FibMarketWatch 의 BITFINEX:BCHUSD 에 대한 BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex

$BITFINEX:BCHUSD is forming the apex of the leading diagnoal.

This Idea is to track the price-action coming out of the the leading diagonal.

For Further Analysis see related idea.

Review:
BITFINEX:BCHUSD 7.62% has been in a bear market since reaching an all-time high in December 2017 (273 days ago).

1. Primary Wave Sequence (Green)
-Wave 1: +347.02%
-Wave 3: +899.29%
-Wave 5: +382.22%
- 133 Days
2. Correction Sequence (Yellow)
-A Wave: 5 Waves (Pink) (-84.87%)
-B Wave: 3 Waves (+197.89%)
-C Wave: 5 Waves (Orange) (-77.95%)
-Fib. Extension (5-A-B)

3. Fibonacci Extension: Wave 1 & Wave 2

4. Wave Sequence Price Increase: 2,290.84%
- $215.00/$4,104.30
- 133 Days

5. Wave 2 Price Decrease= 90.06%
- $4,104.30/$407.90
- 273 Days

6. Fibonacci Time Extension: Wave 1/Wave 5 (Yellow)

The Beginning:

Idea: BCH-BREAKOUT-Imminent

The Correction ended at $426.40 with a sharp reflex followed by a Micro-Wave sequence.

The Micro-Wave was a lower degree Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 3rd Wave extended over 700% of Wave 1 & Wave 2.

The 4th Wave Correction resulted in what Elliot called a 'diagonal triangle'.

There are two main types of diagonal triangles. One is where the two boundaries of the triangle converge and the other where they diverge. The second type is known as Expanding Diagonal Triangles. Irrespective of whether they are converging or expanding diagonal triangles, if they occur in the first wave position, where they are known as ‘leading diagonal triangle’, the internal waves are made up of 5-3-5-3-5 sub waves. If they occur in the fifth wave position, they are known as ‘ending diagonal triangles’ and the internal waves are made up of 3-3-3-3-3 sub waves. For example, in an uptrend, the ending point of the fourth wave diagonal triangle will be near or even above the top of the third wave. Then all of a sudden, when the ‘e’ wave of the triangle is finished, price will break even higher and the fifth wave will race upwards.

The corrective sequence occurred in the Wave A position making it a leading diagonal .
When it occurs in Wave A position, it becomes a leading diagonal triangle, and when it occurs at the Wave C position, it is an ending diagonal triangle.

A diagonal triangle differs from a regular (horizontal) triangle in that it slopes in the direction of the trend. So when the eventual break out happens, the next move will be in the opposite direction.

The third wave traveled a considerable distance in a short space of time, and the diagonal triangle itself appeared sloping in the direction of the major trend which hints that the 5th Wave will extend.

The internal waves of the correction were 5-3-5.

The correction was also complex by having 2 correction sequences of ABCDE.

Instead of breaking higher the move broke down and consolidated further and formed a larger leading diagonal.

The next wave sequence is estimated to last 259 days till July 1st, 2019.

Cheers!

-AB

노트

Near-Term Target: $800-$730 (30-90 days)
Long-Term Target: $2800 (180 days)

노트

S5 Target (Yellow)

노트

Main Question that comes to my mind is do we breakout of the Leading Diagonal Now...

Or Consolidate further into the Apex

노트

High Probablity of Breaking out...

Elliot Rule...

Wave 3 CANNOT be the Shortest Wave...

노트

TRADE:

BUY: $475
SELL: $530
BUY: $475

노트

Trade Targets are NOT exact. The Trade is for Wave B & C.

Wave B should come very close to Terminal Wave 3. Wave C should bottom at Terminal Wave B. I’m

노트

Wave A Terminal

노트

Wave B is Always 3 sub-waves

노트

Here comes the trade...

노트

Always be on alert for Extensions...

노트

Correction was not a flat...

Internals of Waves are extremely important...

ZigZag Correction...

Do NOT Sell!

노트

Time to break the Leading Triangle?

노트

5 tiny sub-waves in Wave C?

