It shows the structure of and
power below the surface of the markets. Elder-ray combines a trend-
following moving average with two oscillators to show when to enter
and exit long or short positions.
A moving average reflects the average consensus of value. The high of
each bar reflects the maximum power of bulls during that bar. The low of
each bar marks the maximum power of bears during that bar.
Elder-ray works by comparing the power of bulls and bears during each
bar with the average consensus of value. Bull Power reflects the maximum
power of bulls relative to the average consensus, and Bear Power the max-
imum power of bears relative to that consensus.
When the high of a bar is above the , Bull Power is positive. When
the entire bar sinks below the , which happens during severe de-
clines, Bull Power becomes negative. When the low of a bar is below the
, Bear Power is negative. When the entire bar rises above the ,
which happens during wild rallies, Bear Power becomes positive.
The slope of a moving average identifies the current trend of the mar-
ket. When it rises, it shows that the crowd is becoming more ; it is
a good time to be long. When it falls, it shows that the crowd is becoming
more ; it is a good time to be short. Prices keep getting away from
a moving average but snap back to it, as if pulled by a rubber band. Bull
Power and Bear Power show the length of that rubber band. Knowing the
“Buy low, sell high” sounds good, but traders and investors seem to have
been more comfortable buying Lucent above 70 than below 7. Perhaps they
are not as rational as the efficient market theorists would like us to believe?
Elder-ray gives rational traders a glimpse into what is going on below the sur-
face of the market.
When the trend, identified by the 22-day , is down and bulls are
under water, the rallies back to the surface mark shorting opportunities
normal height of Bull or Bear Power reveals how far prices are likely to get
away from their moving average before returning. Elder-ray offers one of
the best insights into where to take profits—at a distance away from the
moving average that equals the average Bull Power or Bear Power.
Elder-ray gives buy signals in uptrends when Bear Power turns nega-
tive and then ticks up. A negative Bear Power means that the bar is strad-
dling the , with its low below the average consensus of value. Waiting
for Bear Power to turn negative forces you to buy value rather than chase
runaway moves. The actual buy signal is given by an uptick of Bear Power,
which shows that bears are starting to lose their grip and the uptrend is
about to resume. Take profits at the upper channel line or when a trend-
following indicator stops rising. Profits may be greater if you ride the
uptrend to its conclusion, but taking profits at the upper channel line is
Elder-ray gives shorting signals in downtrends when Bull Power turns
positive and then ticks down. We can identify the downtrend by a declin-
ing daily or weekly . A positive Bull Power shows that the bar is strad-
dling the , with its high above the average consensus of value.
Waiting for Bull Power to turn positive before shorting forces you to sell
at or above value instead of chasing waterfall declines. The actual short-
ing signal is given by a downtick of Bull Power, which shows that bulls
are starting to slip and the downtrend is about to resume. Once short, take
profits at the lower channel line or when the trend-following indicator
stops falling, depending on your style.