EURUSD | Yield Curve Flip Strategy (2s10s State Flips)Strategy Core (Concept)
The strategy trades EURUSD exclusively when the US yield curve regime (2Y/10Y) flips into a new, clearly bullish or bearish regime. The core assumption is that re-pricing in the US yield curve (rather than individual data points) is a robust driver of USD strength or weakness and can act as a structural trigger for trend changes.
⸻
Data Basis
• Uses US 2Y Yield (TVC:US02Y) and US 10Y Yield (TVC:US10Y).
• The 2s10s curve is calculated as:
curveUS = US10Y – US2Y
• Regime assessment is based on the N-day change (default: 5 days), calculated on true rates bars (not intraday noise).
⸻
Regime Detection (Correct Bond Logic)
First, the strategy checks whether the curve has significantly steepened or flattened over the lookback period:
• Steepener if Δ(2s10s) > thrCurve (default: +0.10 percentage points = 10 bp)
• Flattener if Δ(2s10s) < −thrCurve
Next, a leg confirmation determines the specific type of steepener/flattener (default thrLeg = 5 bp):
Bull Steepener
• Curve steepens because yields fall, with the 2Y falling more (risk-off / rate-cut pricing)
Bear Steepener
• Curve steepens because yields rise, with the 10Y rising more (reflation / term-premium move)
Bull Flattener
• Curve flattens because yields fall, with the 10Y falling more (growth shock / long-end rally)
Bear Flattener
• Curve flattens because yields rise, with the 2Y rising more (hawkish repricing / front-end up)
Important: By default, a Bear Steepener is not treated as a bearish signal, unless allowBearSteepForShort is enabled.
⸻
State Machine (Memory + Flip Triggers)
The strategy maintains a persistent state variable curveState:
• +1 = bullish
• −1 = bearish
• 0 = neutral
The state is updated only on a new rates bar (daily rates when tfRates = "D"), avoiding intraday noise.
A trade is generated only on a true regime flip:
• flipToBull: new state turns bullish and the previous state was bearish (or neutral, if allowed)
• flipToBear: new state turns bearish and the previous state was bullish (or neutral, if allowed)
The option enterFromNeutral controls whether the first clear regime emerging from neutral is traded.
The option onlyOnNewRatesBar ensures signals occur only when a new rates bar is printed, providing clean timing.
⸻
Trading Rules (Entry / Exit)
There are no stops, targets, or trailing mechanisms. The strategy is a pure regime-switching / reversal system:
• On flipToBull
• Close short (“S”)
• Open long (“L”)
• On flipToBear
• Close long (“L”)
• Open short (“S”)
Positions are therefore held until the next regime flip.
⸻
Parameter Interpretation
• N: Smoothing / inertia. Smaller = faster but noisier; larger = more stable but later.
• thrCurve: Minimum curve move required to define a regime.
• thrLeg: Minimum move of the confirming leg (2Y or 10Y) to reduce misclassification.
• allowBearSteepForShort: Makes the system more aggressive (more bearish signals), but represents a different macro case.
• enterFromNeutral: Increases trade frequency by trading the first regime impulse.
⸻
What You See on the Chart
• Background shading:
• Green for bullish state
• Red for bearish state
• The curve and Δ-curve are plotted but hidden (display=none), mainly for debugging and analysis.
사이클
Market Structure HighLow + Liquidity [MaB]📊 Market Structure HighLow + Liquidity A comprehensive indicator combining precision market structure analysis with real-time liquidity zone detection, built on a custom finite-state machine architecture.
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🎯 KEY FEATURES
• Automatic Swing Detection Identifies structural High/Low points using a dual-confirmation system (minimum candles + pullback percentage)
• Smart Trend Tracking Automatically switches between Uptrend (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) and Downtrend (Lower Highs & Lower Lows)
• Breakout Alerts Visual markers for confirmed breakouts (Br↑ / Br↓) with configurable threshold
• Sequential Labeling Clear numbered labels (L1, H2, L3, H4...) showing the exact market structure progression
• Color-Coded Structure Lines
• Green: Uptrend continuation legs
• Red: Downtrend continuation legs
• Gray: Trend inversion points
• Imbalance Zones (FVG) Automatically detects Fair Value Gaps that form during impulsive moves between validated swing points
• Inducement Zones Identifies potential liquidity traps - FVGs that form before breakout confirmation, often used as stop-hunt areas
• Dynamic Zone Management Zones automatically close when price touches them, with configurable retracement sensitivity
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🔬 TECHNICAL ARCHITECTURE
This indicator does NOT rely on TradingView's built-in ta.pivothigh() / ta.pivotlow() functions.
Instead, it implements a custom finite-state machine (FSM) that manages multiple monitoring states, alternating dynamically between Uptrend and Downtrend modes based on confirmed breakouts.
Core Components:
• State Machine Engine Multiple internal states handle candidate detection, validation, and confirmation phases. The system transitions between states based on price action triggers and confirmation criteria.