노트

New Trade: Sell at Wave 5 Terminal

노트

Check this out...

Next Move looks nuts...

노트

Next 36 hours the wave sequence will be complete.

노트

Above: Extending S1

노트

Should beginning the move momentarily...

노트

Price-Action Update.

노트

Excuse above.

Below:

Leading Diagonal

노트

Smaller leading diagonal within larger leading diagonal

노트

Almost at the pinnacle of the leading diagonal

노트

Here is a better view.

Larger Leading Diagonal = Green

Smaller Leading Diagonal = Blue

노트

Time for Take-off?

노트

Price-Action update:

노트

3rd sub-wave of the higher degree 3rd should be starting now.

노트

Excuse Above...

노트

Above: Fib Spiral intersect from Cycle Wave A and B

노트

Marks the end of Cycle Wave Correction

노트

Or aka Wave C

노트

STOP

노트

Price-Action Update:

노트

We are beginning Sub-Wave 3 of a higher degree 3rd Wave.

A Fibonacci Spiral gap is opening allowing BCH to move higher (marked by the vertical line).

노트

Fib Time = 3rd Wave Sequence (Approx. 9 days)

노트

Correction:
2 days for Lower Degree
9 days for Higher Degree

노트

Lower Degree - Teal
Higher Degree - Green

노트

Higher Degree:
Wave 3 Target - $606-$650
Wave 5 Target - $735-$800

노트

Key Levels:

노트

Above: Nearing the Apex.

노트

Breakout Imminent!

노트

Above: Complex Correction: FLAT + ZIGZAG

노트

Selling should be over or getting close...

노트

Live updates to make sure I am right about this move

노트

Target Hit.

노트

A few more ticks to go...

노트

$436 is next target

노트

Gap opening...

노트

Price-Action looks good.

Analysis Stands.

Stay the course.

노트

Wave 5 is looking to extend

노트

Scenario 1 : 5th Wave Extends
Scenario 2 : Correction

STOP can be placed firmly at $430.49 (Coinbase)

노트

Scenario 2 occurred, no impact on analysis.

Cheers!

-AB

노트

Correction: ZigZag instead of Flat

노트

Reminder: Wave 1 can be sloppy...

노트

Failed Wave

Stop Triggered

노트

Higher Degree Wave did not fail. The image where I noted where my analysis would failed if the $422 level was crossed.

노트

Excuse typing errors please on my phone.

노트

Here is the image with the stops.

노트

Analysis still stands.

Stay the course.

노트

Wouldn't be surprised at all if BCH just shoots upwards.

노트

Above: Higher Degree Wave

노트

Above: Firm Stop $424.99 (Coinbase) & Retrace levels

노트

Wave 1 usually extends if it only retraces .236 or .382

노트

Price-Action is showing a leading Diagonal

노트

The only formation that can violate Elliot's Wave laws.

Wave 2 can never exceed the start of Wave 1
Wave 4 cannot overlap the price area of Wave 1
Wave 3 Cannot be the shortest impulse Wave

노트

Breakout should be imminent...

노트

Lower Degree Wave 5 Extended
Higher Degree Wave 5 SHOULD Extend

노트

Lower Degree Wave 1 & 2 near completion

노트

I will be updating throughout the day...

노트

Wave 3 Target hit.

노트

Wave 3 Extedning

노트

Wave 3 Extension imminent.

노트

It’s amazing, every time BCH tries to rally a seller(s) come in to block. What the...

노트

Note to Seller(s): You Will Not Win!!!!

노트

Sellers can only surpress price down for so long...it is NOT definite.

노트

Extension Failed.

노트

Wave 4 should terminate near Wave 1 terminal.

노트

Still expecting an Extended 5th Wave

노트

1HR View:

노트

6HR View:

노트

Price-Action looking very strong...

Is it time for the Big Move?

노트

Wave 5 is extending...

노트

Added another spiral for Timing purposes.

노트

Fib Spiral 1: Wave 3 - Wave 4 = Target for Wave 5

Fib Spiral 2: Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 1) - Wave 4 = Timeline for Wave 5 (Sub-Wave 3) to begin

노트

Approx. 4 hours till next leg higher.

