Quantitative Price Forecasting - The Quant ScienceThis script is a quantitative price forecasting indicator that forecasts price changes for a given asset.
The model aims to forecast future prices by analyzing past data within a selected time period. Mathematical probability is used to calculate whether starting from time X can lead to reaching prices Y1 and Y2. In this context, X represents the current selected time period, Y1 represents the selected percentage decrease, and Y2 represents the selected percentage increase. The probabilities are estimated using the simple average.
The simple average is displayed on the chart, showing in red the periods where the price is below the average and in green the periods where the price is above the average.
This powerful tool not only provides forecasts of future prices but also calculates the distribution of variations around the average. It then takes this information and creates an estimate of the average price variation around the simple average.
Using a mean-reverting logic, buying and selling opportunities are highlighted.
We recommend turning off the display of bars on your chart for a better experience when using this indicator.
Unlock the full potential of your trading strategy with our powerful indicator. By analyzing past price data, it provides accurate forecasts and calculates the probability of reaching specific price targets. Its mean-reverting logic highlights buying and selling opportunities, while the simple moving average displayed on the chart shows periods where the price is above or below the average. Additionally, it estimates the average variation of price around the simple average, giving you valuable insights into price movements. Don't miss out on this valuable tool that can take your trading to the next level
Average
Fibonacci Step IndicatorThe Fibonacci Step Indicator assumes irregularity in calculating a moving average. It is measured as the mean of the previous lows and highs situated at Fibonacci past periods. For example, the mean of the lows from 2, 3, 5, 8, etc. periods ago form the Fibonacci step indicator.
The indicator uses the formula for the first twelve Fibonacci numbers on highs and lows so that it creates a moving support/resistance zone. Afterwards, the zone is stabilized by taking the highest highs of the upper indicator and the lowest lows of the lower indicator part.
The indicator is used as a trend following way. It can be compared to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud (without the future projection). The zone form a support and resistance area. During ranging periods, the market will fluctuate within the area which is a bad time to follow the trend (if any).
Strategy Myth-Busting #4 - LSMA+HULL Crossover - [MYN]This is part of a new series we are calling "Strategy Myth-Busting" where we take open public manual trading strategies and automate them. The goal is to not only validate the authenticity of the claims but to provide an automated version for traders who wish to trade autonomously.
Our fourth one we are automating is one of the strategies from "I Found The Best 1 Minute Scalping Strategy That Actually Works! ( Beginner Friendly )" from "Trade Domination" who claims to have made 366% profit on the 1 min chart of Solona despite having a 31% win rate in just a few weeks. As you can see from the backtest results below, I was unable to substantiate anything close to that that claim on the same symbol ( SOLUSD ), timeframe (1m) with identical instrument settings that "Trade Domination" was demonstrating with. Strategy Busted.
If you know of or have a strategy you want to see myth-busted or just have an idea for one, please feel free to message me.
This strategy uses a combination of 2 open-source public indicators:
LSMA
Hull Suite by InSilico
Trading Rules
1 min candles
Stop Loss on recent swing High/Low
1:5 Risk Ratio
Enter Long
LSMA cross above Red Hull Suite line
Price has to be above Hull Suite Line
Enter Short
LSMA crosses under green Hull Suite Line
Price has to be below Hull Suite Line
ATR Oscillator - Index (Average True range Oscillator)The purpose of converting the ATR value indicator to an oscillator;
It is known that the ATR value is not between the two specified values. So it is not compressed between 0 and 100 like RSI and %B etc. Therefore, conditions such as "A condition if ATR value is X, B condition if ATR value is Y" cannot be created. In order to create these conditions, the max and min value range of the ATR value must be determined. This indicator converts the ATR values into a percentage number according to the maximum and minimum ATR values in the period you will choose. Max value is 100, min value is 0. The considered ATR value, on the other hand, corresponds to the % of the difference between the max and min value in the selected period.
