Hello fellow traders, I'm excited to share with you the FluxFilter Trend Strategy, a trading approach I've developed for those interested in exploring trend-following strategies. My goal was to create something straightforward and accessible, so traders looking to refine their portfolios can easily integrate its features. By the end of this guide, I hope you'll have a solid grasp of how the FluxFilter Trend Strategy functions, appreciate its benefits, understand its potential drawbacks, and see how it might fit into various trading contexts.
I) Overview
The FluxFilter Trend Strategy is tailored to align with the market's long-term trend. It examines the price data from the previous year to gauge the market's overall trajectory by employing moving averages. Subsequently, within shorter timeframes, the strategy utilizes a combination of modified Supertrend, Hull Suite, and various trend-following and filtering techniques to generate buy or sell signals. Although its advanced take profit and stop loss mechanisms might initially present a learning curve, they are integral to the strategy's effectiveness. They are designed to secure gains by capturing prevailing trends and mitigating the impact of false reversal signals.
II) Deep Backtesting
Deep backtesting stands as a cornerstone in the development of trading strategies, offering a robust method for traders to assess the performance of their strategy against historical data. This process yields a retrospective view, illustrating how the strategy might have navigated through past market fluctuations, thereby shedding light on its potential robustness and areas for refinement. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that a strategy's performance can be influenced by a myriad of factors including market dynamics, the chosen timeframe, and the inherent attributes of the traded asset. Consequently, it's advisable to conduct thorough backtesting under various conditions to ascertain the strategy's reliability before applying it to actual trading scenarios.
III) Benefits
A primary advantage of the FluxFilter Trend Strategy is its proficiency in discerning genuine market trends from mere price fluctuations, thereby avoiding premature or uncertain trades. Unlike approaches that take high risks on speculative trades, this strategy prioritizes a high degree of confidence in the direction of the trade. It meticulously waits for a clear confirmation of the market trend. Once this certainty is established, the strategy promptly generates trade signals, ensuring that traders are positioned to capitalize on optimal market entry points without delay. This approach not only enhances the potential for profit but also aligns with a disciplined and methodical trading ethos.
IV) Applications
FluxFilter Trend Strategy can be applied across various timeframes, with a particular efficacy in those under 15 minutes. Its adaptable framework means it can be customized to cater to a variety of asset classes, encompassing stocks, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies. Initially, the strategy was specifically calibrated for low-volatile cryptocurrencies, as reflected in the default settings for stop loss and take profit values. It's important to recognize that the unique volatility and trend patterns of your selected market necessitate careful adjustments to these parameters. This fine-tuning of profit targets and stop loss thresholds is crucial for aligning the strategy with the specific dynamics of your chosen market, which I will discuss shortly.
V) Strategy's Logic
1. Trend Identification: My conviction lies in the power of trend trading to yield long-term gains. Central to the FluxFilter Trend Strategy is the Hull Suite indicator, a tool developed by InSilico, serving as one of the confirmation indicators. This indicator acts as a compass for trend direction; a price residing above the Hull Suite line signals an uptrend, potentially marking an entry point for a buy position or confirming it. In contrast, a price positioned below this line suggests a downtrend, potentially indicating a strategic moment to sell or confirming the sell.
2. Noise Reduction: The financial markets are known for their 'noise'—short-lived price movements that can obscure the true market direction. The FluxFilter Trend Strategy is designed to sift through this noise, thereby facilitating more lucid and informed trading decisions. It employs a set of straightforward yet innovative techniques to single out significant misleading fluctuations. This is achieved by analyzing recent bars to spot bars with unusually large bodies, which often represent misleading market noise.
3. Risk Management: A key facet of the strategy is its emphasis on pragmatic risk management. Traders are empowered to establish practical stop-loss and take-profit levels, tailoring these crucial parameters to the specific market they are engaging in. This customization is instrumental in optimizing long-term profitability, ensuring that the strategy adapts fluidly to the unique characteristics and volatility patterns of different trading environments.