• Dual-Confirmation System Each swing point must satisfy two independent filters before validation:
o Time-based filter (minimum candles)
o Price-based filter (minimum retracement %)
• Directional Breakout Logic Separate breakout detection routines for uptrend continuation, downtrend continuation, and trend inversion scenarios. Each triggers specific state transitions.
• FVG Classification Engine Automatically distinguishes between Imbalance zones (post-confirmation FVGs) and Inducement zones (pre-confirmation FVGs) based on breakout timing context.
• Dynamic Zone Lifecycle Zones are created, monitored, and closed through a managed lifecycle with configurable touch sensitivity.
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⚙️ CONFIGURABLE PARAMETERS
Market Structure
• Analysis Start Date: Define when to begin structure analysis
• Min Confirmation Candles: Required candles for validation (default: 3)
• Pullback Percentage: Minimum retracement for confirmation (default: 10%)
• Breakout Threshold: Percentage beyond structure for breakout (default: 1%)
Liquidity
• Show Zones: Toggle visibility of imbalance and inducement zones
• Zone Colors: Customize colors for Supply/Demand imbalances and inducements
• Zone Retracement %: How deep price must enter zone to consider it touched (0-100%)
• Inactive Zones Transparency: Visual distinction for closed zones
Display
• Show Market Structure Table: Toggle info panel
• Replay Mode: Optimize for TradingView Replay feature
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🎨 ZONE COLOR CODING
• 🔴 Imbalance Supply (Red): Bearish FVG - potential resistance/short entry
• 🟢 Imbalance Demand (Green): Bullish FVG - potential support/long entry
• 🟠 Inducement Supply (Orange): Pre-breakout bearish FVG - possible stop-hunt zone
• 🔵 Inducement Demand (Blue): Pre-breakout bullish FVG - possible stop-hunt zone
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💡 HOW IT WORKS
1. Initializes state machine in UPTREND mode, searching for first swing Low
2. Tracks price movement and triggers candidate states upon potential reversals
3. Validates candidates through dual-confirmation (time + price filters)
4. Upon confirmation, scans price range for FVG patterns (3-candle gaps)
5. Classifies detected FVGs based on breakout timing (Inducement vs Imbalance)
6. Monitors breakout levels - triggers state transitions on confirmed breaks
7. Alternates between Uptrend/Downtrend modes based on breakout direction
8. Manages zone lifecycle - closes zones when price retraces into them
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🔧 BEST USED FOR
• Identifying key support/resistance levels with liquidity context
• Spotting potential reversal zones (imbalances)
• Avoiding stop-hunt traps (inducement awareness)
• Trend direction confirmation
• Breakout trading setups with confluence
• Multi-timeframe structure and liquidity analysis
• Understanding where institutional orders may be resting
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⚠️ NOTES
• Works best on higher timeframes (1H+) for cleaner structure
• Inducement zones often convert to Imbalance zones after breakout confirmation
• Zone Retracement % allows fine-tuning: 0% = first touch, 25% = quarter penetration, 100% = full traversal
• Inactive zones remain visible (faded) to show historical liquidity levels
• Use Replay Mode when backtesting to prevent buffer overflow errors
NCL Noise FilterOne of our Favorite Indicators - the NeoChartLabs Noise Filter.
FILTER OUT THE NOISE and focus on the moves that matter, toggle the settings to match your preference.
Or switch the Duration Setting to Institutional on a high timeframe (1W+) to locate great spot buying opportunities near cycle tops and bottoms.
Volume Filter: The volume filter automatically turns OFF when you switch to Major Macro Cycle or Institutional Baseline, as those high-timeframe structural breaks are often valid even on lower relative volume.
You can change the volume requirement by checking the volume of the current breakout bar against its Relative Volume (RVOL) - A setting of 0 turns this OFF.
A common professional standard is to require the breakout volume to be at least 1.5x to 2x higher than the 20-period average volume.
*we recommend using a higher volume setting on low timeframes under the 4HR to reduce false signals.
MTF Filter:
*we recommend to set at least 1 timeframe above your trade (i.e if you enter on the 2hour set to the 4 hour)
It prevents entering trades that are essentially minor pullbacks in a much larger opposing trend.
By integrating a higher timeframe EMA (e.g., a 200-period EMA from a 4x higher timeframe), you can filter out counter-trend trades that have a higher probability of failing.
ATR Filter:
Filters "Fake-Outs": It forces the price to not just "touch" the trendline, but to break it with enough force to clear the current average volatility.
Adaptive: Unlike a fixed pip/dollar amount, the ATR adjusts to the asset. On Bitcoin, the threshold might be $500; on a penny stock, it might be $0.05.
Bullish Cross: The price must close above the support trendline + (0.5 * ATR).
Bearish Cross: The price must close below the resistance trendline - (0.5 * ATR).
MACD Filter:
Bullish Crosses require the MACD Histogram to be increasing (showing positive momentum acceleration).
Bearish Crosses require the MACD Histogram to be decreasing (showing negative momentum acceleration).