In this way, conditions such as "If the ATR Oscillator value is greater than 10 or 20 or 30" can now be created, or the value of another indicator can be calculated based on the ATR Oscillator value. For example; Let's say we want the standard deviation of BBand to change according to the value of the ATR Oscillator. If BBand Standard Deviation is 3 if ATRO value is 100, BBand Standard Deviation is 2 if ATRO value is 0, and BBand Standard Deviation is 2.5 when ATRO value is 50;
We can encode it as BBand_Std_Dev=((ATRO*0.01)+2 )
If the ATRO value is between .... and ...., you can make improvements such as plot color X.
SMMA slope deviation alertThis indicator alerts when the deviation of close value from SMMA is more than 30% of the average deviation for the last 14 bars. The period of SMMA can be adjusted.
This indicator has 3 hardcoded timeframes so there is almost no sense what timeframe you use. It gathers data from 15m, 1H and 4H timeframes and combines then on one chart.
The markers are drawn one over another, for example, if you set 1H timeframe on you chart green markers from 15m can be placed under the same 1h-candle where the blue one lights on 1H. The algo is made to lower the risks of traders, so if you use 15m timeframe you will see green marker but if you use 1H you will see the blue marker on 1H (and don't see the green one because the blue is over the green). This is somewhat a "hardcoded scalp screener". You can "zoom in" and "zoom out" the row of markers by toggling between 15m and 1H and 4H but conditions for the signals are the same.
Black and blue markers light when the price is too far from the SMMA . "Too far" means that deviation is greater than the average deviation (for 14 bars) multiplied by 1.3.
Red and green markers light when besides the condition mentioned above, the price change is accelarating. Acceleration is considered in terms of the speed of running from SMMA . if SMMA was crossed by the priceline less than 8 bars ago and now it went so far that the condition of 30% is triggered then red and green markers light.
Anchored VWAP BandSimple script to anchor vwap to a drag and drop spot on the chart and display it as a band instead of a line.
the AVAP Band displays:
1. The AVWAP using High as the source
2. The AVWAP using OHLC4 as the source
3. The AVWAP using Low as the source
This is just a different way of visualising VWAP from an anchored point in time (Band vs Line)
Correlated ATR MA | AdulariHow do I use it?
Never use this indicator as standalone trading signal, it should be used as confluence.
When the price is above the moving average this shows the bullish trend is strong.
When the price is below the moving average this shows the bearish trend is strong.
When the moving average is purple, the trend is bullish, when it is gray, the trend is bearish.
Features:
Purple line for bullish trend and gray line for bearish trend.
Custom formula combining an ATR and Hull MA to clearly indicate trend strength and direction.
Unique approach to moving averages by taking the average of 3 types of MA's combined with custom ATR's.
How does it work?
1 — ATR value is calculated, then the correlation between the source and ATR is calculated.
2 — Signal value is calculated from the difference between the previous source and ATR values.
3 — Final value is being calculated using the following formula:
cor * target + (1 - cor) * nz(atr , target)
4 — Moving average is calculated by getting the average of 3 values: a normal HMA, HMA plus final value, and HMA minus final value.
Smooth EMA/DEMA/TEMA/EHMA (SEMA)This is my attempt at smoothing the exponential moving average any its cousins. I literally just smoothed the source and alpha and this is what we got. I really like this because you get a nice smooth yet fast acting moving average that works better than a traditional simple moving average. This script also included directional alerts.
Smooth EMA
Smooth DEMA
Smooth TEMA
Smooth EHMA
10 MAs Alpha Indicator by MontyThis indicator is a part of the script I coded earlier this month.
The name is to surprise one of our discord member.
I will publish that indicator in a few days as well, but publishing this as a gesture of giving back to the community.
Indicator has:
10 Moving Averages
Adjustable Color, Opacity and Size etc
Shows Labels for each of the MA.
Can be shifted between EMA or SMA
Can be fixed to show a specific TF MA on current Timeframe.
Oscillating Length Moving Averages***CREDIT TO TradingView's TA Library*** (), Attempted to use "import TradingView/ta/4" to import the library, but for whatever reason
some of the functions failed to work, while others had no issue, so I opted to just copy paste what I wanted to use.