VI) Strategy's Input Settings and Default Values
1. Modified Supertrend
i. Factor: Serving as a multiplier in the Average True Range (ATR) calculation, this parameter adjusts the distance of the Supertrend line relative to the price chart. Elevating the factor value widens the gap between the Supertrend line and price, offering a more conservative stance. On the flip side, diminishing the factor value pulls the Supertrend line closer to the price action, heightening its sensitivity. While the preset value is 1, you have the flexibility to modify this to suit your trading approach.
ii. ATR Length: This defines the count of bars that are incorporated into the ATR computation, directly influencing the Supertrend's adaptability to market changes. With a default setting of 30 bars, it strikes a balance, smoothing over short-term fluctuations while maintaining a meaningful sensitivity to market trends. Adjusting this parameter allows you to tailor the indicator's responsiveness to suit your trading strategy, considering the volatility and behavioral patterns of the asset you are trading.
2. Hull Suite
i. Hull Suite Length: Designed for capturing long-term trends, the Hull Suite Length is configured at 1000. Functioning comparably to moving averages, the Hull Suite features upper and lower bands, though these are not employed in our current strategy.
ii. Length Multiplier: It's advisable to maintain a minimal value for the Length Multiplier, prioritizing the optimization of the Hull Suite Length. Presently, it is set to 1.
3. Filtering Indicators
i. Fluctuation Filtering Percentage: It's advisable to set this parameter to ten times the size of the average bar in your specific market, as this helps effectively mitigate the impact of market fluctuations. While the initial default is 0.4(%), based on the BTCUSDT market, it's crucial to adjust this figure to align with the characteristics of different assets or markets you're trading in.
ii. Fluctuation Filtering Bars: This parameter designates the count of preceding bars to consider when assessing market fluctuations. It's fully customizable, allowing you to tailor it based on your market insights. The preset default is 3, a balance chosen to minimize susceptibility to potentially misleading signals.
iii. Trend Confirmation Percentage: This metric is pivotal for verifying the viability of a trend post-entry. If the trade doesn't achieve this percentage in profit, it indicates a deviation from the expected trend. Under such circumstances, it may be prudent to exit the trade prematurely rather than awaiting the stop-loss trigger. It's recommended to set this parameter at half the size of the average candle body for the market you're analyzing. The initial default is set at 0.2(%).
4. StopLoss and TakeProfit
i. StopLoss and TakeProfit Settings: Two distinct approaches are available. Semi-Automatic StopLoss/TakeProfit Setting and Manual StopLoss/TakeProfit Setting. The Semi-Automatic mode streamlines the process by allowing you to input values for a 5-minute timeframe, subsequently auto-adjusting these values across various timeframes, both lower and higher. Conversely, the Manual mode offers full control, enabling you to meticulously define TakeProfit values for each individual timeframe.
ii. TakeProfit Threshold # and TakeProfit Value #: Imagine this mechanism as an ascending staircase. Each step represents a range, with the lower boundary (TakeProfit Value) designed to close the trade upon being reached, and the upper boundary (TakeProfit Threshold) upon being hit, propelling the trade to the next level, and forming a new range. This stair-stepping approach enhances risk management and has the potential to increase profitability. The pre-set configurations are tailored for volatile markets, such as BTCUSDT. It's advisable to devote time to tailoring these settings to your specific market, aiming to achieve optimal results based on backtesting.
iii. StopLoss Value: In line with its name, this value marks the limit of loss you're prepared to accept should the market trend go against your expectations. It's crucial to note that once your asset reaches the first TakeProfit range, the initial StopLoss value becomes obsolete, supplanted by the first TakeProfit Value. The default StopLoss value is pegged at 1.8(%), a figure worth considering in your trading strategy.
VII) Entry Conditions
The principal element that triggers the signal is the Modified Supertrend. Additional indicators serve as confirmatory tools. Nonetheless, to refine your strategy effectively, it's crucial to fine-tune the parameters. This involves adjusting input variables such as take profit levels, threshold parameters, and the filtering values discussed previously.
VIII) Exit Conditions
The strategy stipulates exit conditions primarily governed by stop loss and take profit parameters. On infrequent occasions, if the trend lacks confirmation post-entry, the strategy mandates an exit upon the issuance of a reverse signal (whether confirmed or unconfirmed) by the strategy itself.
Good Luck!!