노트

Fib Spirals played out exactly...

노트

The main difference between Wave 3 extensions and Wave 5 extensions is that Wave 5 extensions take longer to complete.

노트

Next Target- Yellow box

노트

Hoping this Sequence will break us out of the leading diagonal!

노트

Reminder: This is Higher Degree Wave 3 beginning

노트

Higher Degree Wave 1 & 2 (Yellow)

노트

Elliot Rule: Wave 3 CANNOT be the shortest wave!

노트

Higher wave near-term targets are Fib Extension level 1 & 1.618

노트

Reminder: No way to guarantee where extensions end.

노트

40,000 Feet View (Always Important)

노트

Please give me a like if you find this analysis to be useful!

노트

The BIG move imminent...

노트

Review:

1. Higher Degree Wave 3 Beginning
2. Lower Degree Wave
- Wave 1 - Leading Diagonal (Normal)
- Wave 3 - Passed 1.618 but failed to extend
- Wave 5 - EXTENDING

노트

Plan to open a new idea as soon as we break this leading diagonal

노트

Bare Minimum Wave 3 has to reach $606.

노트

Micro-Wave Sequence complete.

Sell and buy back at Wave 1 Terminal.

노트

Waves are like Russian Nesting Dolls

노트

Trade opportunity!

If you do not want to trade the correction, place a firm stop just under the beginning of Wave 1

노트

Reminder: Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1. The most common retrace is between Sub-Wave 1 Terminal and Sub-Wave 2 Terminal. I have represented this with the Red Fib Spirals.

노트

Wave 2 Corrections are usually in the ZigZag Formation (5-3-5).

노트

-1HR View
-Added Ultimate Oscillator: Shows negative divergence

노트

This is where you would sell...

Watch out for the extensions...

노트

Price-Action Broke 1.236 Level

Watch 1.382 and 1.618 Next...

Looks like the 5th Wave Extension is not over.

Are the shorts starting to cover?

노트

Fib Spiral Intersections are Key.

Green Circle shows two Fib Spirals intersecting...

This is how I read Fib Spirals...

노트

Looks like Major Rally is Straight Ahead...

노트

$562 level is still pointing out to me...

노트

Looks like one more move down to between $447 & $444 then get ready for the next leg higher which should be to at least $520.

노트

Little Trade: Sell Here buy back $445

노트

Trade Worked Perfect...

Now, Let's go higher!

노트

Above: S1 & S2

노트

Fib Extension of S1 & S2

-Added Stop

노트

Counting Waves is an Art not exact science...

노트

ZigZag Correction should be ending now...

노트

Above: Extending Higher Degree Wave 1

Not HIGHEST DEGREE (Still in larger WAVE 3)

노트

STOP Added

노트

Price-Action Update and Fib Spirals added to help track/predict Wave Sequence

노트

1HR View + Next Leg Higher Timeline

노트

Daily View:

노트

Here is Wave 2 Bottom.

Now we are going higher...

노트

Above: Sub-Wave Sequence

노트

Above:

Added Extension Trigger
Added Wave Sequence

노트

5th Wave was Normal

노트

Correction should be ending momentarily...

노트

Correction was FLAT (3-3-5)

노트

Prepare for the ‘Big’ move...

These levels will likely not be seen again...

Buy what you can here.

노트

Will update shortly.

노트

Wave 1 IS extending!

노트

Price-Action update

Added Spiral

Forming Leading Diagonal

노트

Wave 1 extended then pulled back...

Stop Triggered.

Opportunity to pick up more BCH.

Analysis still stands.

노트

Wave 2 came down in a 3 wave sequence which implies a Flat Correction

노트

Wave 2 Correction Complete

노트

6HR View
Added Fib Extension (1&2)

노트

Wave C needs to complete 5 Sub-Waves in order to be complete.

노트

Hypothetical Price-Action

노트

Sub-Wave 4 & 5 will become sub-wave 1 & 2

노트

Price-Action Update:

노트

Price-action update: We have completed 5 Sub-Waves

노트

Added Fib. Extension (S1 & S2)

노트

Breakout imminent

노트

Next Move should be large...