RSI Filter:
Bullish Breakout (Cross of the lower/support trendline): You would want the RSI to be rising or above 50, showing that buyers are in control.
Bearish Breakdown (Cross of the upper/resistance trendline): You would want the RSI to be falling or below 50, showing sellers are in control.
Market Structure Shifts (CHoCH) - identifying Trends with bullish/bearish dashed horizontal lines for each CHoCH providing a cleaner visualization of the support or resistance level that price has just violated.
Duration Table for 1Week Charts
Trading Style Fractal Length (p) Pattern Span Confirmation Delay
Standard Swing 2 5 Weeks 2 Weeks
Intermediate Trend 5 11 Weeks 5 Weeks
Major Macro Cycle 10–20 21–41 Weeks 10–20 Weeks
Institutional Baseline 44 ~2 Years ~10 Months
My Price Curtain by @magasine - v20251217**My Price Curtain by @magasine - v20251217**
This is a highly visual and practical TradingView overlay indicator designed to help traders quickly assess price position relative to a reference average (either a dynamic Simple Moving Average or a user-defined fixed price, such as a personal average entry cost).
### Key Features & Value for Traders:
- **Dynamic Price Curtain Background**
The entire chart background is lightly tinted green when price is above the average, red when below, or gray when at parity. This instant color feedback provides an immediate sense of bullish/bearish bias without needing to interpret lines or oscillators.
- **Deviation Zones (Optional)**
When enabled, semi-transparent horizontal bands appear above (green) and below (red) the average price, sized according to a user-defined percentage deviation (default 5%). These zones act as visual "fair value" corridors, highlighting over-extension or potential mean-reversion areas.
- **Persistent Horizontal Reference Lines**
- Solid blue line: the current average price (SMA or fixed)
- Dotted lines: upper and lower deviation zone boundaries
- Thin trailing line (when using SMA): connects previous SMA values for smoother trend visualization
- **Real-Time Information Panel**
A clean table in the bottom-right corner displays:
- Current average price and type (SMA(length) or FIXED)
- Latest close price
- Percentage distance from the average
- Total candles above/below the average (with percentages)
- Current position status (ABOVE/BELOW/AT AVERAGE) with color-coded highlighting
- **Additional Visual Cues**
- Small triangle markers on crossovers/crossunders of the average price
- Floating label on the last bar showing the average and current % deviation
- **Optional Cross Alerts**
Configurable alerts fire when price crosses above or below the reference average, including price, average, and deviation details.
### Why Traders Love It:
- Perfect for position traders monitoring performance relative to their average cost
- Great for mean-reversion or range-bound strategies using the deviation zones
- Excellent contextual awareness tool on any timeframe or asset
- Clean, non-cluttered design that enhances rather than overwhelms price action
In short, My Price Curtain transforms a simple moving average into a powerful, intuitive "price sentiment dashboard" that delivers instant visual context and actionable information at a glance.
Donations: linktr.ee
Crypto Market Sessions (Indian Time)Crypto Market Sessions (Indian Time) is a simple and clean indicator
designed for crypto traders who want to track major global market
sessions based on Indian Standard Time (UTC+05:30).
This indicator highlights the start and end of the following sessions:
• Asia Session
• UK / Europe Session
• USA Session
Each session start and end is marked with a vertical line and label,
making it easy to identify session breaks, market transitions,
and potential volatility periods.
Key Features:
• Indian Standard Time (IST) based session calculation
• Works on all crypto pairs and timeframes
• Clearly marks session start and end points
• No repainting
• Lightweight and easy to use
• Suitable for intraday and swing traders
This indicator does not use any future data and works in real time,
making it safe for live trading and analysis.
If you want any updates, improvements, or custom changes, you can contact me through my TradingView profile .
Gold Smart Scalper AI V21. The "Red Zone" (News Management)
The strategy logic does not "know" when the Federal Reserve is speaking.
Rule: Disable the strategy or stop taking signals 15 minutes before and after high-impact news (CPI, NFP, FOMC).
Why: During these times, Gold can move $30 in seconds. Slippage will cause your $1.50 Stop Loss to execute much further away, leading to massive drawdown.
2. Session Selection
Gold "Scalping" requires high liquidity and tight spreads.
Discretionary Filter: Only trade during the London/New York overlap (13:00 – 17:00 UTC).
Avoid: The late Asian session or Sunday market open. Spreads often widen to $0.50–$1.00, meaning you are already down 30-50% of your Stop Loss the moment you enter.
3. Market "Mood" (Trend vs. Range)
Trend Context: If the 50 EMA (the White line) is completely flat, the market is in a "Bracket." In this state, EMA crossovers generate many false signals.
The Adjustment: Discretionary traders wait for the 50 EMA to show a clear slope (up or down) before trusting the 9/21 crossover signals.
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Customizable Macro If you’re strategy relies on time then this indicator allows you to customize specific time windows to show so you no longer have to manually keep track of the time.