I) Overview
The FluxFilter Trend Strategy is tailored to align with the market's long-term trend. It examines the price data from the previous year to gauge the market's overall trajectory by employing moving averages. Subsequently, within shorter timeframes, the strategy utilizes a combination of modified Supertrend, Hull Suite, and various trend-following and filtering techniques to generate buy or sell signals. Although its advanced take profit and stop loss mechanisms might initially present a learning curve, they are integral to the strategy's effectiveness. They are designed to secure gains by capturing prevailing trends and mitigating the impact of false reversal signals.
II) Deep Backtesting
Deep backtesting stands as a cornerstone in the development of trading strategies, offering a robust method for traders to assess the performance of their strategy against historical data. This process yields a retrospective view, illustrating how the strategy might have navigated through past market fluctuations, thereby shedding light on its potential robustness and areas for refinement. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that a strategy's performance can be influenced by a myriad of factors including market dynamics, the chosen timeframe, and the inherent attributes of the traded asset. Consequently, it's advisable to conduct thorough backtesting under various conditions to ascertain the strategy's reliability before applying it to actual trading scenarios.
III) Benefits
A primary advantage of the FluxFilter Trend Strategy is its proficiency in discerning genuine market trends from mere price fluctuations, thereby avoiding premature or uncertain trades. Unlike approaches that take high risks on speculative trades, this strategy prioritizes a high degree of confidence in the direction of the trade. It meticulously waits for a clear confirmation of the market trend. Once this certainty is established, the strategy promptly generates trade signals, ensuring that traders are positioned to capitalize on optimal market entry points without delay. This approach not only enhances the potential for profit but also aligns with a disciplined and methodical trading ethos.
IV) Applications
FluxFilter Trend Strategy can be applied across various timeframes, with a particular efficacy in those under 15 minutes. Its adaptable framework means it can be customized to cater to a variety of asset classes, encompassing stocks, commodities, forex, and cryptocurrencies. Initially, the strategy was specifically calibrated for low-volatile cryptocurrencies, as reflected in the default settings for stop loss and take profit values. It's important to recognize that the unique volatility and trend patterns of your selected market necessitate careful adjustments to these parameters. This fine-tuning of profit targets and stop loss thresholds is crucial for aligning the strategy with the specific dynamics of your chosen market, which I will discuss shortly.
V) Strategy's Logic
1. Trend Identification: My conviction lies in the power of trend trading to yield long-term gains. Central to the FluxFilter Trend Strategy is the Hull Suite indicator, a tool developed by InSilico, serving as one of the confirmation indicators. This indicator acts as a compass for trend direction; a price residing above the Hull Suite line signals an uptrend, potentially marking an entry point for a buy position or confirming it. In contrast, a price positioned below this line suggests a downtrend, potentially indicating a strategic moment to sell or confirming the sell.
2. Noise Reduction: The financial markets are known for their 'noise'—short-lived price movements that can obscure the true market direction. The FluxFilter Trend Strategy is designed to sift through this noise, thereby facilitating more lucid and informed trading decisions. It employs a set of straightforward yet innovative techniques to single out significant misleading fluctuations. This is achieved by analyzing recent bars to spot bars with unusually large bodies, which often represent misleading market noise.
3. Risk Management: A key facet of the strategy is its emphasis on pragmatic risk management. Traders are empowered to establish practical stop-loss and take-profit levels, tailoring these crucial parameters to the specific market they are engaging in. This customization is instrumental in optimizing long-term profitability, ensuring that the strategy adapts fluidly to the unique characteristics and volatility patterns of different trading environments.
VI) Strategy's Input Settings and Default Values
1. Modified Supertrend
i. Factor: Serving as a multiplier in the Average True Range (ATR) calculation, this parameter adjusts the distance of the Supertrend line relative to the price chart. Elevating the factor value widens the gap between the Supertrend line and price, offering a more conservative stance. On the flip side, diminishing the factor value pulls the Supertrend line closer to the price action, heightening its sensitivity. While the preset value is 1, you have the flexibility to modify this to suit your trading approach.
ii. ATR Length: This defines the count of bars that are incorporated into the ATR computation, directly influencing the Supertrend's adaptability to market changes. With a default setting of 30 bars, it strikes a balance, smoothing over short-term fluctuations while maintaining a meaningful sensitivity to market trends. Adjusting this parameter allows you to tailor the indicator's responsiveness to suit your trading strategy, considering the volatility and behavioral patterns of the asset you are trading.