This moving average uses an oscillator to influence the length used during calculation. Extremely customizable/tunable with ability to change Max and Min length values, length multiplier, length multiple,4 different settings ,( Decline , <>Peak, >Decline , <>Peak, >
ATR & APCAverage True Range (ATR) and Average Price Change (APC). Shows the ATR and APC as well as the TR and PC for the current bar, colour coded to indicate very large/small bars. The ATR and APC are also colour coded to reflect whether they are increasing or decreasing. Style will need to be customized.
Sw1tchFX - Average Daily RangeDESCRIPTION AND OVERVIEW
The Average Daily Range is a measure of volatility (typically across 5 days for the FX markets). I originally saw this being used in a trading system called ANTSSYS by Daryll Guppy and some other developers. I couldn't find it anywhere so I decided to build it from scratch.
What this does is allow you to measure volatility across various FX assets (I will apply other asset classes in the future that this is applicable to i.e. Crypto, Commodities, Blue Chip Stocks), and set realistic targets based off that volatility. Overall, this makes much more sense to me in the FX markets rather than support and resistance lines because it's based off the actual movement of the asset class. Market research shows that an asset class has a 80-85% chance to reach 75% of it's Average Daily Range (ADR).
Let's take a look at the daily ADR on the GBPNZD 15m chart. Notice how the values of the ADR act as real support and resistance based off the volatility of the asset. In this case, price did not quite reach the 75% ADR target.
Let's take a look at another example on EURNZD 15m chart. In this case, price hit the 75% target.
It's important to note that these levels do not bound the price. The probability that price exceeds it's 75% ADR is fairly low, but not impossible. Especially during important news events. Let's look at the recent USDCHF 15m chart for example.
Additionally, you can use these values to measure longer term movements (Weekly, and Monthly)
Here is a weekly view:
And a monthly view:
HOW I USE THIS
I use this in conjunction with some other indicators I've developed. Typically, I use range bars since I only care about price, not time. Additionally, averages are smoother when time is not taken into account and only price.
HOW THE CANDLE OPEN AND CLOSE IS CALCULATED
This is done based off of your own specific time zone and from the daily candle. So for me on PST, the daily candle will close at 1400. Once closed, a new ADR value is automatically calculated and added to the chart. There is an option to show past ADR values if you would like to see them or conduct additional research.
ATR+ Advanced Sessions ATR for DaterangeATR+ Advanced Sessions ATR for Daterange
The ATR+ adds the following additional filters to the stock ATR indicator by Tradingview:
- Calculates the overall average ATR for a user defined daterange, optionally filtered by trading session and selected weekdays, presented as a secondary line over the standard ATR line.
- Basic ATR line, with colour highlight to indicate the selected sessions, days and timeframe being calculated by the average ATR+ line.
- Average ATR+ line indicating the average of all ATRs within the defined timeframe, optionally filtered by instances of a selected trading session and selected weekdays.
- Customisable appearance.
- The ATR+ also includes the basic ATR configuration options typically found in the standard ATR by Tradingview, including period length and smoothing type. Defaults are set to the factory standards: 14 length, RMA smoothing type.
What Is the Average True Range (ATR)?
The ATR is a technical analysis tool that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range asset price for that period. Investopedia describes the ATR as follows:
"The average true range (ATR) is a technical analysis indicator, introduced by market technician J. Welles Wilder Jr. in his book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, that measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of an asset price for that period.
The true range indicator is taken as the greatest of the following: current high less the current low; the absolute value of the current high less the previous close; and the absolute value of the current low less the previous close. The ATR is then a moving average, generally using 14 days, of the true ranges."
For more information on the ATR and its calculations and use cases, see here:
Investopedia link here.
Tradingview link here.
Note
The indicator may time out if the number of bars being calculated is too long. If this happens, you will need to reduce the datetime range, or increase the chart timeframe in order to reduce the number of bars being calculated and the indicator will attempt to recalculate.
