

604 is Sub-Wave 1 Terminal for the 5th Wave Sequence

코멘트:

If 598 fails look to the lower terminal sub-waves

563 Sub-Wave Terminal

코멘트:

Sub-Wave Sequence held...

STOP-BUY triggered @ 613

코멘트:

Watch 624 and 630...

코멘트:

Wave A complete

코멘트:

620 is failing...

코멘트:

Higher Degree Correction?

코멘트:

The main trade we have been waiting for?

코멘트:

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ 556

코멘트:

Excuse above.

코멘트:

Watch the Blue Levels for the retracement...

코멘트:

Green Spiral is Wave 2 Retrace Target

코멘트:

Wave 1 & 5 trended to equality.

코멘트:

Primary Wave Sequence

코멘트:

Retrace to $475-$480 likely

코멘트:

Fib Time Ext. Sub-Wave 1 = Time Frame of Higher Wave

코멘트:

STOP-LIMIT BUY @ $480

코멘트:

Buy Zone: $488-$476-$459

코멘트:

Lowered Buy to @ $465.

This will be a fast move...

코멘트:

Primary Wave Sequence Hit 1.236 Level of Fib Extension of higher Wave 1 & 2

코멘트:

Staying course to buy @ $465.

Bottom is probably $455-$465.

코멘트:

Action update: Stay the course

코멘트:

Quick Drop Imminent...

코멘트:

Time Estimate to Begin Primary Wave 3

코멘트:

Buy still @ $465

코멘트:

Action update:

코멘트:

Action update:

코멘트:

Action update:

코멘트:

Action update:

Watch $480 level...

Buy still @ 465

코멘트:

Trade Executed @ 465.00

코멘트:

Great Trade: Sold @ $617 / Bought @ $465 = +152

코멘트:

Coinbase's bottom was exactly $465.00

코멘트:

Correction ending soon...

코멘트:

Part 1 is coming to an end...

New idea coming shortly...

코멘트:

Primary Wave 3 inbound with HIGH expectations!

코멘트:

Above: Action update.

Let's Find Primary Wave 3 Levels...

코멘트:

Primary Wave 3 Target: $841-$697

코멘트:

MASSIVE SQUEEZE...

SPIKE!

코멘트:

Reminder: Wave 1's are usually always sloppy....

Spike Anticipated.

코멘트:

Added STOP...be careful

코멘트:

The third wave usually begins by the price racing upwards...

코멘트:

Wave is holding...

코멘트:

Primary Wave 2 Retraced 100% of Primary Wave 1 = Normal

코멘트:

all good so far...

코멘트:

Back to 520...

Possible trade maybe...

코멘트:

BCH Fork

Don’t miss it...

코멘트:

Ultimate Oscillator showing divergence...good sign.

코멘트:

Maybe the unanticipated extra drop was due from money flowing out the exchanges into cold wallets for the fork

코멘트:

Fork is probably impacting the Wave count...

Do not anticipate this price range to last long....

코멘트:

Think we have a complex correction...

코멘트:

Possible Double ZigZag

코멘트:

Need to hold Green Spiral...

Spike up anticipated.

Complex Corrections imply strong moves ahead...

코멘트:

Above: Possible Trade Opportunity between $775-$693

코멘트:

Crypto markets about to get crazy...

코멘트:

Elder Force and MACD

Note the Elder Force divergence.

코멘트:

Weekly: Ultimate Oscillator and OBV

코멘트:

Above: Added Fib Time

코멘트:

Above: BCH ABC & BCH SV / BTC

BCH ABC looks like the Winner.

코멘트:

BCH ABC is just chugging along...building stability

코멘트:

I suspect that gap that was created because of the fork will be closed when trading opens...

코멘트:

Therefore, the BCH hash war will not be decided in 1 or 2 days, but over many days and possibly weeks by on-going miner votes with sustained Proof of Work. Until a dominant chain emerges, cryptocurrency exchanges, wallet and service providers are advised to remain neutral, and to run a Bitcoin SV node to be prepared for the best interests of users.

코멘트:

Watch the battle play out here:

코멘트:

BCHSV is trying to breakout

코멘트:

Update on SV:

코멘트:

Update on ABC:

코멘트:

Almost looks like both are going to survive for now...

I favor SV chart

코멘트:

ABC is breaking down...

코멘트:

During this test, SVPool and BMG Group successfully generated five full 32MB blocks—proof “that there are mining systems on the BCH network today that are ready to mine blocks larger than 32MB,” according to the pre-stress test report. SVPool, a personal initiative of Dr. Craig Wright, and nChain’s BMG Group run Bitcoin SV (Satoshi Vision), the full node implementation designed to fulfill the vision set out by Satoshi Nakamoto’s original Bitcoin white paper.

코멘트:

Meanwhile, mining pools that run Bitcoin ABC achieved much smaller blocks during the pre-test: ViaBTC mined a single 8MB block, while most other blocks mined using Bitcoin ABC were at most 1-2MB during the pre-test.

코멘트:

Neck and Neck here...

코멘트:

ABC stalling?

SV gaining?

코멘트:

Watching history here...

Blockchain will disrupt almost every sector...

You are already seeing it impacting the banking sector...

In the future services will be paid for in tokens...

코멘트:

Stabilizing?

코멘트:

SV is producing substantially larger blocks.

코멘트:

SV is producing 32MB

ABC is producing 4MB

코멘트:

Need to produce large blocks for micropayments

코멘트:

Very Bullish Formation here for ABC!

코멘트:

Sub-Wave 1 has completed and Sub-Wave 2 of the Higher Degree 3rd Wave is finishing now...

코멘트:

Target $292...

코멘트:

Added SV

코멘트:

Question is can they both survive or does one have to kill the other?

코멘트:

Wave 1 - Normal

Wave 3 - Breached 1.681 could extend

코멘트:

If Wave 1 & 3 are Normal look for the 5th to extend.

코멘트:

SV & ABC seem to have stabilized for now and have convereged.

코멘트:

Target of 292 almost hit...

코멘트:

SV could COULD have a massive move here shortly...

Complex Correction...

코멘트:

ABC vs. SV update:

코멘트:

ABC Update:

Wave 3 DID extend...

코멘트:

1.681 breached of S1 & S2

코멘트:

BCH = ABC + SV

$440ish...

Getting back to where we were before the fork...

코멘트:

I can’t tell you which chain will survive...I would need a computer science degree for that but can tell you that this will not be decided in days...

코멘트:

SV update: Micro-Wave Forming?

코멘트:

Target $140

코멘트:

Indicators look good.

코멘트:

SV is still producing blocks far superior than ABC...

Proof of Work lead by ABC still declining

Block Size:

POW:

코멘트:

Nodes (Log) :

코멘트:

Correct Block Size Screenshot:

코멘트:

It's interesting too that SV controlled almost 70% of Hash power pre-split...

Another good question is, is ABC (Group) renting hash power and how long can they rent hash power for days, weeks, months?

코멘트:

Looks like we have a HASH WAR

코멘트:

Transactions on ABC:

Transactions on SV:

코멘트:

HASH:

코멘트: