Vesta (asteroid) speed provides a good indicator to determine the periods of dominant trend. During the direct phase (when the speed accelerated and reached highest value) we can observe that BTCUSD experienced a clear trend, perfect for trend following. In the contrary when speed was decelerating and speed started backward motion (retrograde) the price was in congestion experiencing sideways moves. From statistical analysis we noted that when Vesta speed is in direct motion 56% of the days resulted in price increase. When speed was stationary (starting to move retrograde) we observed that in 62% of the days the price decreased, finally, during retrograde phase in 54% of the days the price increased. Is clear that direct motion also offers more bullish days. However, in the statistical analysis of the price is not evident the price change range, with visual exploration in the chart is clear that when Vesta speed is in direct phase the range of the price is wider, therefore, direct motion provides the most interesting risk/reward ratio.
Note: The Vesta speed indicator is based on an ephemeris array that covers years 2010 to 2030, prior or after this years the data is not available, this daily ephemeris are based on UTC time so in order to align properly with the price bars times you should set UTC as your chart timezone.