Williams Fractals + SMMAwilliams fractail + smoothed moving average. moving average. williams fractails with moving average , williams fractails + MA, smma
HL-AverageThis script extracts the highest price "ta.highest" and lowest price "ta.lowest" over a period of time, obtains the average value "array.avg" and plots it on a chart. At the same time, it also plots high and low prices, so you can use the volatility over a period of time and its center point as a reference for trading. The pine code is as simple as possible, so there is no difficulty. You can also change the period. We sincerely hope that this script will help you in your trading.
[co.n.g.] ADR 5/10/14/20Average Daily Range (ADR) over 5/10/14/20 Days
What it is
One of the oldest measurements of price volatility that is being used in technical and statistical trading is the range of a specific period of past days to estimate probability of chances, risk and price movements, as seen f.e. in
Molodovsky, N. (1967). Building a Stock Market Measure—A Case Study. Financial Analysts Journal, 23:3, 43-46 , DOI: 10.2469/faj.v23.n3.43.
Problem
After having tried all available community scripts I've encountered various indifferences, especially since Pine v5.
First, the anchor period changed, when I've switched between regular and extended trading hours.
- This meant, that the anchor switched between the official open of the day and the first bar of a new day beginnig at 00:00 UTC (or the corresponding timezone).
Second, thus in some scripts also changed the calculated average range, including or excluding pre market and after hours.
And therefor third, in many cases the distance between open and ADR high/low was indiffferent, putting one closer and the other further away.
Why is that?
After having tried seven different modes of calulation - from ta. to array, it appeared that especially since Pine v5 the calulation is lagging when calling
the request.security function and is thus rendering the calculations indifferent.
Especially the open is lagging and plotting delayed, about 15 minutes on a M1-chart or about 45 minutes on a M15 chart, which made id difficult to spot open (test) drives
- as f.e. described in Dalton, J. F., Jones, E. T., & Dalton, R. B. (1990). Mind over markets: power trading with market generated information. 1st edition . Probus. -
and estimating extremely strong or weak open moves.
While switching between regular and extended intraday charts, the open was either calculated on the open as request of "D" (open of the regular session)
and "1440" (which means full intraday since 00:00 UTC or the corresponding timezone), leading to undesired anchoring.
After having tried about five different anchoring periods and comparing the adr to @TradingView 's stock screener, there was no proper calulation or plotting possible,
if not partially hardcoded (being the least desired, elegant or flexible method).
Visualizing the problem
As described in the picture:
@sherwind 's ADR is plotting entirely wrong! I couldn't even figure out (even the source is available) whre the problem is rooted.
@treypeng 's ADR is anchored properly, but unfortunately the calculation is wrong.
Originality
As evident in the attached picture - and you are able to compare this to @TradingView 's stock screener - in this script as well the ADR is calculated PROPERLY
as well as the anchoring is set PROPERLY within the first tick of the session.
As matter of fact, you don't have to examine different timeframes, charts or sessions simoultaneously to see the correct levels and
you're able to ease observations and focus on your trading.
Innovation
There is no innovative approach, as described above, simply because this statistical approach is around since the 1960's.
Considering coding, neither is, but it is properly calculated and anchored.
What this script does
Anchoring at the first tick of the new New York session
Plotting the actual - not the past nor future - average day range (gray lines in picture)
Plotting the actual - not the past nor future - 75% average day range ( silver lines in picture)
Vizualising ADR breakouts by colouring the backround green (long breakout) or read (short breakout)
Selection methods
Keeping it simple stupid, as of now:
Abiliy to chose between 5/10/14/20 days
Additional
Theory says, that we are staying within the ADR of 75% every day.
_
Alas, there are some exceptions.
If price is breaking out of the ADR, we are likely to move in this direction for the rest of the day.
If price has broken out of the ADR on the previous day, ist highly unlikely to expect another ADR breakout day,
which doesn't mean that there might not appear a strong or weak second day.
Notes
Designed for intraday stock trading of the U.S. market.
Best (and easiest) chances are to be spotted in special conditions.
//Cheers,
//Constantine
VWAP - Volume-Weighted Average PriceVolume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is calculating day, week, month or year average price where transaction prices are weighted with the volume value.
This way script is estimating the average price based on both volume and price.