Wave 3 beginning now.

노트

Expect Wave 5 to Extend.

노트

Updated STOP

노트

1HR View

노트

Above: Fib Time of Wave 1

노트

It's time to break the Leading Diagonal we have been in...

노트

Excuse above...

노트

Hypothetical Price-Action

노트

Looks like this is it...

Back to $500's

노트

Price Action update:

노트

10 mins or so left...

노트

Price Action Update:

노트

In the 'Gap'

Let's see which way it goes...

노트

Looks like we are going to have a correction sequence

노트

Wave A bottomed in 5 Sub-Waves which tells us its a ZigZag correction

노트

Wave B usually travels back up to the .618 level of Wave A.

노트

Wave C is always 5 sub-waves and bottoms between the 1 & 1.618 fib. Extension level from waves A & B

노트

Hypothetical Action

노트

Correction is not a ZigZag but a FLAT

노트

Action Update:

노트

#Slowwalker

노트

Action update:

노트

Micro-Wave

Wave 1 is Normal
Wave 3 extended
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree 3 extension

노트

Correction should ending soon

노트

Look for correction to end near 1.382/1.618

노트

Action update:

노트

This wave (3) should extend

노트

Fib extension 1 & 2

노트

Wave 3 should pass 1.618 or $442

노트

Price Action update:

노트

Notice all The Fib Spiral Intesections

노트

Wave is tends to be a sloppy formation

노트

Action update:

노트

Above:

Yellow Box: Failed Wave

Now: beginning a new micro-wave formation

*please excuse typing while on my phone.

Stay the course!

노트

Above:

Teal: Primary Wave - Sub-Wave Sequence
Red: ABC Correction
Orange: Primary Wave 1 & 2

노트

Above: Hypothetical Action

노트

We have to be getting close...

노트

Note the Red Spiral Intersection

노트

Getting really close to breaking out...

노트

Tiny Sub Wave 3 beginning

노트

S1 & S3 we’re near equality

Expect 5th Wave to extend

노트

Wave 5 broke .618 from Fib Extension 0-3-4 which implies it’s extending. Also, it broke the channel line from Terminal wave 1 and Terminal wave 3

노트

We are reaching the end of the leading diagonal...

The next move high should begin at any moment...

Micro-Wave Sequence & ABC Correction ending now..

노트

Correction close to ending

노트

Price should not go below S1(0)

노트

Take emotion out and trust the analysis

노트

Reminder: Its extremely difficult to count 1-3 minute wave sequences. Counting waves is more of an Art than Science. Waves can change and waves can fail. If I do see a change in the formation I will update the idea asap. For example, if I originally said it’s a ZigZag Correction but it’s actually a Flat correction I will update the idea to notify the change in the price-action.

Just wanted to let this be known and it is the main reason why I provide so many price-action updates.

Stay the course...we are getting close to the finish line!

노트

S1(0) held and just quickly looking at the action it looks like we have a Micro-Wave formation.

노트

You could place a STOP near S1(0)

노트

My stop is at $424.89

노트

Perfect Example of a Sloppy Wave 1 Formation...

The less volume the sloppier the wave formations of any given security.

노트

Expecting BCH to takeoff anytime...

노트

Here ya go...

노트

Analysis is about to be proven correct...

노트

Ye o little faith...

노트

Last chance to load up on BCH!

노트

If I don’t post a comment with a chart update I’m just showing the price-action and making sure it is still ‘following’ or ‘riding’ a spiral.

Nothing more and nothing less...

I would notify with comment if there was a change in the analysis.

노트

Looking good...

Watch 1.618 Level

노트

$476.90

노트

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Wave 1 & 2

노트

Review

노트

Add Fib Time and Fib Extension to Higher Degree Primary Wave

노트

Add Fib Extension to Sub-Micro Wave 1 & 2

노트

See the Leading Diagonal?

노트

Beautiful Chart Above...

Fibonacci and Wave Theory

노트

Wave Internals (Sub-Waves) are Key.