Hicham XAUUSD Key Levels PRO (Custom Series) V2🔑 XAUUSD Key Levels PRO | 1H / 4H Structure + Psychological Levels v2
This indicator is designed specifically for Gold (XAUUSD) traders who want clean, institutional-grade key levels without chart clutter.
It combines market structure levels with true psychological price levels used by institutions, making it ideal for scalping, intraday, and swing trading.
📌 Features
🔹 Market Structure Key Levels
Automatic 1H & 4H High / Low detection
Based on swing pivots (configurable strength)
Solid lines for clear structure visibility
🔹 Gold Psychological Levels (XAUUSD)
Major levels: every 500$ (strong institutional zones)
Medium levels: every 250$
Minor levels: every 10$
Dynamic levels around current price
No line spam, optimized performance
🔹 Visual Clarity
Solid / dashed / dotted line styles
Custom colors & line thickness
Optional price labels
Works perfectly on M1 → H4
🎯 Best Use Cases
Liquidity sweeps & reactions
Premium / discount zones
Stop-loss & take-profit placement
Confluence with BOS / CHoCH
London & New York sessions
⚙️ Fully Customizable
Toggle 1H / 4H levels
Adjust psychological level spacing
Enable / disable labels
Clean & lightweight (no lag)
⚠️ Notes
Optimized for XAUUSD (Gold)
Best results when combined with price action & structure
Not a trading signal indicator
If you want:
Session-based levels
Alerts on key levels
Smart Money Concepts integration
Feel free to comment or DM 👊
Happy trading 💛📈
Open-source script
In true TradingView spirit, the creator of this script has made it open-source, so that traders can review and verify its functionality. Kudos to the author! While you can use it for free, remember that republishing the code is subject to our House Rules.
hichamfata
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
50-Point Psych Levels (Multiples of 50)50-Point Psychological Levels (Multiples of 50)
This indicator plots static psychological price levels at fixed point intervals (default every 50 points) across the chart. These levels are commonly watched by traders as natural areas of reaction, balance, support, and resistance, especially on index futures such as NQ, ES, YM, and RTY.
The script automatically centers the levels around the current market price and draws them across a configurable range above and below price. All levels extend across the entire chart and are drawn once only, keeping the display clean and preventing redraw lag.
Key Features
Plots horizontal levels at fixed point spacing (default: 50 points)
Automatically anchors around the latest price
Configurable range above and below price
Customizable line color, width, and style
Lightweight, non-repainting, static reference levels
Best Use Cases
Identifying psychological support and resistance
Confluence with VWAP, EMA structure, ORB levels, and volume
Futures trading (NQ, ES, YM, RTY), indexes, and large-tick instruments
TASC 2026.01 The Reversion Index█ OVERVIEW
This script implements the Reversion Index as presented by John F. Ehlers in the January 2026 edition of the TASC Traders' Tips , "Identifying Peaks And Valleys In Ranging Markets”. This indicator was created to provide timely buy and sell signals for mean reversion strategies.
█ CONCEPTS
Ehlers came up with the idea for the Reversion Index following the development of the "Continuation Index" (featured in the September 2025 edition). While the Continuation Index provides indications for trend onset, continuation, and exhaustion; the Reversion Index serves as its counterpart for mean-reversion trading.
The raw Reversion Index value is calculated as the net change in price normalized to the sum of the absolute value of change in price over the same period; for clarity, it is then smoothed using Ehlers' SuperSmoother.
The Smooth Reversion Index value is led by a "Trigger" line, which is created by smoothing the raw data to half the smoothing period of the smoothed index.
Note: Ehlers suggests the smoothing lengths be left at 8 and 4 (Reversion Index & Trigger). For this reason these lengths are hard-coded in the script but can be easily modified in the code.
█ USAGE
In order to identify peaks and valleys effectively, the "Length" should ideally be set to half of that of the expected cycle of the data. If the expected cycle of your trading data is 20 bars, a 10 bar length should be set.
Note: The Reversion Index is intended to identify peaks and valleys within a cycle, not over a large sample period. Ehlers suggests that this would create an estimation of trend, which is not the goal here.
Once the length is set, peaks and valleys are interpreted as the cross of the "Trigger" and "Smooth" lines.
Highlighted Range (3 Sessions)3 session customizable range. All one color customizable for simplicity.
BTC - VDD Multiple (Approx)Overview & Philosophy
⚠️ Note: This indicator is optimized for the Daily (1D) Timeframe. Please switch your chart to 1D for accurate signal reading.
The BTC – VDD Multiple (Approx) is an advanced oscillator designed to identify market overheating and cycle tops by analyzing the velocity of value moving through the market.
In traditional On-Chain Analysis, Value Days Destroyed (VDD) is a premier metric for spotting macro tops. It multiplies the coin age (how long a coin was held) by the price at which it was moved. When old coins (HODLer money) move at high prices, VDD spikes, signaling massive profit-taking.
The Problem: Real "Coin Days Destroyed" (CDD) data is typically locked behind institutional paywalls or unavailable on standard TradingView plans.