Features:
Drawing VWAP for days, weeks, months or years
Drawing initial periods (% with or without weekends)
Drawing last close value
3 standard deviation slots
Labels with values
Script Settings:
| Volume-Weighted Average Price visualization |
Type - Chart type selection:
D(ay) - Daily Volume Weighted Average Price
W(eek) - Weekly Volume Weighted Average Price
M(onth) - Monthly Volume Weighted Average Price
Y(ear) - Annual Volume Weighted Average Price
Draw VWAP - VWAP visiblity checkbox, color and line width used for VWAP visualization, checkbox for label with value.
Previous close - Drawing last VWAP close value. Color and line width used for drawing. checkbox for label with value.
Establishing period - Drawing initial area (described as % of the chart type period). Color picker for warning box background. VWAP is restarted with each period start. In the initial period VWAP value and it's deviations are not accurate and some traiding technics recommend to skip initial periods.
Include weekends - Checkbox if establishing period calculations should include weekends. Stock exchanges are not working during weekends (should be not checked) and crypto markets are working 7 days a week (should be checked).
| Standard deviation |
Slot1 - Standard deviation multiplier (0 is hiding), color and line width.
Slot2 - Standard deviation multiplier (0 is hiding), color and line width.
Slot3 - Standard deviation multiplier (o is hiding), color and line width.
Troubleshooting:
In case of any problems, please contact the author of the script. To improve speed of solving problem first check if script is drawn, and if there is a "!" character after script params. If you can see "!" character, move cursor over it for detail. Send message with error details, ticker and interval to us. The more precise will be your description the faster we will be able to help you.
Ultimate Moving Average Strategy CreatorHave you ever wanted to create your OWN strategy, but don't have coding experience? Well now you can.
With simple settings, but millions of potential strategies and combinations, this indicator / strategy lets YOU make ALL the rules.
Start by choosing up to 4 moving averages from all the various types - Simple, Exponential, Hull, Volume-Weighted, etc. Choose the period and choose price source.
Now the fun part.
You select your values to compare and how to compare them. Want to test if the Fast Moving Average crosses over the Slow Moving Average? No problem. Want to add an additional test to check the closing price is greater than the Fast Moving Average? Done.
With additonal options to set take profit % and stop loss %, as well as a date range and the option for 'Long Only' positions, you can instantly see the results of any strategy in the strategy tester, then simply make an adjustment and refine the criteria without having to know or understand any of the complex coding and scripting.
I have tried many popular moving average strategies, but irrespective of the results, the thing that stood out to me was how inflexible they were. If it was designed to test a triple crossover, that's all it could do. With this indicator, literally anything is possible and modifying the parameters couldn't be easier.
AlgoTrade DCA Bot Backtester█ OVERVIEW
This script can be used to backtest DCA Bots. It draws inspiration from 3Commas and has most settings that are available on 3Commas. It contains a few popular DCA Bot Presets that are well known in the community for you to test out! Preset used here: Kirigakure V4
█ FEATURES
DCA Preset (Custom, Standard TA,Urma Lite V3,Kirigakure V1,Kirigakure V3,Kirigakure V4)
Order Size Type (Fixed/% of equity to simulate compounding)
Base Order Size
Safety Order Size
Max Safety Trades Count
Price Deviation to open safety order %
Safety Order Volume Scale
Safety Order Step Scale
Take Profit %
Use ADR (Average Daily Range) as Take Profit
ADR length (if ADR as take profit is enabled)
Take Profit Type (% from total volume / % from base order)
Trailing Take Profit
Stop Loss
Deal Start Condition (Start ASAP) ▶ More Deal Starting Conditions will be added in the future
Bot Direction (Long / Short)
Start Time ▶ 1999-01-01 (Use this to always backtest the entire history)
End Time
This strategy also allows you to plot the Average Price and Take Profit of each trade, so it's easier to follow the trade and understand what's happening.
