Silver Macro Projection ModelSILVER MACRO PROJECTION MODEL
Multi-Factor Fair Value Estimation for Silver
OVERVIEW
The Silver Macro Projection Model estimates silver's fair value based on its historical relationships with key macroeconomic drivers. By synthesizing data from gold, M2 money supply, the US Dollar Index, and major equity indices, this indicator projects where silver should theoretically be trading, helping traders identify potential overvaluation and undervaluation conditions.
HOW IT WORKS
This indicator employs three complementary projection methodologies:
Correlation-Weighted Z-Score Composite (50% weight) - Calculates rolling correlations between silver and each input factor. Factors with stronger correlations receive more influence. Each factor is normalized to a z-score, combined into a composite, then converted back to silver's price scale.
Gold/Silver Ratio Mean Reversion (35% weight) - The gold/silver ratio historically exhibits mean-reverting behavior. This component projects silver's implied price based on current gold prices and the historical average ratio.
M2 Money Supply Relationship (15% weight) - Silver tracks monetary expansion over long time horizons. This anchors the projection to the fundamental relationship between silver and the monetary base.
INPUT FACTORS
Gold - Strong Positive - Precious metals move together; silver amplifies gold
M2 Supply - Positive - Inflation hedge; expands with monetary base
DXY - Negative - Dollar strength pressures commodity prices
S&P 500 - Variable - Risk sentiment indicator
Dow Jones - Variable - Industrial/economic health proxy
Nasdaq 100 - Variable - Growth/risk appetite indicator
Russell 2000 - Variable - Small-cap risk sentiment
VISUAL ELEMENTS
Silver Line (Gray) - Actual silver price
Yellow Line - Model's projected fair value
Green Fill - Silver trading BELOW projection (potentially undervalued)
Red Fill - Silver trading ABOVE projection (potentially overvalued)
INFORMATION TABLE
The indicator displays a real-time panel showing:
Current correlation coefficients for each factor
Dynamic weight allocation based on correlation strength
Z-scores for each input factor
Actual vs. projected silver price
Percentage divergence from fair value
Signal classification (Strong Buy to Strong Sell)
SETTINGS
Lookback Settings
Correlation Period (default: 60) - Bars used for rolling correlations
Regression Period (default: 120) - Bars for z-score normalization
Smoothing Period (default: 10) - EMA smoothing on projection
Weight Settings
Use Auto Correlation Weights - Weights adjust dynamically based on correlation strength
Manual Weights - Override with custom factor weights
ALERTS
Silver Extremely Undervalued (Z < -2)
Silver Extremely Overvalued (Z > +2)
Price crossed above projection
Price crossed below projection
BEST PRACTICES
Use on daily timeframe for most reliable signals
Combine with the companion Divergence Oscillator for timing
Extreme divergences (>2 sigma) historically precede mean reversion
Consider macro environment as correlations shift during different regimes
Longer regression periods (150-250) for investing; shorter (60-90) for trading
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past correlations do not guarantee future relationships. Always use proper risk management.
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