Adaptive Autonomous Recursive Moving AverageIntroduction
Using conditions in filters is a way to make them adapt to those, i already used this methodology in one of my proposed indicators ARMA which gave a really promising adaptive filter, ARMA tried to have a flat response when dealing with ranging market while following the price when the market where trending or exhibiting volatile movements, the filter was terribly simple which is one of its plus points but its down points where clearly affecting its performance thus making it almost impractical.
Today i propose a new filter A2ARMA which aim to correct all the bad behaviours of ARMA while having a good performance on various markets thanks to the added adaptivity.
Fixes And Changes
ARMA was dealing with terribles over/under-shoots which affected its performance, adding a zero-lag option made the thing even worse, in order to fix those mistakes i first cleaned the code, then i removed the offset for src in d , this choice is optional but the filter is sometimes more accurate this way.
The major change is the use of an adaptive moving average instead of the triangular moving average that smoothed the output, this adaptive moving average is calculated using exponential averaging while using the efficiency ratio as smoothing variable, this choice surprisingly removed the majority of overshoots while adding more adaptivity to the filter.
The Indicator
The Indicator work the same way as ARMA, not reacting during flat market periods while following the price when this one is volatile or trending. length control the smoothing amount while gamma determine how the filter is affected during flat market periods, gamma = 0 is just a double smoothed adaptive moving average, higher values of gamma will filter flat markets with a certain degree.
On Intel Corp with gamma = 0, i want to filter the flat period starting at July 10, gamma = 3 will certainly help us on this task.
Hooray, the problem appear to be solved ! Lower values of gamma also produce desirable effect as shown below :
gamma = 2
So far so good, but gamma or length might have different optimal values depending on the market, also problems still exists as shown here :
Seagate is tricky, gamma at 2.4 might help
The relationship between length and gamma is somewhat complicated.
On Different Markets
While some filters will process market price the same way no matter the market they are affected, A2ARMA will change drastically depending of the market.
On AMD
On EURUSD
On BTCUSD
Comparison With ARMA
ARMA with parameters roughly matching A2RMA, overall most of the problems i wanted to fix where indeed fixed.
Conclusion
A huge thanks for the support i received during this "Blank Page" period i'am suffering, ARMA was an indicator i really wanted to further develop without giving up on the code simplicity and i think this version might provide useful results, we can also notice that the decision making is easier with this version of the indicator thanks to the added coloring (which would have been impossible with ARMA).
My work don't have license attached to it, feel free to modify and share your findings, mentioning is appreciated :)
Thanks for reading !
Efficiencyratio
Bryant Adaptive Moving Average@ChartArt got my attention to this idea.
This type of moving average was originally developed by Michael R. Bryant (Adaptrade Software newsletter, April 2014). Mr. Bryant suggested a new approach, so called Variable Efficiency Ratio (VER), to obtain adaptive behaviour for the moving average. This approach is based on Perry Kaufman' idea with Efficiency Ratio (ER) which was used by Mr. Kaufman to create KAMA.
As result Mr. Bryant got a moving average with adaptive lookback period. This moving average has 3 parameters:
Initial lookback
Trend Parameter
Maximum lookback
The 2nd parameter, Trend Parameter can take any positive or negative value and determines whether the lookback length will increase or decrease with increasing ER.
Changing Trend Parameter we can obtain KAMA' behaviour
To learn more see www.adaptrade.com
Efficient Auto LineMore Efficiency
Based on the Auto-Line code, the Efficient Auto Line aim to provide a more controlled adaptivity of the indicator. The first indicator of this sort worked this way : when the absolute difference between the price and the indicator is higher than the previous indicator +/- A pips of amplitude, the indicator will display the closing price, else its anterior value. The second indicator (Auto-Line) was adaptive and used the standard deviation instead of a constant A . This indicator will run both methodology providing both a trend strength indicator (Efficiency Ratio) parameter and two constant parameter.
Parameters
The length parameter will control the period of the efficiency ratio, a high period return lower values of the efficiency ratio. Since its an indicator in a range of (0,1) we use it to make our indicator more adaptive in trending market, this is when we need our two constant parameters, the fast/slow parameter can be any amount of pips where fast < slow , when the price is trending (efficiency ratio close to 1) the indicator will use the fast parameter, if its ranging (efficiency ratio away from 1) the indicator will use the slow parameter, then it will work like the first methodology previously explained. So the fast parameter should be equal to a small movement of pips (0.0001 or 1 pip) and the slow parameter should be equal to a number of pips you wont expect to see in a ranging market. At this point it is good to test for both parameter and see which values work better (a more automatic process is in development) .
Hope you like it !
Efficient PriceTrading The Movements That Matters
Inspired by the Price Volume Trend indicator the Efficient Price aim to create a better version of the price containing only the information a trend trader must need.
Calculation
This indicator use the Efficiency Ratio as a smoothing constant, it is calculated as follow :
ER = abs(change(close,length))/sum(abs(change(close)),length)
The goal of the Efficiency Ratio is to show if the market is trending or ranging.If ER is high then the market is considered to be trending, if ER is low then the market is considered to be ranging.
Then the Efficient Price is calculated :
EP = cum(change(close)*ER)
When the price is trending, the indicator will show movements of the price with unchanged volatility, but if the price is not trending then the indicator will flatten those movements.Think of this indicator as both a filter and a compressor and the Efficient Price as some kind of threshold.
The Efficient Price As Input For Indicators/Strategies
If the indicator show the movement of the trending price, it can be interesting to use it as input in order to reduce the number of false signals in a strategy.
We will test 2 MACD strategy provided by tradingview, one using the closing price (In Red) and one with the efficient price (In White) as input
with both the following parameters :
fastLength = 50
slowlength = 200
MACDLength = 20
length = 50
Where length is the parameter of the Efficient Price.A spread of 2 pips is used.
Without Efficient Price : 26.88% of profitability, 69 pips of profit.
With Efficient Price : 38.46% of profitability, 336 pips of profit.
The difference of profitability is of 11.58%, the strategy with the Efficient Price made few trades and its equity have a lower variance than the equity of the MACD strategy using closing price.
Smoothed Version
It is possible to smooth the indicator output by using the following code :
EP = cum(change(close,length)*ER)
Hope you enjoy
For any questions/demands feel free to pm me, i would be happy to help you