The Solution: This script calculates a Deterministic Proxy. By analyzing the relationship between Exchange Volume, Price, and a Dormancy Constant, we can approximate the structure of the VDD Multiple without needing a premium data feed.
Methodology
The VDD Multiple works by comparing short-term market velocity against a long-term baseline.
1. The Proxy Calculation
Since we cannot directly access the age of coins on TradingView, we model the economic weight of the move:
Proxy Value = Exchange Volume * Price * Dormancy Factor
This creates a synthetic representation of "Value Throughput."
2. The Multiple
We compare the immediate heat of the market against the yearly trend:
• Short-Term MA (2 Days): Captures flash spikes and sudden liquidity exit events.
• Long-Term MA (365 Days): Represents the baseline "hum" of network activity.
VDD Multiple = Short Term MA / Long Term MA
How to Read the Chart
The indicator plots the Multiple as a line and uses background highlighting to signal extreme regimes.
🔴 The Red Zone (Overheated > 2.9)
Meaning: Current value transfer is ~3x higher than the yearly average.
Interpretation: Historically, sharp spikes into the Red Zone correlate with Local or Cycle Tops. This indicates that massive volume is changing hands at high prices—typically a sign of "Smart Money" distributing into "Dumb Money" FOMO.
Note: In strong bull runs, price can push higher even after a VDD spike, but the risk/reward ratio is extremely poor here.
🟢 The Green Zone (Undervalued < 0.75)
Meaning: Market activity is quiet and below the yearly baseline.
Interpretation: These are periods of apathy or accumulation. Historically, extended time spent in the Green Zone (the "flatline") has offered the best asymmetric buying opportunities.
🟠 The Orange Line (Neutral)
Meaning: The market is in transition or equilibrium.
Strategy & Context
This indicator is best used as a Macro Cycle Tool, not a day-trading signal.
• Exit Strategy: Look for "Clusters" of Red Spikes. A single spike often marks a local correction, but a cluster of intense spikes while price makes new highs (Divergence) is a strong Cycle Top warning.
• Entry Strategy: Historically the best entries occur when the indicator flattens out in the Green Zone for weeks or months. This suggests sellers are exhausted and the market has reached a floor.
Credits
This script is an approximation of the original VDD Multiple concept. Full credit for the underlying on-chain theory goes to the pioneers of this metric:
• Concept: The original Value Days Destroyed metric was popularized by Hans Hauge and Glassnode.
• The Multiple: The specific application of a Short/Long MA Multiple on VDD is widely attributed to analysts like TXMC and Bitbo.
This script adapts these concepts for the free TradingView environment using exchange volume proxies.
Settings
• Data Source: Defaults to BINANCE:BTCUSDT to capture high-volume liquidity.
• Short MA: Default is 2 Days to capture rapid velocity spikes.
• Long MA: Default is 365 Days to track the annual trend.
Disclaimer
This tool is an approximation based on exchange volume, not raw blockchain data. While exchange volume and on-chain volume are highly correlated during cycle extremes, they are not identical. This script is for educational and research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Tags
bitcoin, btc, onchain, vdd, cdd, valuation, cycle, top, bottom, Rob Maths
One-Sided Hodrick-Prescott FilterTechnical & Mathematical Architecture
This indicator represents a significant departure from standard Moving Averages or traditional Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter implementations found on Trading View. It utilizes a State-Space Model approach to decompose time-series data into trend and cyclical components, solved recursively via a Kalman Filter (Forward Pass) and a Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) Smoother (Backward Pass). Furthermore, it introduces a proprietary Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) loop to adapt the smoothing parameter (λ) dynamically in response to market regimes.
1.1 The State-Space Formulation
The standard HP filter minimizes a specific loss function involving the sum of squared deviations and the sum of squared second differences. While typically solved via batch matrix inversion, this script reformulates the problem as a Local Linear Trend (LLT) model, a stochastic structural model defined by:
Measurement Equation:
y = μ + ε
(Where ε is normally distributed noise)
State Transition Equations:
μ = μ + β + η
β = β + ζ
Where μ represents the stochastic level (trend) and β represents the stochastic slope (drift). The crucial link to the HP filter is the signal-to-noise ratio. By setting the variance of η to 0 (smooth trend) and defining λ as the ratio of measurement variance to slope variance, the Kalman Filter solution converges exactly to the One-Sided HP Filter.
1.2 The Forward Pass: Kalman Filter
The script executes a recursive estimation loop for real-time (causal) filtering:
Prediction Step: Projects the state mean and error covariance forward based on the transition matrix.
Innovation: Calculates the measurement residual (v = y - predicted y).
Update Step: Computes the Kalman Gain. The posterior state is updated based on how much the prediction missed the actual price.
Stability: The covariance update utilizes the Joseph Form subtraction to ensure the covariance matrix remains positive semi-definite, preventing numerical instability inherent in high-precision floating-point calculations over long durations.
1.3 Adaptive λ via Maximum Likelihood
Standard filters use a static λ (e.g., 1600 for quarterly data), which fails in crypto/FX markets exhibiting changing volatility. This script implements an Adaptive ML Loop.