노트

Time Estimate for Sub-Wave 3 to begin. I expect we consolidate side ways for a few more hours.

노트

Add Fib Spirals to Sub-Waves

Added Scenarios

노트

Looks like the Green Arrow Scenario is going to play out.

노트

Sub-Wave Sequence Complete

노트

Sub-Wave decided to further retrace.

No change in analysis.

노트

Pretty good time estimate.

노트

Ignore stop above.

노트

Sub-Wave 3 was Normal

노트

Who dumped 5,000 BCH?

Stench of Manipulation...

노트

Higher Degreee has not completely failed...

노트

IF we go below 407.65, analysis will fail...

노트

Wave 2 CANNOT go below the price area of Wave 1.

노트

Original Analysis

노트

If Wave Theory is correct we should be ok...

노트

Just double checked the Wave counts.

노트

Fib Time 5 marks the end of a Wave Sequence (1-5 Waves + ABC Correction).

노트

Found the Error...

I messed up the ABC Correction...

Corrected below:

노트

ZigZag (5-3-5) instead of Flat (3-3-5)

노트

Analysis Stands

노트

I think it is safe to say we are at the Apex.

노트

Above: Log Format

노트

It should be getting close to time to tell whether this idea will be proven correct or fail.

노트

BCH/BTC HAS BOTTOMED! Been over the analysis many times....we can only go higher...

노트

Corrected the Wave Count...

Wave 1 Extended
Wave 3 Normal
Wave 5 Normal

Expect higher degree Wave 1 To extend...

노트

For those interested in my Fib Theory...

Here is a test of it...

노트

Wave 3 of this Sequence will hit $440 if the theory stands...

노트

BCH/BTC will sooner or later be like a rocket launch

노트

Should be going higher in approx. 9 mins...

노트

Spiral Targets

Maybe Tradable

노트

Orange Spiral is Terminal Wave 3 (Wave 1 Terminal to Wave 1 Beginning)

노트

2.618 is a level that keeps appearing in my analysis...

Likely level for Terminal Wave 3

노트

Pink Sequence - Hypothetical Action

노트

Bigger picture...

노트

Do or die time!

노트

Will this analysis fail or be right...

Just tell me!

노트

Fib Spiral Theory Test

노트

Just to know that I'm not placing the Fib Spiral randomly. Above is the Wave count as I see it.

노트

Better view of wave sequence

노트

Wave 3 Terminal: $440-438

노트

Higher Degree Wave 2 completely finished.

Higher Degree Wave 3 is beginning...

노트

Reminder:

Highest Wave:

노트

Higher Degree Target:$6500

노트

Now the goal is to get rich along the way and trade the Sub-Waves to Higher Degree 3rd Terminal then Sell into the 4th Wave.

노트

Heavy hitters on deck

노트

Wait for it...

Batters on deck...

노트

Coinbase chart

노트

Heavy Hitters...

The Rush...

Climax...

Everyone thought it was going lower...

노트

New idea coming soon...

노트

Strong MACD crossover

노트

Breakout imminent...

노트

Wall Street money incoming...

노트

Wave 3 was Normal.

Expect extended 5th.

노트

Added Fib Extension 0-3-4

1.618 Target

노트

Wave Failed....

Don't Panic...

노트

This will start a Wave Sequence

노트

Upside Down ABC Correction

노트

Only used 'ABC' because there is no other '123' Sequence

Correction: 3-3-5

노트

Ahh so close....

Hurry up BCH!

노트

I spoke a little soon when I said BCH Cycle Wave 2 was completely finished...

It's ALMOST!

Need this Last C Wave which will turn into a Wave Sequence.

노트

Excuse me...

Corrected Chart:

노트

This C Wave will make or break the analysis.

노트

99.99% Positive my analysis is correct...

노트

Damn, it feels good to be right...

노트

New idea will be finished soon...

1 hour or so...

노트

노트

New Idea Above!

노트

Correct Link:

BCH-Fibonacci/Wave Analysis-Leading Diagonal-Apex

관련 발행물

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

면책사항

관련 발행물

BCH-FINALLY-Primary 5th (Extension)-Update

면책사항