█ HOW TO USE
1. Select a DCA Preset and change the initial capital to the exact amount that is required (seen in the error message on top of the table). When using a Preset the following settings will be locked, meaning if you change them in the script's settings it won't have any effect:
Base Order Size
Safety Order Size
Max Safety Trades Count
Price Deviation to open safety order %
Safety Order Volume Scale
Safety Order Step Scale
Use ADR (Average Daily Range) as Take Profit
1.1 When using Presets you can choose the Order Size Type of Fixed or % of equity which simulates compounding
1.2 Choose a Direction and a Start and End Time
2. To backtest customized settings choose the preset "Custom"
2.1 All other settings are now "unlocked" and can be used
█ LIMITATIONS
Whenever a DCA preset is changed the initial_capital needs to be changed to the exact amount the settings require. If the initial_capital is not the same there will be an error of top of the table. To fix this error navigate to the Script's Settings and Properties and change the initial_capital to the same amount that is stated in the error.
DCA Bots with a high number of safety orders, e.g. 100, can run into an error that says "Maximum number of orders (9000) reached". If this error happens change the backtesting time to a shorter timeframe.
Using % of equity simulates compounding but is unrealistic because you cannot re-invest every single dollar
█ THANKS
This script in insipred by rouxam's "Backtesting 3commas DCA Bot v2" script
Volume and Trend reversal scalping scriptThe Vtrend X script allows for both trend based and scalping trading entries, it gives you all the trend and reversal information at hand that is necessary. It works best in a trending market.
The fundamental part of the script, is the volume weighted bands in blue and red, which help determine the trend and dynamic support and resistance . The blue band is a shorter length than the red band.
When the blue band dips below the red band, this tells us there is a downtrend. And when the blue band is trending above the red band, this is bullish uptrend price action. You will be able to note price whatever the timeframe really respects these bands, and you can use that to your advantage flicking through the high and low timeframes on where price will go next, combined with your own support and resistance levels.
Combined with the candle colors, which change whether they close above or below the main trend colored line (shown below), help identify a change in price action and trend. This allows for low timeframe plays also.
The uptrend and downtrend cicle signals are shown in a few different colors. Green and red are with the trend and have met all conditions. Orange and purple are against the trend calculations, and Olive circles risky trades against all the filters used to calculate signals.
The reversal signals, are the diamond plots in black, These also represent take profit areas as well.
Another key feature is the Daily / Weekly / Monthly and Yearly open levels displayed as colored dots. A lot of the plays i take use the Daily opens as key levels to take a trade off.
The indicator is designed to give you key information, but be quite customisable as well to suit your exact trading style.
Recommended timeframes i use for this script; Weekly (for key liquidity areas), Trading on the Daily, 6h, 4h, 2h, 1h and 25 minutes.
Backtested Settings and Pairs;
Pair - Timeframe - Signals Inputs - Reversal Inputs - ATR Multiplier - MA Filter
BTCUSD - 1 hr - 3 - 2.8 - 5.5 - NA
ETHUSD - 1 hr - 4 - 2.8 - 5.5 - NA
USDCAD - 1 hr - 4 - 2.8 - 5.5 - NA
GBPUSD - 1 hr - 4 - 2.8 - 5.5 - NA
US30 - 1 hr - 4 - 2.8 - 5.5 - NA
BTCUSD - 4 hr - 2.5 - 2.5 - 3.5 - NA
BTCUSD - 25 mins - 5 - 2.5 - 5.5 - NA
Pierre_crypt0 Medium/Long Term Trend EMAEMA / MA used by pierre_crypt0 to identify the medium / long-term trend
- Green = 100 EMA
- Blue = 200 MA
- Pink = 300 MA
- Black = 200 EMA
These three are used to refer to the short-term trend. The leading indicator he uses alongside horizontal levels to decide on his exposure/positioning.
Everyone keeps asking on Twitter, just compiled them into an indicator.
Pierre_crypt0 Short Term Trend EMAEMA/MA used by pierre_crypt0 to identify the short term trend
- Purple thin = 13 EMA
- Green stairs thin = 25 EMA
- Dotted blue thick = 32 EMA
These three are used to refer to the short term trend. Main indicator he uses alongside horizontal levels to decide of his exposure/positionning.
Everyone keep asking on Twitter, just compiled them into an indicator.