The Kalman Filter assumes innovations are normally distributed with a specific theoretical variance (S). We compute a running variance ratio test:
Ratio = Actual Innovation Variance / Theoretical Variance
Ratio > 1: The model is "surprised" by volatility. The filter is under-fitting. The script dynamically decreases λ to increase responsiveness (reduce lag).
Ratio < 1: The model is over-fitting noise. The script increases λ to enforce a smoother trend.
This allows the filter to function as a low-lag trend follower during impulses and a robust noise filter during consolidation, automatically.
1.4 The Backward Pass: Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) Smoother
This is the most complex feature of the script. While the Forward Pass provides the optimal estimate based on past data, the Backward Pass computes the optimal estimate based on all data.
The RTS algorithm runs purely on historical arrays stored in memory:
It iterates backward from the last bar to the past. It computes a "Smoother Gain" matrix based on future information. It updates the past estimates to correct them based on what happened afterwards. This results in a Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) estimator. Note: This smoothed line is for analytical hindsight and back testing theoretical limits; it is distinct from the real-time filtered line used for live signaling.
Usage Guide:
This indicator is designed for precision trend following and mean-reversion trading. It separates the market price into a Trend Component (Signal) and a Cycle Component (Noise/Oscillation).
The Two Trend Lines:
The Filtered Trend (Real-Time): This is the filled/shaded line on your chart. It calculates the trend using only past data. It does not repaint. Use this for entering and exiting live trades.
Green Fill: Price is above the trend (Bullish bias).
Red Fill: Price is below the trend (Bearish bias).
The Smoothed Trend (Hindsight): (Optional, enabled via settings). This is the "God mode" line. It uses future data to show you exactly where the trend was.
WARNING: This line repaints. Do not trade the tip of this line. Its purpose is to show you the ideal path for training your eye or optimizing parameters.
Mean Reversion Signals:
The script calculates the "Cycle," which is the percentage deviation of price from the HP Trend.
Bands: The Upper and Lower bands represent the Cycle Threshold.
Long Signal (L): Triggered when the Cycle is Oversold (below lower band) AND begins to turn up, while the Filtered Drift (slope) is positive. This suggests a "dip buy" in an uptrend.
Short Signal (S): Triggered when the Cycle is Overbought (above upper band) AND begins to turn down, while the Filtered Drift is negative. This suggests selling a rally in a downtrend.
Adaptive Lambda Panel:
Enable the "Lambda Panel" to see the engine under the hood.
Rising Lambda (Blue): The market is noisy or consolidating. The filter is becoming "stiffer" to ignore the chop.
Falling Lambda (Orange): The market is trending impulsively. The filter is becoming "looser" to track the price closely and reduce lag.
Strategy: You can use low Lambda values as a confirmation of high-volatility breakout regimes.
Performance Table:
A dashboard in the bottom right corner displays the efficiency of the Kalman Filter:
MSE Filtered vs. Smoothed: Shows the Mean Squared Error of the real-time prediction vs. the hindsight-optimal smooth.
Improvement %: A higher percentage indicates that the RTS Smoother is extracting significantly more noise than the real-time filter (common in choppy markets).
Kalman Gains (K1, K2): These display the current weight the filter assigns to new price data for updating the Level and Slope respectively.
Summary of Settings
Base Lambda: The starting stiffness. Higher = smoother (long-term trend). Lower = responsive (short-term trend).
Adaptation Speed: Recommended between 0.01 and 0.05. Controls how fast λ reacts to volatility shocks.
Smoother Lookback: How far back (in bars) the RTS algorithm re-optimizes the historical line.
Best Practice: Use the Filtered Trend for execution. Use the Smoothed Trend to analyze past price action and determine if your Base Lambda setting is appropriate for the asset's volatility profile.
Dipy the MFT Super OscillatorDipy the MFT Super Oscillator
A multi-timeframe bandpass oscillator for mean-reversion and "buy the dip" strategies.
🎯 What It Does
Isolates market cycles within a specific frequency range to identify overbought/oversold conditions and reversal points.
⏱️ Multi-Timeframe
Set Signal Timeframe to calculate signals on higher TF while viewing lower TF chart. Example: 5min chart + 1H signals = noise reduction with precise timing.
⚙️ Key Settings
Bandwidth/BandEdge: Define the cycle range to capture
Cloud Type: None for thresholds, others for consensus cloud
Thresholds: Overbought/oversold levels for signals
💡 Best Use
Combine with trend indicator (only buy dips in uptrend)
Higher Signal Timeframe = cleaner signals
Cloud mode = more conservative entries
🔔 Alerts
Create ONE alert for all signals.
Derived from TASC 2025.04 Ultimate Oscillator by John Ehlers.
Key Levels: Volume Profile POCProfessional Intraday Key Levels (CST)
This is a comprehensive, institutional-grade Pine Script indicator designed for intraday traders (Futures, Stocks, Options) operating in the Central Time Zone. It automatically plots the most significant support and resistance levels used by algorithms and professional desks.