2. Hull Suite
i. Hull Suite Length: Designed for capturing long-term trends, the Hull Suite Length is configured at 1000. Functioning comparably to moving averages, the Hull Suite features upper and lower bands, though these are not employed in our current strategy.
ii. Length Multiplier: It's advisable to maintain a minimal value for the Length Multiplier, prioritizing the optimization of the Hull Suite Length. Presently, it is set to 1.
3. Filtering Indicators
i. Fluctuation Filtering Percentage: It's advisable to set this parameter to ten times the size of the average bar in your specific market, as this helps effectively mitigate the impact of market fluctuations. While the initial default is 0.4(%), based on the BTCUSDT market, it's crucial to adjust this figure to align with the characteristics of different assets or markets you're trading in.
ii. Fluctuation Filtering Bars: This parameter designates the count of preceding bars to consider when assessing market fluctuations. It's fully customizable, allowing you to tailor it based on your market insights. The preset default is 3, a balance chosen to minimize susceptibility to potentially misleading signals.
iii. Trend Confirmation Percentage: This metric is pivotal for verifying the viability of a trend post-entry. If the trade doesn't achieve this percentage in profit, it indicates a deviation from the expected trend. Under such circumstances, it may be prudent to exit the trade prematurely rather than awaiting the stop-loss trigger. It's recommended to set this parameter at half the size of the average candle body for the market you're analyzing. The initial default is set at 0.2(%).
4. StopLoss and TakeProfit
i. StopLoss and TakeProfit Settings: Two distinct approaches are available. Semi-Automatic StopLoss/TakeProfit Setting and Manual StopLoss/TakeProfit Setting. The Semi-Automatic mode streamlines the process by allowing you to input values for a 5-minute timeframe, subsequently auto-adjusting these values across various timeframes, both lower and higher. Conversely, the Manual mode offers full control, enabling you to meticulously define TakeProfit values for each individual timeframe.
ii. TakeProfit Threshold # and TakeProfit Value #: Imagine this mechanism as an ascending staircase. Each step represents a range, with the lower boundary (TakeProfit Value) designed to close the trade upon being reached, and the upper boundary (TakeProfit Threshold) upon being hit, propelling the trade to the next level, and forming a new range. This stair-stepping approach enhances risk management and has the potential to increase profitability. The pre-set configurations are tailored for volatile markets, such as BTCUSDT. It's advisable to devote time to tailoring these settings to your specific market, aiming to achieve optimal results based on backtesting.
iii. StopLoss Value: In line with its name, this value marks the limit of loss you're prepared to accept should the market trend go against your expectations. It's crucial to note that once your asset reaches the first TakeProfit range, the initial StopLoss value becomes obsolete, supplanted by the first TakeProfit Value. The default StopLoss value is pegged at 1.8(%), a figure worth considering in your trading strategy.
VII) Entry Conditions
The principal element that triggers the signal is the Modified Supertrend. Additional indicators serve as confirmatory tools. Nonetheless, to refine your strategy effectively, it's crucial to fine-tune the parameters. This involves adjusting input variables such as take profit levels, threshold parameters, and the filtering values discussed previously.
VIII) Exit Conditions
The strategy stipulates exit conditions primarily governed by stop loss and take profit parameters. On infrequent occasions, if the trend lacks confirmation post-entry, the strategy mandates an exit upon the issuance of a reverse signal (whether confirmed or unconfirmed) by the strategy itself.
Good Luck!!
릴리즈 노트:
User
I believe it's advantageous to examine the backtesting results for
BTCUSDT
on a 5-minute timeframe, extending as far back as possible (2017). The inputs adhere to the default settings. Notably, the analysis ensures:
# NO repainting
# NO overfitting
Backtesting screenshot
BITsPIP
I believe it's advantageous to examine the backtesting results for
BTCUSDT
on a 5-minute timeframe, extending as far back as possible (2017). The inputs adhere to the default settings. Notably, the analysis ensures: # NO repainting
# NO overfitting
Backtesting screenshot
BITsPIP