1. Core Levels Monitored
Daily Levels: Previous Day High (PDH), Low (PDL), Open, Close, and the 50% Midpoint (Equilibrium).
Volume Profile POC: Unlike standard indicators that use a simple average, this calculates the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of the previous day to determine the true "Fair Value" or Point of Control. Plotted with a thicker, distinct purple line.
Weekly Magnets: Previous Week High (PWH) and Low (PWL), which often act as major targets for breakouts or reversals.
Pre-Market Data: Tracks the High and Low established between 03:00 AM – 08:30 AM CST.
Opening Range (OR): Automatically captures the High and Low of the first 60 minutes of the regular session (08:30 AM – 09:30 AM CST).
2. Smart Visualization Features
Anti-Overlap Labels: If two levels (e.g., Pre-Market High and Previous Day High) are within 0.02% of each other, the script automatically merges them into a single label (e.g., "PDH & Pre-Market High") to prevent chart clutter.
Source Tracing: Trace lines extend backward from the current price level to the exact candle where that High or Low was formed (for Pre-Market and Opening Range levels), giving you instant context on when the level was created.
Clean Readability: Labels are displayed in bold, solid text without price numbers, ensuring a clean chart that focuses on level identification rather than data overload.
3. Technical Precision
Time Zone Locked: Hardcoded to America/Chicago to ensure Pre-Market and Opening Range calculations remain accurate regardless of your local computer settings.
Non-Repainting: Daily and Weekly levels are locked using closed-candle data (lookahead_on), ensuring lines do not shift during the trading day.
Buffer Safe: Optimized drawing logic prevents historical buffer errors, even on lower timeframes (1m/5m).
4. Customization
Toggle Everything: Every single level has an individual "Show/Hide" checkbox in the settings.
Label Sizing: Adjustable text size (Tiny to Huge) and offset positioning.
Compact Mode: Option to switch between full names ("Previous Day High") and abbreviations ("PDH").
Premium Volume Divergence Signals [Stansbooth]Advanced Divergence Indicator
This indicator is designed to uncover the hidden relationship between price action and momentum. By accurately detecting when price and momentum move in different directions, it highlights bullish and bearish divergences at critical market points — often before reversals or strong continuations occur.
🔹 Key Features:
Precise detection of Regular and Hidden Divergence
Helps identify early market reversals
Clean, clear, and easy-to-read visual signals
Works across Forex, Crypto, and Stock markets
Suitable for all timeframes and trading styles
This indicator empowers traders to make smarter entries, confident exits, and better risk management decisions. Instead of chasing the market, it allows you to anticipate price movement with confidence.
Trade smarter, not harder — let divergence reveal the real market strength.
Relative Outperformance + EMA Trend Filter (Long Only)Relative Outperformance based on underlying and EMA based trend filtering
MR.Mix Market Context
MR.Mix هو نظام تحليل سياقي مبني على الجلسات، تم تطويره لدعم منهجية تداول خاصة تحمل نفس الاسم (MR.Mix).
لا يُعد هذا المؤشر دمجًا لمؤشرات مستقلة، بل إطارًا تحليليًا واحدًا يتم فيه تنسيق عدة مكوّنات داخلية للعمل معًا وفق منطق موحّد يعتمد على بنية الجلسات، سلوك السعر، واستجابة الزخم.
يعمل المؤشر كأداة تحليلية مساعدة للاستراتيجية، حيث يركّز على قراءة سياق السوق وتأكيد الحالات التي تعتمد عليها المنهجية، دون توليد إشارات تداول مباشرة أو وعود أداء.
الوظائف الرئيسية:
• تحديد افتتاح جلسة نيويورك ورسم مستويات مرجعية مشتقة من الجلسة
• تصور نطاق ما قبل الافتتاح مع تتبع القمم والقيعان بشكل تراكمي
• عرض هياكل RSI والفوليوم مدمجة داخل الشارت ومقاسة نسبةً إلى النطاق السعري الظاهر
• متوسط متحرك EMA مع خيارات تنعيم تكيفية ونطاقات تذبذب اختيارية
• جميع العناصر البصرية تُعرض بناءً على شروط سياقية وليست مرسومة بشكل ثابت
تمت حماية كود المؤشر لاعتماده على تنسيق داخلي خاص بين توقيت الجلسات، التحجيم التكيفي، ومنطق العرض الشرطي، وهو تصميم لا يمكن إعادة إنتاجه بدقة باستخدام مؤشرات Pine المفتوحة دون كشف البنية الداخلية.
شرح العناصر على الرسم البياني:
• الخطوط الأفقية تمثل مستويات مرجعية مشتقة من الجلسات
• الخطوط العمودية تشير إلى انتقالات الجلسات
• المناطق المظللة توضح نطاقات ما قبل الافتتاح
• صناديق RSI والفوليوم المدمجة تعكس الزخم والمشاركة ضمن النطاق السعري الظاهر فقط
────────────────────────────────
MR.Mix is a session-based market context system developed to support a proprietary trading methodology under the same name (MR.Mix).
This script is not a compilation of standalone indicators. It is a unified analytical framework where multiple internal components are coordinated to operate under a single logic focused on session structure, price behavior, and momentum response.
The indicator functions as a supportive analytical tool for the methodology by providing market context and condition confirmation, without generating direct trading signals or performance claims.
Key features:
• New York session open detection with session-derived reference levels
• Pre-market range visualization with cumulative high/low tracking
• Embedded RSI and Volume structures rendered directly on the price chart and scaled relative to the visible price range
• EMA with optional adaptive smoothing and volatility bands
• All visual elements are condition-driven and context-aware rather than continuously plotted
The script is protected because it relies on proprietary coordination between session timing, adaptive scaling, and conditional rendering logic that cannot be accurately replicated using standard open-source Pine indicators without exposing internal structure.
Chart elements:
• Horizontal lines represent session-derived reference prices
• Vertical lines mark session transitions
• Shaded areas define pre-market price boundaries
• Embedded RSI and Volume boxes reflect momentum and participation within the visible range only
MR.MixMarket Context
MR.Mix هو نظام تحليل سياقي مبني على الجلسات، تم تطويره لدعم منهجية تداول خاصة تحمل نفس الاسم (MR.Mix).
لا يُعد هذا المؤشر دمجًا لمؤشرات مستقلة، بل إطارًا تحليليًا واحدًا يتم فيه تنسيق عدة مكوّنات داخلية للعمل معًا وفق منطق موحّد يعتمد على بنية الجلسات، سلوك السعر، واستجابة الزخم.
يعمل المؤشر كأداة تحليلية مساعدة للاستراتيجية، حيث يركّز على قراءة سياق السوق وتأكيد الحالات التي تعتمد عليها المنهجية، دون توليد إشارات تداول مباشرة أو وعود أداء.
الوظائف الرئيسية:
• تحديد افتتاح جلسة نيويورك ورسم مستويات مرجعية مشتقة من الجلسة
• تصور نطاق ما قبل الافتتاح مع تتبع القمم والقيعان بشكل تراكمي
• عرض هياكل RSI والفوليوم مدمجة داخل الشارت ومقاسة نسبةً إلى النطاق السعري الظاهر
• متوسط متحرك EMA مع خيارات تنعيم تكيفية ونطاقات تذبذب اختيارية
• جميع العناصر البصرية تُعرض بناءً على شروط سياقية وليست مرسومة بشكل ثابت
تمت حماية كود المؤشر لاعتماده على تنسيق داخلي خاص بين توقيت الجلسات، التحجيم التكيفي، ومنطق العرض الشرطي، وهو تصميم لا يمكن إعادة إنتاجه بدقة باستخدام مؤشرات Pine المفتوحة دون كشف البنية الداخلية.
شرح العناصر على الرسم البياني:
• الخطوط الأفقية تمثل مستويات مرجعية مشتقة من الجلسات
• الخطوط العمودية تشير إلى انتقالات الجلسات
• المناطق المظللة توضح نطاقات ما قبل الافتتاح
• صناديق RSI والفوليوم المدمجة تعكس الزخم والمشاركة ضمن النطاق السعري الظاهر فقط
────────────────────────────────
MR.Mix is a session-based market context system developed to support a proprietary trading methodology under the same name (MR.Mix).
This script is not a compilation of standalone indicators. It is a unified analytical framework where multiple internal components are coordinated to operate under a single logic focused on session structure, price behavior, and momentum response.
The indicator functions as a supportive analytical tool for the methodology by providing market context and condition confirmation, without generating direct trading signals or performance claims.
Key features:
• New York session open detection with session-derived reference levels
• Pre-market range visualization with cumulative high/low tracking
• Embedded RSI and Volume structures rendered directly on the price chart and scaled relative to the visible price range
• EMA with optional adaptive smoothing and volatility bands
• All visual elements are condition-driven and context-aware rather than continuously plotted
The script is protected because it relies on proprietary coordination between session timing, adaptive scaling, and conditional rendering logic that cannot be accurately replicated using standard open-source Pine indicators without exposing internal structure.
Chart elements:
• Horizontal lines represent session-derived reference prices
• Vertical lines mark session transitions
• Shaded areas define pre-market price boundaries
• Embedded RSI and Volume boxes reflect momentum and participation within the visible range only
GOLD 5m PA ScalperXAUUSD 5-Minute Price Action Scalper with HTF Confirmation
This Pine Script is a trend-following scalping strategy designed specifically for XAUUSD (Gold) on the 1,3,5-minute timeframe.
Its main goal is to reduce noise and false signals by combining lower-timeframe price action with higher-timeframe (15-minute) structure.
CORE IDEA
Trade only in the direction of the dominant trend and only when price reacts from a strong higher-timeframe Order Block.
Daily & Pre-Market Key Levels (v5)Plots:
- Today's high/low
- Pre-market High/Low
- Yesterday's high/low/close
- Day before yesterday high/low
